YouGov’s weekly mayoral election poll for the Evening Standard is out – this will the last Monday poll, though there may yet be a final eve-of-poll effort – and with four days to go shows Boris Johnson with a solid lead. The first round voting intention figures are JOHNSON 46%(+2), LIVINGSTONE 35%(-2) (Brian Paddick’s figure doesn’t seem to be in the Standard’s report). After second preferences are reallocated Boris leads Ken by 55% to 45%, suggesting that second preferences are very marginally in favour of Ken, but not by enough to have a significant effect.

With so little time to go Boris Johnson must be almost assured of victory… if the poll is correct. In contrast to YouGov’s figures the final MORI and mruk polls of the campaign showed very small leads for Ken. It boils down to either Johnson having a secure lead if you believe YouGov, or Livingstone barely ahead if you believe MORI and mruk. I’ll be putting up a post looking at some of the reasons why the polls may be showing such contrasting figures later today.

12 Responses to “YouGov – Boris ahead by 11”

  1. Wow – Someone is going to have a lot of bragging rights vs those looking shamefaced in their polling.

    William Hill seem to believe YouGov as Boris remains their odds-on favourite (albeit not as strongly as a few weeks ago) but who knows really.

  2. Things are getting a bit confusing now. On Friday we had a MORI poll giving Livingstone a 6% lead and now this one gives Johnson a 10% lead.

  3. I think my comment got eaten up. I said something like ‘Off-topicish, why does the weighting at the back of a Yougov poll for region differ so much from that on the front page’. for example, this one,

    (and click through to the full data – it’s the last DT one)

    weights London as 339 responded, 260 weighted, which is 13%.

    But on the last page ‘YouGov weighting data’, it says it is 468 unweighted, 393 weighted, which is 19%.

    (by the way all these polls say copyright 2005 on the last page, which I assume is an oversight)

  4. Oh, must have been a delay – well both comments say much the same thing, the 2nd version is clearer.

  5. Matt – It’ll be because one is showing the ITV television regions and one is showing the government regions (the TV region is the bigger one!)

  6. I look forward to your later post Anthony. It all seems slightly up in the air.

    Personally I struggle to see the specific appeal of Boris to most Londoner in anything other than he’s not Labour. Even then I’d have thought that Ken had enough personal credit to overcome the Labour associations (if only barely) – remember this was a man who originally ran against them for mayor.

    The neck and neck polls make sense to me, an easy Boris win doesn’t, but then I’ve not lived in the city for a couple of years now, maybe things have changed… (though not noticably on the several dozen times I’ve been back).

    Any thoughts on how the votes for the non-big 3 parties might hold up when squeezed? The yougov figures seem to show that most Londoners haven’t worked out how to use the 1st/2nd vote to best effect as a protest vote (many seeming to vote labout 1/green 2 rather than the other way round).

  7. Ah, that explains it. So slightly more on-topic, how do Yougov choose their sample for the London polls – is it self-selecting ‘do you have a vote’ or is it based on addresses? I’m just wondering as I haven’t updated my address (i still live in London so it wouldn’t make any difference) since i joined, and I suppose until I get near cheque time, I wouldn’t have done.

  8. Andy,

    The more YouGov polls I see the more I’m convinced that they give a bonus to the person or party in the lead which might explain the large gap between pollsters.

  9. Matthew – by postcode, so some people might be there who shouldn’t because they have moved house and not updated their profile (though occasionally some registration questions are re-asked to spot such things)

  10. Geesh,

    YouGov, why boover…?

    NEU Labour/BBC will not accept any polling data that does not fit their “norm”.

    As a Lundunah, I have spoken to many, yet not enough. The message will be spoken on May 2nd.

    So can we all accept this poll, and not pre-judge London…? Please!

    [This comment is funded by the typist. No political party has, or should have had, any statement otherwise.]

    One thanks you…. :)

  11. “Matthew – by postcode, so some people might be there who shouldn’t because they have moved house and not updated their profile (though occasionally some registration questions are re-asked to spot such things)”

    The reason I wonder is that according to the latest data London migration in 2006 was about 400,000 out and in, which is a huge churn, 7% or so in a year.

  12. Where can I find the full tables for the second mruk poll? If they’re serious about applying for BPC membership perhaps they should set up an archive on their website…