YouGov’s weekly mayoral election poll for the Evening Standard is out – this will the last Monday poll, though there may yet be a final eve-of-poll effort – and with four days to go shows Boris Johnson with a solid lead. The first round voting intention figures are JOHNSON 46%(+2), LIVINGSTONE 35%(-2) (Brian Paddick’s figure doesn’t seem to be in the Standard’s report). After second preferences are reallocated Boris leads Ken by 55% to 45%, suggesting that second preferences are very marginally in favour of Ken, but not by enough to have a significant effect.
With so little time to go Boris Johnson must be almost assured of victory… if the poll is correct. In contrast to YouGov’s figures the final MORI and mruk polls of the campaign showed very small leads for Ken. It boils down to either Johnson having a secure lead if you believe YouGov, or Livingstone barely ahead if you believe MORI and mruk. I’ll be putting up a post looking at some of the reasons why the polls may be showing such contrasting figures later today.