What I assume is mruk’s final poll on the mayoral election is published in the Sunday Times tomorrow. The topline voting intention figures, with changes from last week, are JOHNSON 43%(-1), LIVINGSTONE 44%(-1), PADDICK 9%(nc). Once second preferences are re-allocated Ken Livingstone is projected to win by 2 points over Boris Johnson, 51% to 49%.

In practice this has Ken and Boris almost neck and neck, an even tighter race than MORI indicated in their final poll of the campaign a few days ago, which had Ken 3 points ahead on the first round and four points ahead on the second round (though MORI had a higher level of support for others and for Brian Paddick – the latter difference almost certainly because mruk did not include Paddick in the question prompt).

In the week ahead there should still be London mayoral polls by ICM (who showed Johnson 1 point ahead in a poll almost a month back now) and YouGov (who have shown large, but narrowing, Boris Johnson leads up until now). It remains to be seen whether all the pollsters converge together as they did before the 2005 general election, or whether they continue to project contrasting results.


28 Responses to “mruk’s final London poll shows Ken ahead”

  1. How likely is it that those who need reminding of Paddick’s exsistance, will bother to go out and vote for him?

    I am not directing this just at him. It cuts across the board.
    We saw the same when Sian Berry was included.

    How about just finding out if you are likely to vote [if that is part of your calculations] and then just saying, ‘Who For?’.

    Chances are if they can tell you, there is a more than half chance they mean it.

    [Feel free to put my well thought out inspired point to Peter Kelner who can copy my carefully crafted question free gratis and with my compliments :-) ]

  2. One would imagine that the swing back to Livingstone is a result of the usual swing back towards to incumbant approaching polling day. If Livingstone wins the local election results will basically be completely irrelervant as far as the media is concerned, even if the Conservtaives outpolled Labour by 20 points.

  3. Let’s just see – London is a complex place with a very diverse population – i am not faltering with my prediction of a Johnson win – it’s on the cards , it’ll be close – but the outcome is inevitable !! Hold steady.

  4. If Ken is no further than about 2 maybe 3 percent ahead in any polls between now and Thursday then I think Boris will win because of higher turnout amongst Tory voters.

    However, as a Tory I am nervous about the outcome because the last time the party had a really big/significant single electoral success was in 1992, when I was 5 years old. I’m used to the party doing relatively well in local elections, but the London Mayorality is on a different scale to winning district/county council seats etc.

    I’m keeping my fingers crossed for Boris.

  5. to close to call for me but the asemberly will be conservative, i do hope boris wins london needs a new voice, and i don’t evenlive their.

  6. Of those 10/10 certain to vote (64%), mruk have found a 1% Boris lead – Smithson. The reported figures were those 80% certain to vote, but I doubt turnout will even be as high as the “10/10 certain’s” claim.

  7. What about the impact of postal votes? If those postal voters cast their vote last week how accurate can subsequent opinion polls be?
    Postal votes can now account for up to a third of the turnout and would for the most part be done by now. This is something no one has mentioned yet, as far I know.

  8. Hey Anthony, well done on the new look. Looks really cool. :D

  9. Scoot,

    It depends a lot on the numbers and who voted.

    Anthony,

    Good new look.

  10. This election is actually an invitation for as many people as possible to vote for minor parties because they know that their second preferences will be used in the Ken v Boris battle. In other words, there’s a big incentive in not voting for either Ken or Boris as a first preference because it’s obviously going to come down to those two anyway.

  11. Scoot – at the last general election it was something that some of the pollsters included in their likelihood to vote questions, you could rate your chances of voting or indicate that you had already voted by post, with those people who had voted by post counted as absolute definites.

    You won’t see too much about it because it is illegal to publish them alone. You cannot publish anything based on how people who have voted already say they’ve voted – i.e. exit polls – until the polls close.

    A Populus poll before the last European elections, where whole regions voted by post, was investigated about this. It was referred to the electoral commission who in negotiation with the BPC came up with guidelines that you can include people who have voted by post in polls before the election, but you can’t publish any figures for just those who have already voted by post, they have to be aggregated in with the rest.

  12. Anthony, many thansk for your answer.

    Andy you make a very interesting point but if that was the case wouldn’t the minor parties be showing higher scores in the opinion polls?

    However following your line of thought, I fear the BNP may break 5% barrier and have an assembly member after next Thursday. They have been polling fairly well in local by-election results so far this year.

  13. It looks like rain next week. Do you think this will affect campaigning and turnout? If so, will it damage Livingstone?

  14. Like the new look for the site.

  15. It’s not too common for local elections to be decided by those who make their choice at the last minute but I feel this is the case with the Ken/Boris battle. While I personally struggle to understand why anyone would vote for Ken, it is clear that he has a considerable following across the great wen. This will be the big deal come Thursday and will be extremely tight.

  16. Anthony. A post I made a few minutes ago seems to have got lost. I asked about the summary and graphs for each pollster. Can’t find them – probably my stupidity.

  17. Re: the new look…,

    Can you change the CCS? The font you use appears to be so small. Italics and bold attributes also appear limp.

    Otherwise nice layout. [Cannot go wrong with the default grey!]

    If the font issue is too difficult, I will have to + my Firefox browser. [Boo-hoo!] It just looks silly, as the default textfield font is the same as the old look-n-feel!

    P.S.: Hitting + really to restore the default font) really effs up the layout…! :(

  18. Ok,

    The parser requires me to rephrase:

    + should be [ctrl]+[+], and
    – should be [ctrl]+[-].

    This should help clarify my (slightly) earlier post…. ;)

  19. Collin – original post is there, you just added it to a different post! Anyway, the answer is they are linked to from the menu bar at the top of the page, under POLLS -> VOTING INTENTION then theres a list of pollsters with a page for each.

  20. I still think Boris will win and that the Ipsos MORI questions introduce framing errors. However there are the data:
    * Weighted Moving Average 42:41:11
    * YouGov Retro. bias +2.4 Std 2.9 (vs WMA 4.5/2.8)
    * I/MORI Retro. bias -2.3 Std 5.2 (vs WMA -1.8/3.3)
    * mrUK Retro bias -4.4 (vs WMA -4.1)

  21. Anthony. Many thanks.

  22. Anthony, there’s a report from a poster on pb.com that;

    “Tomorrow morning’s YouGov poll will show that Boris’s lead has increased to 11%”

    Could you possibly address that in some way?

  23. Political Capital – Nope, I can’t.

    With YouGov polls I normally know the figures in advance, but obviously can’t report them, confirm them or say anything about them until the client publishes them.

  24. Thanks, your information about procedure has been helpful anyway. Have a nice evening (what’s left of it).

    Regards,

    PC.

  25. Must admit I also use Firefox and I agree that there are issues concerned with the fonts appearance in the new layout….

  26. I use FireFox, like the new layout, but the fonts do appear a bit smaller than normal, could do with going up 1 or 2 points it seems to me. The comment field does seem ‘normal’.

    As for the reported 11% Boris lead, it seems to have been confirmed now! No convergence then for the pollsters, someone will have egg on their face.

  27. where is the info on this supposed 11 point yougov johnson lead?