Comments on: Sunday Polls

By: Douglas

Douglas — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 13:33:37 +0000

As well as the YouGov poll was saying the Tories were doing in Scotland I highly doubt they’ll get 12 seats in Scotland.

These must be the likliest Tory seats in Scotland in my view:

Dumfries and Galloway (rising SNP vote plus decent increase in Tory vote must make this very likely for Peter Duncan to snatch from Russell Brown)

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (good result in 2005 followed by gain at Holyrood in 2007 – while the Tories may not be overwhelming favourites they will be looking to take it)

After that it gets more tricky. The Perthshire and Angus seats look vulnerable on the basis of being marginal but with a very good SNP showing this may take them out of realistic range for the moment, though Perthshire at least should remain marginal.

East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh South West could be realistic propositions, the latter due to Darling + Pentlands being Tory, the former as a middle class seat, plus recording a good Tory performance in May 2007, should be more vulnerable than most to the Conservatives. Stirling may be another but the Conservatives fell back there in May.

My judgement is that the Conservatives should hope to get three, be pleased with five and delighted with anything over that. It also depends upon whether the YouGov showing of 22% is accurate or, being a subsample, worthless.

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 12:34:34 +0000

Phillip – yes. If the Conservatives do better in marginal seats than elsewhere it will make the distribution of the vote across the country more favourable to them and the boundaries appear less biased.

By: Phillip

Phillip — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 11:50:36 +0000

Anthony – if the Tories are doing better in marginal seats (as this NoW poll would suggest) then does this mean that the bias in the electoral system against the Tories is now unwinding? If this is the case then does this mean the Tories would actually need to be ahead nationally by fewer votes in order to secure a majority?

By: Reversepsychology

Reversepsychology — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 11:42:17 +0000

Re Mike (the oracle) Richardson:

There is an incredibly safe New Labour seat in the North East of England that you have missed in your analysis of marginal swings – (Simply because it has never been thought of as marginal) – That of Houghton and Washington.

Always gone to Labour – Always will?

In the Washington constituencies aligned with Houghton-Le-Spring, one by one the Council seats are being won by the Tories.

And in Houghton-Le-Spring, the old quarry that sits above the Town centre itself, is now a land fill/toxic dumping ground, thanks to New Labour councillors.

R.A.T.S. – (Residents against toxic site) the independent group, fighting to close this poisonous monstrosity, are picking off council seats one by one.

http://www.houghton-rats.org.uk/index.html

If in the next general election Councillor Colin Wakefield (R.A.T.S.) – and a natural Tory, (for this fact see “blog” on R.A.T.S. website) stood as an Independent candidate, (as he is threatening to do) he could well pick this once incredibly safe New Labour seat off.

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 08:44:49 +0000

Mike – “all i am saying is that the British deserve better now & the POLLS and the media are reflecting that now.”

Mike, that is the part that this site isn’t the right place for. We should all be discussing what we think will happen, not what should happen.