Comments on: MORI’s monthly poll

By: collin

collin — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 18:09:15 +0000

Anthony. What has happened to the very useful summary of each of the pollsters, with graphs? All I seem to be getting now is the pollsters’ blog sites.Hope you haven’t discontinued it- or is it now shown elsewhere?

By: UK Polling Report » Blog Archive » Sunday Polls

UK Polling Report » Blog Archive » Sunday Polls — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 12:05:47 +0000

[...] [...] Sunday Polls 10 Anthony Wells, The Impartial Observer, Mark Senior, Ralph [...] MORI’s monthly poll 13 Fluffy Thoughts (E.D.P.), Mike, John Charlesworth, The Impartial Observer [...] MORI [...]

By: Fluffy Thoughts (E.D.P.)

Fluffy Thoughts (E.D.P.) — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 22:26:05 +0000

If the polls are bad, tomorrow’s Mail on Sunday are not going to make the PM feel any better. The only hope for nEU Labour: it could be another internet-hoax….

By: Mike

Mike — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 19:34:34 +0000

John

I think not but see tomorrow’s polls in the Sun (Marginals) and in Sunday telegraph (Scotland) the results of which are already out.

By: John Charlesworth

John Charlesworth — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 18:20:29 +0000

Like some other comments there seems to be move to others of whom we cannot easily identify. The mood is swinging against labour but not necesarily to an obvious replacement.

By: The Impartial Observer

The Impartial Observer — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 16:17:17 +0000

Re; The gains the LD’s are showing in the national polls. I remember some commentator, (I can’t remember who!) saying when the LD’s were at 11-12% that that was probably their core vote and their good performance over the last 25 years has been largely down to bad times for the 2 main parties, think how the Alliance ate into Labour in the 1980’s and how the LD’s have profitted off Tory unpopularity since 1992. Now Labour show signs of struggling and the Tories are resurgeant. Obviously the election is still 2 years off but it looks like the LD’s are going to be mauled by the Tories in England and the SNP in Scotland, that is going to be partially offset by gains off Labour. That is where I think the LD rise is coming from, disillusioned Labour voters.

By: Scoot

Scoot — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 15:49:37 +0000

Adrian, in my campaigning exeprience, the answer to your question is… yes. Look and hat happneded last year in places like Torbay and Bournemouth.

By: Adrian

Adrian — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 15:25:32 +0000

Phillip, so are you suggesting that the tactical voting may go against labour next time. In this case do you think the Tories will win back seats from the Lib Dems in the south that they lost during the slaughter of 1997

By: Matthew

Matthew — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 14:43:19 +0000

One thing I’ve noticed about the polls is – even on YouGov’s figures, or especially on YouGov’s figures depnending on which you look at – Livingstone is running ahead of Labour’s own share of the vote better than he was in 2004. So can we conclude from this that the reason he might not win is simply because of Labour’s unpopularity, rather than his advisors, or meeting whathisname, etc?

By: Philip Thompson

Philip Thompson — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 10:45:22 +0000

Mike, I used to be of the opinion that it was a two-way fight and that is why the Lib-Dems were polling in the low-teens, now however it is looking less and less like a two-way fight and the Lib-Dems are improving.

1997 was not a two-way fight, it was a one-way slaughter by Labour and the Lib-Dems although on a lower percentage profited with their highest ever modern seat share.

Come 2010 it is becoming increasingly possible that the question will not be the result of the election, but how heavy a defeat Brown will face. This is by no means guaranteed, but is a good possibility.

I suspect in that eventuality of a ‘kick them out’ ‘97-style election the Lib-Dems will do better (on seats at least) than in a closely-fought two-party battle ‘92-style.

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Anthony, are we to expect another YouGov poll on the Mayoralty soon?