MORI show Ken ahead

A London voting intention poll by Ipsos MORI for Unison has voting intentions has topline voting intentions of JOHNSON 38%, LIVINGSTONE 41%, PADDICK 12%. Once second preferences are reallocated Ken Livingstone leads by 6% over Johnson. It was conducted between the 23rd and 24th April.

Ipsos MORI also asked a question about whether people were actually registered to vote, though bizarrely the implication in this Guardian article is that they were still included in the topline figures, since once they were excluded Livingstone’s lead fell to 4% on second preferences.

No other details yet. There should be more mayoral polls from YouGov, mruk, ICM and – possibly – another Ipsos MORI to come before polling day on Thursday. Unless other pollsters also show a Livingstone lead the race is looking close enough to produce a real embarrassment for at least one pollster.

UPDATE: it appears the poll was leaked to the Guardian, and shouldn’t have been published yet. It’s the Guardian who emphasised the 6 point lead that included people who aren’t eligible to vote, MORI I assume will be correctly excluding them from their topline figures! Over at Mike Smithson’s site he also says that, in response to his comment that this is the poll MORI will be judged upon for the mayoral election, MORI are pointing out “that the fieldwork was carried out more than a week before the election and a third of respondents said they might change their mind.” MORI are quite correct in this – in all fairness a poll does need to be done within a couple of the days of the election to really be compared to the result…but it does sound like they are hedging their bets already. Whether it is entirely fair or not, if polling companies’ final figures are showing different winners for the London election, it is going to reflect very badly on the companies who get it wrong.


22 Responses to “MORI show Ken ahead”

  1. Hi Anthony, do you have any inkling as to when YouGov, mruk, ICM may be publishing new polls?

  2. I think if you look at Mike’s site, you may get some idea of the Guardian’s attitude.
    He has spoken to the pollster about the leak that led to the Guardian’s misleading article.

  3. I think This is a new Ipsos Mori Poll for general voting intention.
    CON 41 [+1] LAB 31 [-4] LD 19[+1]

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/_assets/polls/2008/pdf/london-mayor-poll-for-unison-23-24-april-2008s.pd
    I know the link says UNISON and so looks like the Mayoral, but seems to be general voting intention aswell.

    It shows a smaller lead than most recent You Gov, but shows a bigger Labour drop since last time.

  4. The April Ipsos Monitor figures are visible on their website they are with changes to their March monitor for absolutely certain to vote Con 40 M?C Lab 31 -4 LibDem 19 +1 Others 10 +3

  5. http://www.ipsos-mori.com/_assets/polls/2008/pdf/london-mayor-poll-for-unison-23-24-april-2008s.pdf
    A new IPSOS MORI GE voting intention [I know the link says Mayoral]
    CON 41 up 1, LAB 31 down 4, LD 19 up 1

  6. Oh sorry. My first earlier post looked like it had dissappeared into cyber thingy.

  7. But I still beat Mark. Yeah!
    Hi Mark.

  8. Except he was right about the numbers, but don’t tell him.

  9. I bet the party leaders secretly wonder if a victory in London for their man is a good thing.
    Wouldn’t Cameron be better with Red Ken scraping in and siding with disgruntled Labour MPs?
    Wouldn’t Brown be better with a win for gaffe-prone Boris?

  10. Anthony,

    Have we seen any breakdown in MRUK polls for Mayoralty between inner / outer boroughs ?

    If polling companies are not weighting their sample between Inner/Outer London they may well be finding stronger support for Ken than Boris only to see the opposite result next week.

    I saw something in a paper earlier this week which suggested that Ken had a large lead in Inner London, while Boris was ahead in Outer London. However, since there are nearly twice as many voters in the outer boroughs, and they may be more likely to turn out, Ken would need to have twice as big a lead in innner London to overcome the suburbs.

    Is YouGov able to weight its London poll samples to identify this differential ?

  11. I’ve just seen the seats the Tories would gain in London if the mruk poll was repeated at a GE.

    Almost all of them have a very high avreage wage. Like Finchley&Golders Green,Carshalton and Wallington and Battersea.

    How did the Tories fail to win these seats for so long?

  12. Paul H-J. At home now so I can’t check, but I think the YouGov or sampling does split people between inner and outer London.

    Political Capital. I know exactly when the YouGov one(s) are coming out, but you’ll have to wait and see. So far the Evening Standard has published them every Monday.

    There should be another mruk poll on Sunday in the Sunday Times. I believe there is supposed to be an ICM London poll sometime next week. I was expecting a MORI London poll on Sunday, but it seems like this was a leak to the Guardian and this is actually that poll, so there won’t necessarily be another one.

  13. I don’t know where this talk of Boris being a “fool” or “joke” has come from – i can only think from the propaganda of opposition parties – i have seen Ken , Boris and the “unknown” Liberal guy in debate twice now – most recently on question time yesterday – there was only man on the stage that had a ridiculous smile on his face with snide comments throughout – and it was’nt Boris or the “unknown” Liberal.

    I am still puzzled why the Liberals still get centre stage with the 2 main parties – when they are virtually equal in the London POLLS to the BNP !!

  14. These polls commissioned by Unison always flatter Ken. The way the question is formulated clearly induces framing error, as previously discussed. In reality Ken is toast, as the other polls will show and as the Poll on May 1 will confirm

  15. Brown may not enjoy a good relationship with Ken Livingstone, but the notion that a Johnson victory is less bad for him than a Livingstone one is extremely wide of the mark. Gordon Brown will be desperately keen for the latter outcome.

  16. Mike Smithson has noted that if this poll is right then Ken is going to do better than he did in the last two mayoral elections. I think that’s unlikely.

  17. The Times Leader endorses Boris today.

  18. Mike “the oracle” Richardson –
    The BNP are on 12%? Is that another prediction?

  19. The fact that we have second preferences in this election renders the Lib Dems pretty irrelervant anyway. Many people will vote Lib Dem first choice knowing that their choice will simply be rallocated to either Boris or Ken.

    Speaking of that- are the candidates eliminated from the bottom first if nobody wins 50%+1 in the first round? That might mean that we have a winner before Paddicks votes are even reallocated (assuming he comes third) because smaller parties second preferences will be reallocated before his….

  20. I also saw question time, and a debate the previous night, and while I am no fan of Ken, but Boris just looks like a fool. Sorry ‘Mike’ but its true. He seems like a nice guy, but totally out of his depth. I just hope that London agrees with me, or I am wrong.

    As for the ‘unknown’ liberal, I thought he was called Brian Paddick….

  21. Mike said “I don’t know where this talk of Boris being a “fool” or “joke” has come from”
    I am not from London but after watching the newnight debate I enjoyed the ‘comedy’ so much the I sought out the other debates.

    Boris comes across as the most inept politican I have ever seen in my life.

  22. Whilst it is only an opinion, The Economist agrees with the bookies and expect Boris to win on the second count. Surely there will be some embarrassed faces come May 2nd….