Comments on: YouGov – Tories take 18 point lead

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 21:43:14 +0000

G Humphries – no idea what the Telegraph are on about. My figures are just a simple uniform swing – you can use my calculator here

By: G Humphries

G Humphries — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 20:56:03 +0000

Thanks as always for your objective analysis. You say projected Tory lead of over 100. Antony King in the Telegraph says Tory lead of 50 on these figures. Can you help with the different projections please?

By: stuart gregory

stuart gregory — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 19:35:25 +0000

peter c- the con’s +6 (7) Lab -16 (25) this total includs the speaker LD -3 (8) SNP +13 (19), so if repeated at the election your party would be near to caursing a hung parliment on it’s own along with the conservatives in scotland, if it happens a pat on the back would be due not only to the SNP but conservatives as well.

By: Sally C

Sally C — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 17:44:44 +0000

Boris and Ken are fighting in London. It will be dissappointing if Boris loses but London has a regional charactistics as much as parts of Yorkshire or Scotland etc. London has been regarded as Labour’s territory.
Think that’s why Maggie wanted to rid herself of the GLC years ago.

Matthew. Good question about the Telgraph. People ask if the Tories have really changed. The Telegraph clearly think they have. And they don’t like it. They have form for spinning polls AGAINST Cameron.
They will support him the way the Unions supported Blair – through gritted teeth.

By: Mike "the oracle" Richardson

Mike "the oracle" Richardson — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 17:34:20 +0000

I must have been one of the last to hear about this 18% gap for the Tories – how unlike me . Obviously there are more and more red faces – especially the doubters of my predictions way back in September last year when i predicted these massive POLL gains for the Tories.

I also contradicted someone on here – i believe it was T.JONES who said that the core Labour vote was 34% – i said then that the true Labour core vote was nearer 26% – mmmm.

PETER CAIRNS – Looks like you are even starting to see that an 11 seat gain in Scotland for the Tories is looking more and more likely !!

The news of the petrol shortages and queues at petrol stations – even though not a government mess – they will get the blame and the POLLS will show an even lower POLL rating for Labour just prior and during the elections on 1st May -

CUT AND PASTE this

By: Nick

Nick — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 17:22:53 +0000

Ha! What next? Lib Dems overtake Labour?

By: Colin

Colin — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 15:31:59 +0000

Peter-just a follow up to the last YouGov & ICM Polls & their disparity.

MS on politicalbetting attributes it to timing-ICM good news for Labour ( USA trip)-YouGov bad news for Labour ( 10p row)….so maybe it is that volatile & there are a large number of people clinging onto their Labour faith like crazy-but who can be persuaded to abandon it at the drop of another GB clanger.

That would appear to be better news for GB than DC-provided the clangers stop.

By: Colin

Colin — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 15:18:20 +0000

Peter -
Yes I accept the caveats re GE.( 7.46am)
What I had in mind was the ability to compare the Mayoral result with the last Polls.That surely will be some measure of accuracy.

RE “core vote”-I hear what you say. To me it’s just another of those concepts which are postulated but not really measured with any accuracy.

RE “end of ideology” and triangulation.I think as the latter unravels for NuLab , the former may in fact begin to reassert itself.The different philosophies on the role & size of The State;on the nature of personal resonsibility, on the role & purpose of personal taxation;liberty of the individual vs security of the state etc etc. These are all debates which are re-emerging after a long period of purdah. I happen to believe that is a good thing.

RE- “voter volatility” , I accept that with old allegiances to Labour breaking down, but new ones to the Conservatives just beginning to emerge there will be some degree of volatility.There are probably a goodly number of people who want to continue supporting Labour, and who will do so in any period of calm for GB-but who, as & when the next reminder of his faults appears, give up the ghost ( again).

But what I find impossible to reconcile with any reasonable degree of volatility is You Gov saying Cons stable at 44% 11th to 23 April & ICM saying Tories fall 43% to 39% 4th to 20th April….or even worse YouGov having Labour fall 2 points, and ICM having them gaining 2 points over the same dates.

I just can’t believe that “volatility” explains that.Seems to me they just came up with different answers-and they can’t both be right.

By: Gooey Blob

Gooey Blob — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 15:01:12 +0000

Only 9 points between Labour and the Lib Dems. Given that the Lib Dems will almost certainly beat Labour into a very poor third place on the 1st of May – and probably receive a poll boost from that – can anyone else foresee a situation whereby the anti-Tory vote drifts further away from Labour and gravitates towards the Lib Dems? The closer those parties’ poll results get, the more interesting the situation could become.

By: Matthew

Matthew — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 14:51:33 +0000

Can I remind everyone that these are meant to be non-partisan comments? It’s rather boring wading through rants from either side to get to dicussion about the polls!