YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph shows a massive 18 point lead over Labour. The full topline figures are CON 44%(nc), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 17%(nc).

The poll was conducted between the 21st and 23rd of April, so while the 10p row was at its height, but almost entirely before the government announced their change of policy Wednesday lunchtime. It goes without saying that the poll shows the exactly opposite trend to ICM’s earlier this week, which suggests one (or both) of the polls are outliers. Certainly given the mess the government was in when this poll was being taken, a fall in Labour support seems prima facie more likely, but we’ll see.

This is the largest poll lead the Conservatives have achieved since 1987, and the lowest Labour share of support I can find since the aftermath of their 1983 rout, though I don’t have very complete records of opinion polls prior to 1987. If repeated at a general election it would produce a Conservative landslide majority of 154, with Labour down to 190 seats.


55 Responses to “YouGov – Tories take 18 point lead”

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  1. I must have been one of the last to hear about this 18% gap for the Tories – how unlike me . Obviously there are more and more red faces – especially the doubters of my predictions way back in September last year when i predicted these massive POLL gains for the Tories.

    I also contradicted someone on here – i believe it was T.JONES who said that the core Labour vote was 34% – i said then that the true Labour core vote was nearer 26% – mmmm.

    PETER CAIRNS – Looks like you are even starting to see that an 11 seat gain in Scotland for the Tories is looking more and more likely !!

    The news of the petrol shortages and queues at petrol stations – even though not a government mess – they will get the blame and the POLLS will show an even lower POLL rating for Labour just prior and during the elections on 1st May –

    CUT AND PASTE this

  2. Boris and Ken are fighting in London. It will be dissappointing if Boris loses but London has a regional charactistics as much as parts of Yorkshire or Scotland etc. London has been regarded as Labour’s territory.
    Think that’s why Maggie wanted to rid herself of the GLC years ago.

    Matthew. Good question about the Telgraph. People ask if the Tories have really changed. The Telegraph clearly think they have. And they don’t like it. They have form for spinning polls AGAINST Cameron.
    They will support him the way the Unions supported Blair – through gritted teeth.

  3. peter c- the con’s +6 (7) Lab -16 (25) this total includs the speaker LD -3 (8) SNP +13 (19), so if repeated at the election your party would be near to caursing a hung parliment on it’s own along with the conservatives in scotland, if it happens a pat on the back would be due not only to the SNP but conservatives as well.

  4. Thanks as always for your objective analysis. You say projected Tory lead of over 100. Antony King in the Telegraph says Tory lead of 50 on these figures. Can you help with the different projections please?

  5. G Humphries – no idea what the Telegraph are on about. My figures are just a simple uniform swing – you can use my calculator here

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