The mruk poll in the Sunday Times also included a voting intention question for the Westminster elections. Strictly speaking it’s not a proper mruk poll of London voting intentions, since it there is no proper likelihood of voting filter (we can’t be certain that people who say they are likely to vote in the London mayoral election would also say they are likely to vote in a general election, though I suspect they probably would), but it’s all we’ve got. The figures, with changes from the general election, are CON 41%(+9), LAB 35%(-4), LDEM 18%(-4).

If repeated at a general election the Conservatives would gain 14 seats in London, 11 from Labour and 3 from the Lib Dems: Finchley & Golders Green, Croydon Central (notionally), Battersea, Carshalton and Wallington, Harrow East, Sutton and Cheam, Richmond Park, Hendon, Brentford and Isleworth, Eltham, Westminster North, Poplar and Limehouse, Tooting, Hampstead and Kilburn.


28 Responses to “London’s Westminster voting intentions”

  1. And, like an autumn leave, slowly colours change, before death falls upon them, only to be recycled. Goodbye New Labour.

  2. Tooting would go Tory by about 300 votes if this poll was precisely correct.

  3. Andy

    is that based upon rounded percentages or a couple of decimal points? 0.5% is usually about 300 votes

  4. YouGov’s regional breakdown usually shows the Tory lead in London significantly higher than this. Does it actually cover the whole London area and nothing more?

  5. Don’t forget that the swings are likely to be larger in the marginals, as they were in 1992 and certainly 1997 when a change of government seemed on the cards.

  6. Andy D – check what it says on the tables. YouGov used to show regional breaks on their tables that were actually ITV television regions, so the London one actually included bits of the home counties.

    That’s changed now, so normally the regions there are actually the government regions and London is actually London.

  7. Anthony,

    when did Scotland actually become “Scotland” in the YouGov breaks?

    Peter.

  8. Fliffy , let’s presume you meant “leaf” and deduce that you were schooled during the Tory “wilderness” years.

    If you trawl through the archives you’ll also learn that this Tory lead isn’t enough to deliver a working majority two years hence. Eton Dave is your Kinnock for he understands the problems with his party but they are too great for one man to overcome ; sadly for you, he’s no Tony Blair.

  9. Keir Hardie. Why “Eton Dave”? Why not “Fettes Blair”? Typical political stupidity – both men have done and are doing their best in very difficult circumstances. I know which of the two have, in my opinion, the greater integrity(nothing to do with their schooling years ago) but would express it rather differently.

  10. A bit silly to refer to DC as “Eton Dave” – rather like me referring to a politician as council house Jack or Comprehensive John.

    Anyway, for all DCs priveleged upbring(none of which he chose by the way) he certainly seems more in tune with the average man on the street than the current Labour leadership.

  11. Scottish daily mail apparently has the following, but I can’t confirm it as it isn’t on line.

    Scottish Parliament constituency vote (change since 2007 in brackets)

    SNP: 40% (+7)
    Lab: 33% (+1)
    Con: 13% (-4)
    Lib: 10% (-6)
    Gre: 3%
    SSP: 1%

    The poll conducted by Scottish Opinion,questionned 1004 voters in all
    73
    Scottish Parliament constituencies between April 15th and April 22nd.

    I don’t have any other details.

    Peter.

  12. That’s a miserable poll for the Tories and for the Lib Dems as well.

  13. KTL

    I quite agree that Cameron like the rest of us didn’t choose his upbringing but I think the point is whether someone who’s upbringing was so different from the very large majority of the rest of the electorate can really understand and empathise with the problems and issues that impact on ordinary people (quite valid to say the same about Blair also). If John Major was PM now and said that he understood the difficulties faced by families coping with the rapid increase in the price of basic foods you might think ‘well he’s got some personal experience because he was brought up in relative poverty and he probably really does understand’. In the case of Cameron everyone knows that he has never experienced (and probably never will experience) what it’s like to not have enough money to buy enough food at the end of the week. It would be interesting to know whether ther’s been any polling to see whether these sort of considerations do impact on people.

  14. A priveleged upbringing may have some bearing on people’s considerations when they vote but all the evidence at the moment is that DC is pretty well liked by the electorate. In fact he personally is probably more well liked than the Tories as a party.

    In fact I believe that there is increasingly a a high personal DC factor in the Tories good poll results.

  15. Kier Hardie, whe you say Eton Dave, I suppose you mean he had a privaliged childhood? The same as Tony Blair, Denis Healy or Tony Benn and could undertstand ordinary working people? BTW I’m working class and I went to school during late 1970’s and believe me it was bad.

  16. David Bowtell-I accept that your concerns about what you describe describe as “background” are honestly held.

    But I do think it strange to believe that unless a person emanates from the ranks of “ordinary people” ( whoever they are) they are incapable of understanding their “problems & issues”.This is to completely discount the influence of parents,teachers & a whole raft of formative factors.

    The paper for which a link is given below identifies the “best” 20th Century British Prime Ministers as defined by a variety of surveys & criteria.The top ten are pretty consistent in all of them.They are:-
    Churchill
    Lloyd George
    Attlee
    Asquith
    Thatcher
    MacMillan
    Salisbury
    Baldwin
    Campbell Bannerman
    Wilson
    Heath
    Blair

    I would describe this group as eesntialy middle class ( A through C2) with perhaps two “aristocrats” ( Churchill & Salisbury) and two with “working class” credentials ( Heath & Blair)

    Your ideal in the shape of John Major doesn’t make it into any top ten.

    http://www.polis.leeds.ac.uk/assets/files/research/working-papers/wp19theakston.pdf

  17. Colin. From where did Blair get his working class credentials? As I understand, he came from a strongly Conservative family and went to the Scottish Eton.Whatever, it seems a very foolish notion that our PM must be from a working-class background.KTL – perhaps you would list MPs who have ever had insufficient money to buy food – talk some sense if possible.

  18. Your ideal in the shape of John Major doesn’t make it into any top ten.

    Neither does Blair or Heath according to your list as it is the top 12

  19. Colin and collin

    I’m certainly not saying that a good leader has to be working class but I am saying that the deferential attitude which prevailed into the 1960s has gone and people’s views about the background of leaders have changed a lot. I am not a great fan of John Major as having a personal background with which a lot of ‘ordinary’ folk can identify is unfortunately not a guarantee of competence in the job! Given the choice of two leaders with proven competence, I do believe many people would prefer the one who had a background which had some relationship to their own experience.

  20. KTL, collin,
    I feel sure Cameron’s schooling and class will be an issue up to the next election. I think he does give a good impression of being an everyman and anyway no-one likes a proper toff more than the working classes but the additional presence of a cadre of Old Etonians around him is very damaging. Can it really be that in a 21st Century meritocracy a group of men ( for of course they are all men) who have risen to the top of their party coincidentally all went to the same school ? Did whoever was running state education in the 80s ( who was it again ? ) do so badly that the Tories have lost a generation of state educated high fliers ?

    Public schoolboys within the Labour party don’t generate the same tension because Labour never propones the benefits of private education. Cameron is of course far too shrewd to engage in any crass trumpeting of the benefits of public schools but the fact that he and so many of his mates are the product of the best education money can buy is an open goal for Labour. A beautiful seed of doubt to be sown in Worcester Woman’s and Mondeo Man’s minds. This isn’t lost yet comrades ! If Major won one Brown can win one !

  21. David, Perhaps you can show us the evidence that says we follow leaders who have “…a background which had some relationship to (our) own experience”? It strikes me that the evidence we see in Britian consistently favours leaders from backgrounds that appear to be superior in some way or other from the average. In many cases perceptions of ‘class’ are the main proxies – this was the case with Blair and Attlee. We also look for evidence of superior intellectual capability but the bookishness of Brown is very atypical. Methinks the only post WWII PMs with real working class credentials were Callaghan and Major. Hardly the greatest advert for leadership!!

  22. My post at 2.40. Apologies to KTL- misread the post heading – should have been Bowtell.

  23. Politicalbetting reporting torygraph yougov poll : C 44, L 26 LD 17

    Libs certainly seem to have stabilised after the doldrums of 11-12% under Ming

  24. Adrian-my list is for anyone making the top ten in the eight or nine rankings given in the paper I quoted-hence 12 people. Blair was in the top ten five times-5th/6th/8th/9th/10th.

    collin-from Blair’s fathers background-but I agree the whole thing is subjective.I am sure he would answer to Middle Class.

    David :-
    “I do believe many people would prefer the one who had a background which had some relationship to their own experience.”

    That’s what the majority of adults have had in their 20th C PMs-they are mostly Middle Class. The Middle Class ( A through C2) constitute 55% of the UK adult population ( 2006-over 15s)

    Kier Hardie-I really hope people like you & Hazel Blears & Mrs.Balls continue to wage the class war.
    It’s as outdated as Michael Foot and reeks of left wing envy & hypocricy.

  25. Paul, Cons ahead by 18. Bet the polling was done before the U turn fiasco as well. Still only a week wawy from real votes so perhaps a clearer picture can be gained from those elections.

  26. Mr. Hardie- Please spell your name right – where did you go to school? Not Eton, surely?

  27. Yes Paul D-44/26/17!!

    The gap with ICM’s last Poll is of Grand Canyon proportions-but not on LDs anymore.
    5 points on Cons & 8 points on Lab.

    Await Anthony’s thoughts with interest!

  28. SNP riding high in scotland,things can only get better :)