You may be closer to the Borders than I am in Hertfordshire, but I think that you may be wrong about Dumfries & Galloway. There’s a large overlap with Alex Ferguson’s seat and Peter Duncan is standing again, so I would say that on current trends that is a likely Tory gain unless you think the (reduced) SNP support in the rural parts of the seat will vote tactically for Labour as they would appear to have done in 2005.

I also think that Berwick Rxburgh & Selkirk is another likely gain – almost equivalent seat taken cleanly at Holyrood last year.

I agree that other gains will be harder to make.

Notice you did not mention Edinburgh SW – opportunity for an upset ?

And the Tories will be lucky if they end up with three seats in Scotland–eleven is never going to happen.

Based on the fact that since 2005 the Tories have been mainly static in Scotland, with the SNP up Labour and the LibDems down.

1) Perth & Kinross (SNP), (30th Tory target) swing 1.65%.
Pete Wishart is the MP and the SNP vote has doubled in the polls since the last election in 2005. SNP hold

2) Angus (SNP), (39th Tory target) swing 2.1%.
Mike Weir is the MP and again SNP well ahead from last election.SNP hold.

3) Dumfries & Galloway (Lab), (51st Tory target) swing 2.85%.
Russell Brown is the MP and with ex MP Peter Duncan the Tory candidate, with Labour behind the 2005 poll rating a possible Tory win.

4) Edinburgh South (Lab), (76th Tory target) swing 4.55%.
Nigel Griffith MP but it is the LibDem 4th target seat in the UK, could be a LibDem win if SNP takes votes from Lab , possible Con second but no better.

5) Ochil & S Perthshire (Lab)(87th Tory target) swing 4.95%.
Gordon Banks is the MP, but the SNP have Annabel Ewing as candidate and it is a high SNP target with only a 1.5% swing needed. Possible SNP gain.

6) Stirling (Lab) (100th Tory target) swing 5.45%
Anne McGuire MP, Tory’s were second, but it is a LibDem target seat too. Labour hold.

7) Berwick, Rox & Selkirk (LibDem) ( 121st Tory target) swing 6.5%
Micheal Moore MP, even with Libdems down this will be a LibDem hold as majority is 5,000.

Argyll & Bute (LibDem) (122nd Tory target) swing 6.5%.
Another LibDem hold, LibDems may be down, but Labour and SNP votes are low and unlikely to go to Tories, A big swing to the SNP might let the Tory’s steal it.

9) Renfrewshire East (Lab)(133rd Tory target) swing 7%.
Almost certain Lab hold, not enough SNP or Libdem votes to change this two party seat.

10) Moray (SNP) (139th Tory target) swing 7.3%.
Angus Robertson MP, over 5,000 majority SNP hold.

11) Edinburgh North (Lab) ( 139th Tory target) 7.75% swing.
Mark Lazarowicz MP, Libdem target 16, Tories currently third, probable labour hold, but outside chance of LibDem gain.

So Mike that is one chance in the Tory current top 11 in Scotland.

Peter.

This whole 11 seat nonsense isn’t evidence based. Since you’ve been making it Tory support in Scotland has only once reached 19% and it’s been as low as 144 averaging about 17%.

If the surge is coming then there is no sign of it yet, and until there is all your posts are just wishful thinking.

If you really are serious about 11 seats why not list them with the share of the Scottish vote the Tories would need to get to win them.

Peter.