YouGov’s weekly Mayoral election tracker for the Evening Standard has topline voting intentions of JOHNSON 44%(-1), LIVINGSTONE 37%(-2), PADDICK 12%(nc). Once second preferences are reallocated the result is JOHNSON 53%, LIVINGSTONE 47%.

Johnson’s lead has fallen from the heights it reached earlier in the campaign (my guess was that this was becase of Boris’s less than impressive performances in the televised debates, though it could be because the earlier large leads were when the Lee Jasper affair was prominent in the London media). However, this poll is pretty consistent with YouGov’s figures from last week (and indeed with MORI’s figures from last week) suggesting the position has stabilised. There are now only 10 days to go until the mayoral election, so while this race has moved about a bit over the last few weeks, there isn’t much time for Livingstone to turn round a 6 point deficit and Boris looks set to win.

All this depends, of course, on YouGov’s polls being right. They have been the most regular pollster during the London mayoral campaign, but other companies have tended to show a tighter race. In their most recent poll Ipsos MORI, the only other company to have produced more than one mayoral poll in this election, also showed Johnson with a 6% lead in the first round, but showed a narrower contest as second preferences split overwhelmingly in Livingstone’s favour.

Low turnout elections do tend to be tricker for pollsters to predict correctly (though YouGov did manage it in 2004), but judging by the polls Boris does seem to have a significant lead as the candidates turn the corner into the final straight.

14 Responses to “Boris ahead with 10 days to go”

  1. Is there any information on the YouGov’s sampling techniques? I know I get the question “If you had a vote, who would you vote for as London mayor?”, but living in Yorkshire and not having a vote it would seem flawed to count my answer in these percentages. Is it only the votes of London participants that count?

  2. Different survey UptheANTE, there have been some internal polls that asked it to people across the country with hypothetical wording (“if you had a vote…”), but the published ones only go to people in London.

  3. If Boris wins, he will have to resign as an MP thus creating a by-election. Is it likely that the Crewe and Nantwich by election will be held on the same night or does it have to be declared prior to the London mayoral date

  4. I am not sure that Boris actually has to give his seat if he wins. Although I assume he will. Convention is that a by-election has to be called within 3 months so they could both be held on the same day.

  5. The underlying data is very volatile.

    In the previous poll for the three age groups (18-34, 35-54, 55+) Johnson had 46%, 38%, and 52%. He now has 39%, 48%, and 47%. So his support has fallen 7% in the youngest but jumped up 10% for the middle group.

    Also, for men he now has a 11% lead, for women just 2%. But last time he had just a 2% lead among men, and a 10% lead on women.

  6. I see the latest ICM poll has the Tory lead down to 5 points. A big increase (5 points) in support for Labour

  7. Paul , we must treat the ICM figures with some caution as the polling was conducted solely at the weekend . Anthony will probably be able to tell us if they have ever done this before , I cannot recall it .

  8. paul i’ve seen no icm polling so far but if the poll shows up that would be a big turn around for labour(thew fat lady has not sung yet) boris for mayor, it’s ime for change in the captail my prediction boris 56% ken 44% in second round

    in england and wales the shere of the vote including london will be con 45%+ lab 24% or less LD’s 26-28% others up a bit or even.

  9. normal odd polling from icm i’ve had a look at the poll and looking at all the other polls this month it’s a bit odd for labour to be up by 5% and conservatives down by 3%, but icm have always been a bit odd lets admit it if yougov, populus and comres at the end of last month are showing the conservatives with a big lead it’s odd for icm to say otherwise.

  10. Adrian/Jamie – Boris isn’t legally required to resign as an MP (Ken Livingstone didn’t when he was first elected Mayor) but he has said he will (though I don’t think he has committed himself to a timescale, so has some wiggle-room).

    The convention is that the party that held the seats moves the writ for the by-election and that it is done within three months, so Labour and the Tories want the by-elections on the same day they can probably arrange it.

  11. WMA 44:40:11 – it will be very interesting to see on May 2nd who is right, YouGov had C lead on average 4 points greater than the other pollsters. ITRW Labour seems to be falling apart, but the other pollsters don’t seem to reflect this. We shall see.

  12. The previous debates with Johnson & Livingstone keep being mentioned on here – saying that Livingstone beat Johnson hands down – certainly on the political shows on Sunday – Johnson came over as the more competent !!

    Londoners are very lucky – they can see their freedom from draconian rules & taxes just around the corner – the rest of us have to wait another 2 long years !!

  13. Maybe “Red” Ken should try a John Prescott tactic and come up with something like bulemia to get the tree huggers sympathy vote .It might work – perhaps he could say he suffers from extreme shyness , being introvert or a secret ego trip where he hears voices telling him that he will rule the world!

  14. Heard on the radio today that Paddick said he could work with Boris but not Ken. It seems from polling that Ken was slighly ahead on 2nd pref votes but could this change now that the LD candidate had ‘backed’ Boris?