Mike.In DT (p.2-News Bulletin) reference made to bad figures for Labour (65% dissatisfied,58% unhappy with GB etc.). Is there no forecast of general levels of party support with these national figures? Do you intend reporting this extra information? Being so adverse to Labour, do the figures not tend to give credence to their mayoral poll?

Mike?

The MORI figures in the Telegraph seem to be the ones from their GB monthly tracker poll, so it was the one with a 5 point Tory lead and nothing to do with this poll.

Sorry, Anthony!

Politicshome reporting that Ken’s camp are much happier with this poll (naturally) and that it confirms further the lack of accuracy at Yougov. Fair enough this is a good poll but what if they lose (which I think they will)? Will they keep on denying and questioning? The conduct of Ken’s team when they hear something they don’t like has been somewhat Mugabesque of late.

So it’s YouGov versus the rest, hmmm….

Did YouGov apply any turnout filter in the Mayoral polls this time round?

Might turnout and party affiliation might be things that particularly affect younger people, perhaps because they are less likely to turn out and less likely to have a strong party affiliation?

Nick - nope, YouGov don’t have any turnout filter. At the last elections they produced figures with a turnout filter and without one. The former overestimated the Conservatives while the latter called the election correctly, so understandably they’ve stuck with the latter this time round.

From YouGOV’s last poll, looking at the Party ID table, it seems to me that on party supporters the race is quite close - 46% Johnson, 40% Livingstone. However those who presumably don’t have any party ID, which seems to be 210 of the 1003 sample, Johnson leads 65% to 21%.

Yougov against the rest… or YouGov for the Evening Standard again the rest? Everybody knows that the ES is not a big fan of red Ked…

One polling organisation will look rather silly whatever happens,they are so far apart.

Anthony - I hope Collin wasn’t mistaking you for the Oracle.

Having looked at the link added in the update I am confused. Back in the dark ages I was taught that you round to the nearest whole and that normal practice for halves is to round up. If as stated the figures were 49.51 Boris and 50.48 Ken then it should have been presented as 50/50 not 49/51 which would have suggested that Boris not Ken was getting the best from the second preferences. Can someone clever help me out here?

And why are UNISON spending their members money commissioning opinion polls that newspapers and the political parties are commissioning? Has any one asked them to justify this. I think it’s an appalling waste of members money.

Simon - it wasn’t actually 49.51% to 50.48%, because it wasn’t actually 203 people backing Boris and 207 backing Ken - those figures themselves are rounded and would actually have been something like 202.6 for Boris and 207.4 for Ken (there’s a comment confirming it from Julia Clark in Mike’s comments).

Silly comment: It’s IPSOS, Tory landslide! That said….

Are there any polls for the City-hall members. The Mayorial vote is purely personal, despite the friendliness seen so far. [YouGov excepted.] How are party-votes falling?

Well I’m now starting a WMA tracker. At present it shows a WMA of 44:40:11 and YouGov having a pro-C bias of 5 with a std of 3. It will be a very interesting test of methodologies who wins. I think it will be Boris by quite a margin, but who knows. We should find out on May 2nd or 3rd.

I’m also very strongly of the view that Internet Users are now rather more pro-Conservative than the rest of the population, which seems the only way to explain the YouGov/rest divide.

Maybe the message is “Don’t diss Ken”…?

Now where did I put my toilet-roll…?

From the BBC web-site:

[b]Preacher Abu Qatada wins appeal[/b]

Another vote for Ken there….

So it is rounding upon rounding - I guess the truth is that this poll has Ken & Boris neck and neck.

Abu Qatada would need a PV as he’s in Belmarsh and likely to stay there for the time being.

I also guess there’s no-one out there from Unison justifying htem conducting this poll. I could understand a TU polling on attitudes to privatisation or on public sector pensions. But on a mayoral election? Can’t see any justification at all.

Anthony, on PB someone has pointed at that the unusually long question, stating that Ken is Mayor and naming Sian Berry has Green leader, favours Ken Livingstone. Would you agree with this analysis?

Anthony, Casino Royale makes some interesting points about the actual wording of the voting intention question on Political Betting’s latest thread. He argues (quite convincingly I think) that the way the voting intention question is framed gives a boost to both Ken Livingstone and Sian Berry. I’d be interested for your opinion on this.

Here’s said question;

“In the next election for Mayor of London, the present Mayor, Ken Livingstone is standing for re-election as the Labour Party candidate. Boris Johnson is standing for the Conservatives, Brian Paddick is standing for the Liberal Democrats, Siân Berry is standing for the Green Party, and there will be other candidates too. In the election for Mayor, voters will have two votes, one for their first choice as Mayor and one for their second choice. If the election were held tomorrow, which candidate would be your first choice?”

With thanks to CasinoRoyale.

Unison in some parts of Britain is the Labour Party. So they will be doing their best to get Ken elected. They are also quite rich indirectly from council tax payers. Let’s face it Unison have been a fantastically good union for their members - when a social work manager is on £45 000 when their private sector equivalents are on £25/30 000 you realise how much is being creamed off. And what union are council chief executives on -the ones that earn more than Gordon Brown

Wolf - I know all that. It just surprises me that nobody has challenged UNISON on them wasting their members’ money in this way.

I have only just seen the Newsnight Mayor programme….what can I say about Boris but absolutely fantastic.Best part was his Michael Howard moment when Jeremy couldn’t get a straight answer out of him.

We need another one before the vote so Londoners can really make their mind up.

Maybe then Boris can actually jot up so he can answer a question right.In bad polling times he has put the biggest smile on my face for six months.

Oh back to the POLL,it must be a rogue ….surely.

Wolf/Simon Cooke

Trades Unions working successfully for their members… Local Govt employees getting good salaries rather than a pittance… interested in helping to elect Labour (who, as part of the TU movement their predecessors helped to found). It’s a scandal.

Thatcher did her best to enfeeble them, but maybe Cameron will put the abolition of Trades Unions in his manifesto?

Oh yes… back to that rogue poll.

John H. I don’t take issue with your arguments - maybe Unison mebers should support Labour. Maybe Maggie was bad for TUs. However, I do not see the relevence of Unison conducting political opinion polls withntheir members’ money. Campaign leaflets - yes. Advertising - yes. Research into issues of direct concern to their members e.g. privatisation, pensions…yes. Given that national newspapers, the political parties etc conduct these polls Unison’s poll is unnecessary and a scadalous waste of the Union’s resources. If you got off your political high horse and looked at the real situation you’d get my point.

If the poll helps Ken Livingstone’s campaign (which it probably did, by - along with ICM - preventing him looking totally dead in the water)
then what’s the difference between spening money on a poll and spending it on campaign leaflets or advertising?

I thik there are three issues with the Unison poll.
One is that unions have a political fund - Unison uses that fund to support the Labour Party and therefore will support Ken Livingstone. Any member who objects can withdraw from the political fund.
Two - is this actually helping Ken? If the poll is seen as biased probably not. I think members of the public have a great deal of cynicism towards polls generally.
Three - local government employees are there to serve the voters. If the voters feel they’re being abused then Unison will have problems. The voters may feel Unison is using public money for sectarian ends.

Simon Cooke
Anthony took the words out of my… fingers (for once)
Also, being a democratic body, if a significant proportion of the membership of Unison agree with you, and feel their money is being wasted, they can take appropriate action - or at least make a fuss. Maybe I misjudge you, but I am fairly sure your hostile reaction to this owes more to your dislike?/distrust? of Unions than concern about how their members’ money is allocated.

Wolf
What’s this about Unison using public money? Their finances come from the personal contributions of its members (who are aware that it has a political fund and traditionally supports Labour).
On the other hand, when I buy e.g. a pint of beer I may well be contributing, indirectly and unwillingly, towards expenditure on Conservative propaganda if the business concerned makes a political donation.

I feel suitably chastised over the matter of Unison although some of the answers do beg the question about the purpose of opinion polling. Moreover, JohnH you would do well not to make assumptions about the motives of others in making statements - I have nothing against trades unions despite their best efforts to make the case against.

It may not be any of my business to have raised the matter but it was meant in the spirit of debate not as some partisan attack on Unison. Were I a member I might well ask questions about the legitimacy of such spending but as the union is a private organisation it can do as it pleases.