ICM/Sunday Telegraph – 11 point Tory lead
A new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph shows a slight recovery for Labour, putting them back above thirty. Conservative support is also up slightly from the last ICM poll so the Tory lead remains in double figures – at 11 points enough to produce an overall Conservative majority if repeated at a general election.
The topline figures, with changes from the last ICM poll a fortnight ago, are CON 43%(+1), LAB 32%(+3), LDEM 18%(-3).
I’ll update when I’ve seen the rest of the poll, although according to Conservative home, the poll also has questions on how people would vote in an Alternative Vote system – it would result in the Conservatives doing slightly less well and finds Cameron & Osborne neck and neck with Brown & Darling on economic competence.
There was also a Scottish YouGov poll this morning. It showed Westminster voting intentions in Scotland at CON 17%, LAB 35%, LDEM 12%, SNP 31%. Scottish Parliament voting intentions stand at CON 12%, LAB 32%, LDEM 13%, SNP 40% in the constituency vote and CON 13%, LAB 30%, LDEM 12%, SNP 33% in the list vote.
NBeale,
When you’re working out the retrospective errors do you pick the last results of each different pollsters or just the most current polls from any pollster?
If it’s the latter then it’s not really suprising that YouGov have a low retrospective “error” because they do the most polls and so their errors will have been calculated largely by comparison with their own polls.
Don’t know if it’s already been pointed out but the previous ComRes poll appears to have been done in the future (according to the main page). Perhaps that means the Labour vote will be increasing by the end of the month?
Oops – thanks Steve. I can’t get into the database to change it from work, but I’ll correct it tonight
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