Comments on: ICM show Boris and Ken neck and neck

By: Colin

Colin — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 16:26:47 +0000

Anthony-thank you for the ICM analysis & comparison with YouGov.

It seems pretty odd to the layman that the two polls should differ so significantly on the two groups you highlight-particularly since you say there is no obvious reason for it.

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 15:52:50 +0000

Following a comment on the recent YouGov poll, is there information about how many EU voters are registered in London constitutencies, and hence eligible to vote in the mayoral election but not in parliamentary ones?

My guess is that, given the pathetic state of UK local government, few EU voters would bother to register for provincial lcoal elections. However, the London mayoral election has an altogether higher profile.

From a psephological point of view, we need to take the differing registers into account if any predictions are to be made from Westminster lection results to London ones, or vice versa.

By: But It Wouldn’t Mean Nothing, Without A Harperson On Earth: Westminster Watch: w/b 31st March 2008 | The Wardman Wire

Thu, 03 Apr 2008 11:04:08 +0000

[...] (”Labour clone!”) is actually doing so (”gaffe prone Minister”), and a ICM poll puts Livingstone and BoJo neck-and-neck for the London [...]

By: cautious observer

cautious observer — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 08:13:42 +0000

Mike “the oracle”, I am curious given your views, which i have read a number of times, which constituency do you live in and have you seen any campaigning activity at all other than for the local elections there?

By: David Bowtell

David Bowtell — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 22:32:39 +0000

Mike “the oracle” Richardson

Good to see you maintaining an objective non-partisan approach! Jack’s point above has got it right on this one…personality rather than party label and I suspect this will result in roller-coaster polls.

By: Mike "the oracle" Richardson

Mike "the oracle" Richardson — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 22:10:47 +0000

Neither POLLSTERS results are “up the creek” COLIN – Take the word of the “Oracle” – i have’nt been wrong so far with any POLLING – Ken Livingstone will NOT be the mayor of London after the election – and Ken knows it too !

By: Colin

Colin — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 21:34:32 +0000

There sure is a “methodology issue” as between ICM & YouGov!

One of them is completely up the creek.

By: GIN

GIN — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 21:31:40 +0000

Thanks Anthony.

So at this stage it looks like a mystery?

By: NBeale

NBeale — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 20:47:33 +0000

For some reason ICM/Guardian polls since GB has become PM tend to have a 1% anti-C bias and a 2.8 Std. But even so I agree – a 7 pt difference would be just over 1 std the wrong way for both polls and this is not impossible (roughly a 2.5% chance, or a 1.6% chance if you.gov is right and ICM is wrong) I suspect there is a methodology issue. I see no reason to suppose that public opinion has moved either way in the last few days.

By: Jack

Jack — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 20:34:41 +0000

Not convinced about the words ‘Conservative fightback’ in the report–I would have to view this as a contest of personalities first. Neither would a place in anything like a senior Westminster team for all sorts of reasons.