Not confimed yet, but apparently a new YouGov poll for the Standard has topline voting intentions, with changes from their last poll, of JOHNSON 47% (-2), LIVINGSTONE 37% (nc), PADDICK 10% (-2), Others 5%. With no candidate getting over 50% support, the second preferences of other candidates would come into play. This poll shows second prefrences splitting in favour of Boris Johnson, so if repeated at the election in May there is no doubt Boris Johnson would be the next mayor. The poll was conducted between the 20th and 25th March.

As with the national YouGov poll last week these figures confirm a trend. When the YouGov poll at the start of the month showed a 12 point lead for Boris Johnson it could possibly have turned out to be a rogue. With a second poll showing the same magnitude of lead, and nothing to contradict it, we can be pretty confident that Boris Johnson has a substantial lead and, barring ‘events’, looks headed for a victory in May.

Past London Mayor polls are here, lists of candidates for mayor and the assembly are here.

18 Responses to “Boris 10 points ahead in Mayoral race”

  1. BJ has lost some ground but i still think he will win in four weeks time, as for ken i think its all over for him and any chance his party has of retaining a majority of seats in the capital at the next election.

  2. How can you say BoJo has lost some ground? At the last poll he was at 49% and today 47%, all within the 3% margin of error

  3. It’s worrying that this current ‘anyone but Ken’ moment could see Boris in charge of one of the world’s greatest and most important cities. Is anyone seriously arguing that he’s up to the job? All I’ve seen is a number of populist and uncosted gimmicks, many of which go beyond the scope of the mayor’s current powers. We all need to hope for a miraculous implosion of Ken’s vote so Brian Paddick can finish second and sweep to victory on the second preferences; otherwise it’s too terrible to even consider!

  4. Anthony, a question from Political Betting. Livingstone has attempted to rubbish this poll. Most of his criticisms are easily rebutted, but he claims that Yougov’s weighting by ethnicity is incorrect. I can’t see any reference to ethnicity in any of the notes to the poll. Do Yougov weight by ethnicity, and does Livingstone know what he’s talking about?

  5. Sean – no, YouGov don’t weight by ethnicity, and there aren’t breakdowns by ethnicity on the tables to tell what proportions there are, so I really don’t know where he’s coming from.

    LibDemMember – read the comments policy, this site is about discussing who will win, not who should win. Lots of other places to say why people should vote for A or not vote for B, this is for discussion about what the polls show people are thinking of doing, however wrong or right they may be!

  6. Many thanks.

  7. A couple of details from the detailed poll breakdown on jumped out at me:
    – Of those with a Labour ‘Party ID’, 22% say they intend to vote for Boris and, maybe even more surprising, 11% say they intend to vote Conservative and 9% Lib Dem in the Assembly election. I find this pretty surprising, but I’m not familiar with past patterns – is this a new phenomenon?
    – Also under Assembly voting intention, the Labour/Conservative split for the 35-54 year olds is almost the exact opposite of the split for the 55+. Again, is this unusual or in line with previous trends?

    Thanks for setting up this site, it’s a useful resource.

  8. Jim – the party ID YouGov weight by is people’s ID back in May 2005, so they don’t have to worry about a drift in public opinion and can always weight to a fixed point, so some of those people are probably people who no longer identify with Labour.

    That said, mayoral elections have tended to show a fair proportion of people voting for the other side’s candidate as it were.

  9. Can some control be exercised over those who think this is a policy debate not a discussion of polls

  10. Apologies for seemingly breaking the rules; I wasn’t trying to flex my anti-establishment credentials, I simply didn’t know that there were restrictions on the topic of debate!

    Ah, I now see the big pink box – has that always been there?

  11. Is there any chance of a ‘shy Tory factor’ coming into play with these polls which may ultimately see Boris over 50% in the first round? Has understating the Tory share been a factor in previous Mayoral contests?

  12. I’m surprised Ken has criticised this poll. If anything I would have thought it might make his supporters more determined to turn out given the apparently very serious risk he will lose

  13. Anthony, would you mind elaborating on the ethnicity point – what do you mean by “weighting” by ehtnicity? Don’t Yougov simply include in their sample a proporationate selection of ethnic London voters? Is there some sense in which Yougov’s selection for polling purposes might be misleading as a result of its ethnic mix?
    (Thanks for this site, which is always a mine of information. I especially like the way you try to keep the partisan elements at bay).

  14. Anthony Wells

    Sean – no, YouGov don’t weight by ethnicity, and there aren’t breakdowns by ethnicity on the tables to tell what proportions there are, so I really don’t know where he’s coming from.

    Why would anyone bring ethnicity into this, but to curry favour. I am sorry, we all know who would do this….

  15. Ken is presumably saying that the supposed absence of weighting by ethnicity would translate into more support for him, and less for Boris? Is he simply playing politics by implying that ethic minorities are not voting for Johnson?

  16. Paddick’s crucial role in decriminalising cannibis in Lambeth seems to have helped him not a jot in terms of winning support for his candidacy, being stuck on 10% like this poll suggests.

  17. Andy- I don’t know…I’m a student and Paddick’s line on Cannabis is certainly fairly popular. Very few students seem to be supporting Livingstone, and many are going for Johnson, which is very interesting as Students are probably amongst the most anti-Tory of all voter groups.

  18. Lukw, Boris is certainly an interesting character and if true I can see why students like him. I’m tempted to say that he isn’t your usual Tory, if you know what I mean, but then he ticks all the boxes.