Round up

We are still in the period when no one really should be publishing any polls, since the fieldwork would have had to have been done over the Easter weekend. Here’s some things to keep you amused.

Firstly, over at the Election Guide part of the site I have – by popular demand – added the Northern Ireland seats. The boundary review in Northern Ireland makes very little difference to the overall picture, but for those who want to discuss seats in Northern Ireland the pages are here. As ever, I should recommend Nicholas Whyte’s site here, which has all the information on Northern Irish psephology you could possibly want and was a great help.

Secondly, there is rarely any polling done at all for local authority elections, except occassionally for the London borough elections when there is a nice geographical area where you know everyone has local elections at the same time. If you are hoping for polls on the May 2008 local elections you are probably going to be disappointed (apart, of course, from the London mayoral elections). What we do normally get are predictions from Rallings and Thrasher based on local authority by-elections, and some of their first predictions for the local elections have been published in the Local Government Chronicle, reproduced on LabourHome here.

Finally, for those of you pondering when we will get a proper poll, if everything goes according to normal timetables the monthly YouGov poll for the Telegraph should appear tonight or tomorrow. This should be an interesting poll – the last YouGov poll showed a 16 point Tory lead, a result that appeared to be an obvious rogue until ICM produced a 13 point Tory lead a few days later. The monthly YouGov/Telegraph poll will be our first chance to see if those huge Tory leads were the beginning of some sort of sea-change in British politics, or just a short-term negative reaction to the budget.


10 Responses to “Round up”

  1. My gut feeling is short-term. I expect the Tory lead to still be sizeable, 6-8 points, but single figures rather than the sort of advantage they held in the last polls

  2. I see that none of the NI seats have had their names changed, so I would guess that not a great deal of change has taken place, although I will of course have a look at the websites mentioned above.

  3. The lead can’t be sustained at those levels.
    As a ‘rabid Tory’ I am still surprised by the last set. That said, I think we will still have a good lead.
    If Labour start saying ‘Good, we are only 8 points behind’ it will be a sign of how far all our expectations have travelled.

  4. Don’t forget we’ve also had BikeGate. It’ll be interesting to see what effect thats had. ;)

  5. with the first local govenment prediction in, i think some people will be saying sorry if repeated on polling day, beacuse as i stated a few weeks ago i think labour will lose big time in metroplitan seats, districts on a nife edge(thats most of them then) and unitry’s. some good news for labour is that if the conservatives can not reach the magic 45% mark then it’s not all over but if labour fall back to other parites then even if the conservatives fall short its a sign of change in the country, but still more left than under major or previous leaders

  6. I always find those local election predictions from Prof. Rallings to be generally quite inacurate. In previous years, I think they have tended to overestimate Labour’s share and underestimate the Conservatives share – So the results could end up even worse than Rallings is predicting! :O

  7. Just saw a quick glimpse of the front page of Fridays Telegraph on Sky. It seems the Tories have a 14% lead but did not see it long enough to get all the figures.

  8. Figures are Tories on 43 and Labour on 29 according to Ian Dale.
    No Lib Dem figures yet.

  9. Looks like the gap has narrowed 2 points since the last You Gov but increased 7 since the last DT You Gov.
    Better than I had expected.
    Some of the supplimental questions and answers are on pb.com [the Al Gore thread] at the moment for the anoraks that can’t wait.

  10. The last two YouGov/telegraph polls have had the Lab/Tory vote on a combined 73% and 74% and the Libdems on 16% on both.

    This has a combined of 72% so barring a big fall in others I’d say we are looking at a maximum Libdem vote of 18%.

    Having said that if it is Anti labour rather than Pro Tory then I wouldn’t rule out the LibDems still being on 16% and the SNP pulling ahead of labour in Scotland making up the other 1%.

    Even if it is that I am still not predicting more than 10-15 seat for the SNP in 2010.

    Peter.