Nicol Stephen is not seen as a particularly charismatic individual and the party hasn’t been helped by the perception that it stabbed both Charlie Kennedy and Menzies Campbell in the back.

I think the Unionists are just realising that devolution is a bit like Briggadon, the thing is once you start down that road you can never go back.

In a way you could argue there is a psychological driver to Independence. By successfully equating it with Freedom ( with or without Mel Gibsons awful accent) the SNP are saying;

“Do you want more freedom or less”.

I suspect that every time you ask the public that question you’ll get a majority saying “Yes”, so ever time it’s asked in whatever form you can anticipate a move towards greater autonomy and eventual full or de-facto Independence.

I suspect Donald Dewar knew or suspected that, but also accepted that once the question was being asked it couldn’t be ignored. In a way that shows he was wiser than Brown who’s response to difficult questions was seems to be to deny they are being asked.

While you can say that an SNP government wasn’t what Dewar wanted it’s clear that embracing the idea of devolution did blunt the SNP as a force to challenge Labour in Scotland for more than a decade while opposing it has seen the Tories go from the Largest party to less than a fifth of the vote and one seat.

Maybe what Donald Dewar realised that it’s better to fight a rearguard action and give ground slowly or hold what you’ve got that to attack against the odds and risk being routed.

Partly I suspect that many in Labour particularly MP’s have always had their eyes fixed firmly on Westminster and were happy to support devolution as a way to meet the SNP challenge without really looking at where it could lead.

By and large I think politicians aren’t that good at analysing the consequences of failure; They seem to think that their policies will work and when they don’t are at a loss to think what to do.

If you put these figures in to Scotland Votes at;

http://www.scotlandvotes.com/

You get the seat predictions given so I think that’s what the SNP have used. The Map that goes with it shows that the LibDems would hold only Orkney, Shetland and NE Fife as constituency seats and the Tories Roxburgh.

Having said that the figure in both Constituency and Regional for others are in my view clearly too low, so i would expect the SNP to be no higher than the mid fifties, although that’s a lot better than the current forty seven.

Peter.

If something seems too good to be true, it usually is, but this is a huge change in a short period. Even if it is only partly true, it is an important indication of change.

The new minority government is doing very well and certainly more popular than it was a year ago and I don’t doubt that these projections are pointing in the right direction. It isn’t unlikely that the projection could be matched or exceeded by the next SP election and that there could be a majority in favour of independence in the SP (though not necessarily in the electorate).

I have always been inclined to the view that devolution would facilitate and encourage a move to independance.

Prior to the referendum, that was a Conservative argument against devolution. If they believed that then, why is it that we don’t see the Conservative party preparing for independence?

The first time I heard the argument that a Home Rule parliament would lead to independence, it came not from a Conservative, but from a Nationalist who opposed it on the grounds that the good is the enemy of the best.

That was half a century ago, and I remember it clearly because of what the person who was arguing for a Home Rule parliament DIDN’T say, the way he hesitated before he DIDN’T say it, and especially the feeling I had at the time that there was some non-verbal communication between the two that I had missed.

That person who didn’t refute the idea that devolution would inevitably lead to independence was a 17 year old school friend then known as “The Gannet” but now is known as “The Father of the Nation”

Could somebody please explain to me how devolution was supposed to “see off the nationalists”; and why it isn’t working yet?

We have been on a slippery slope for nine years. This poll, if confirmed, shows that we have reached a tipping point. Can anything stop independence now, short of the entire SNP leadership being investigated for perjory, or fiddling their expenses AND being found in bed with minors.

Please tell me: Am I right or am I wrong?

The natural consequence of devolution is to facilitate and encourage the move to independence.

If you agree, then

Is it possible that Donald Dewar could work on the project without changing it in any significant way from the time when he was a 17 year old schoolboy, till the point when he took it through the Labour cabinet and still not realise that it would lead to independence?

I don’t think so. Do you?

The TNS/System Three poll details are:

* Scottish Parliament constituency vote (change since 2007 in brackets)

SNP: 45% (+12)
Lab: 31% (-1)
Con: 12% (-5)
Lib: 11% (-5)

* Scottish Parliament regional vote (change since 2007 in brackets)

SNP: 41% (+10)
Lab: 29% (-)
Con: 12% (-2)
Lib: 12% (+1)
Grn: 4%
Oth: 2%

* Holyrood seats projection:

SNP: 62 (+15)
Lab: 39 (-7)
Con: 13 (-4)
Lib: 13 (-3)
Grn: 2 (-)

* Westminster General Election (change since 2005 in brackets)

SNP: 31% (+13)
Lab: 39% (-1)
Con: 17% (+1)
Lib: 10% (-13)

TNS/System Three polled 1,086 adults between the 26th and 29th of April

I think this is confirmation of the media effect of seeing Labour in real trouble down south. I think there may well be a poll in at least one of the Sunday’s too.

Peter.