A new YouGov poll for the Evening Standard has voting intentions in the London mayoral election, with changes from the last poll carried out in late February, of JOHNSON 49%(+5), LIVINGSTONE 37%(-2), PADDICK 12%(nc).

The poll was conducted between the 12th and 14th of March, and is the first conducted since Lee Jasper’s resignation. It shows Boris Johnson with 12 point lead and – it would seem – the momentum behind him. Boris has almost enough support to win on the first count, but the poll suggests Brian Paddick’s second preferences would split 41-34 in Johnson’s favour anyway.

Others are way don at 3%, which still seems unduly low – once the campaign proper starts and the other parties receive some coverage I would expect it to rise.

19 Responses to “Boris leads Ken by 12 points in latest poll”

  1. Odd. January’s numbers had Livingstone ahead 44/40. Any indication what’s doing the damage elsewhere in the numbers? Labour drag-down? Lee Jasper’s problems? Boris just keeping his mouth shut?

    The Paddick->Johnson transfer imbalance seems implausible, though. Surely Lib Dem voters don’t think BoJo would be a better mayor? This makes me think the overall changes point to problems with the Labour brand.

  2. James – the January poll is probably best ignored – the sample size was only around 340 and only about 240 people gave voting intentions, so the margin of error on it renders the figures of very little worth.

    There are no other questions in the YouGov tables (though it’s possible the Evening Standard asked other questions and will publish them later in the week) so we can only guess at might might have caused the shift.

  3. Not sure that the Labour brand would affect Ken, as his whole thing is that he is not really part of the labour mainstream….

    It could just be that, as with the Westminster vote, many people just want a change.

  4. Wow-YoyGov is certainly pushing the Conservative boat out at present.

    William Rees-Mogg writing in today’s Times about The Sunday Times Poll says YouGov are “probably the most reliable of the opinion polls”

    I hope he is correct!

  5. Do the Tories really want Boris to win?

  6. It is a good point and one I am hearing more and more. I think Adam Boulton said when interviewing Ken on Sunday “Is’nt 2 terms enough for the votrs?”.

    By the way Ben Brogan is reporting that The Guardian tonight is reporting the findings of an ICM poll that gives the Tories a 13 point lead over Labour. The numbers are: Lab 29 (-5); Con 42 (+5); LD 21 (+/-0).

    Alasdair Cameron

    Not sure that the Labour brand would affect Ken, as his whole thing is that he is not really part of the labour mainstream….

    It could just be that, as with the Westminster vote, many people just want a change.

  7. Colin – Did WRM say this when Yougov had Labour well in front?

  8. Yes that Guardian Poll is on Guardian online.

    So that’s both YouGov & ICM now showing Labour at sub-thirty-and both showing Cons around 42/43. The only difference is still the wide gap on LibDems assessment.

    The trends are identical though.

    Is this looking like a second watershed?

    First the non-election/Conference performance-now the 2008 Budget/Economy.

  9. I think it may well be that with the turn of the year and no improvement in the Governments performance we have actually seen a mood change and that the governments time is up.

    As for Ken I am not sure he has ever been that popular just better than those that were up against him. Now that their is a real challenge even though it’s Boris it’s his lack of real popularity is showing.

    I think what might be counting against both Brown and Livingstone is a public perception that both men feel they are there as of right and are taking the people for granted.

    Whether they deserve that perception is another matter but it’s a dangerous tag to get stuck with.

    Both do seem to an extent to have been labelled as control freaks and authoritarian and that doesn’t go down after a while, it certainly came to eventually haunt Thatcher and Blair.


  10. TJ Jones-I don’t know in all honesty.Presumably he believed them then , as he does now.

    Polls change-and YouGov/ICM are now changing in unison it would seem.

    There is a long way to go though and perhaps they will change again……all the same this is beginning to look interesting I’m sure you would agree?

  11. The budget does seem to have upset people.

    I was in Tesco on Sunday buying some wine and people were going mad in there stocking up like it was Christmas. One lady said she was buying a 6 month supply of wine before the tax increase comes into effect. They were all moaning like about the government saying they have lost the plot and getting very angry with them. I was absolutely amazed by their reaction and never thought this tax increse would get people so upset.

  12. All falling into place – as i said recently 1st May will be a very interesting POLLING night indeed / and i did say that in London , as with Scotland and the rest of the UK – Labour are now in FREEFALL and there is no turning back for them – there may be the odd rogue POLL between now and future elections over the next 2 years – but the slide is inevitable – AND FINALLY contributors on here are AGREEING with my predictions way back in August last year while the Tories were still behind in the POLLS .

  13. “The Paddick->Johnson transfer imbalance seems implausible, though. Surely Lib Dem voters don’t think BoJo would be a better mayor? This makes me think the overall changes point to problems with the Labour brand.”

    James, many Lib Dem voters out there are in reality one nation Conservatives, who defected to the Libs in 1997 and are slowly coming back (being speeded up the party’s leftward march), look at last years local elections for evidence.

    So it comes as no surprise to me that the majority would choose Boris over Ken on second preference votes.

    On the wider issue I think many people are just fed up with Ken and want a change.

  14. Mike, are you having problems with your caps lock?

    As Ian says, Boris is picking up significant second votes from the Lib Dems which suggest that many people are going for anyone but Labour rather than basing their decisions on policy.

    As amused as I am by both Boris and his campaign (which seems to amount to “for God’s sake keep the candidate quiet”), I’m interested to know whether the Tories here believe he’ll make a good mayor?

    Personally I’d be more than a little worried about the possibility that he was going to drop one of his clangers and in doing so damage the party at a critical time. He’s many things but a safe pair of hands isn’t one of them.

    Still, you’ve got to salute the man as one of that rarest of dying breeds – the interesting politician.

  15. The latest opinion polls are such that one would expect the London elections to reflect national concern with the economic crisis regardless of local issues or personalities. Which is perhaps a pity.

    I have not delved down in the last couple of days into regional breakdowns of voting intentions, but high house prices in London and the high mobility of its inhabitants must leave voters in the capital particulary vulnerable to falling house prices and higher mortgages. And difficulties in the financial sector which dominates London endangers the jobs of many voters. All this is bad news for Labour and Livingstone.

    Not insignificantly, if the election is dominated by economic issues the Greens may suffer from their identification with environmental questions, even though arguably the current economic crisis is lnked to environmental problems. This endangers the current Green position where they have just enough support to get their political voice heard in London on very important matters.

  16. Ian – many Lib Dems are indeed actually one nation Tories, but to say that the Lib Dems are marching leftward hardly reflects the current direction of the party. With the Orange Book people now firmly incharge it is now more obviously ‘liberal’ in the economic and social sense than the Tories…

  17. Not every Tory wants to vote for Boris, for fear that he is not up to the job. We will end up voting for UKIP or, perhaps, Brian Paddick.

  18. Marcia – perhaps but your second choice will be Boris before Ken and that’s what it will come down to.

  19. I think that none of the candidates are particularly inspiring people in a positive sense. But I think there is a much more obvious “Anyone but Ken” mentality than in previous elections.

    I think he has converted a lot of previously ambivalent, apathetic voters to turn out in force this time around – probably to Boris’ benefit overall.