Biggest Tory lead for 20 years
YouGov’s monthly poll for the Sunday Times, one of the the first voting intention polls since the budget, has quite startling topline figures: CON 43%(+3), LAB 27%(-6), LDEM 16%(nc). The poll was conducted between the 13th and 14th of March, so after respondents would have seen the newspaper reaction to the budget.
The 16% Conservative lead is the largest YouGov have ever recorded and the largest any company has produced since October 1987. There are people old enough to vote who weren’t born the last time the Tories were this far ahead. If repeated at a general election it would produce a Conservative landslide majority of 122.
It’s tempting to automatically assume that such a massive shift this must be a rogue poll. My guess is that it will indeed prove to be an outlier – the shift is just too large- but a second poll, this time from ICM in the News of the World, confirms a significant shift towards the Tories since the budget. ICM’s topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 40%(+3), LAB 31%(-3), LDEM 20%(-1). The ICM poll was conducted between the 12th and 13th of March.
More later when details of the polls are available.
Filed under: ICM, Voting Intention, YouGov
Anthony – you surely mean 13th and 14th March above, and not February
Anthony, 1st Para, I think you mean March not February?
jsfl, i am a total wally, I am sitting here thinking, who is Anthony from 1st para regiment ?
Probably a rogue poll, it should be much higher than that.
These polls feel right to me. The budget was desperate. Darling unbelievably complacent. Brown’s grinning obnoxious and Balls comments arrogant. Out here in the real world I think people have had enough of the lot of them.
Now will people be so quick to mock the Mighty Ocracle?
The Tories have had an exceptionally week, what with Labour’s terrible Budget and Cameron’s family on ITN, so I’m expecting more big leads with other pollsters.
I much as I would like it be true a 16 point lead is unlikely and unrealistic. But the budget midweek was very poor, both in delivery and content, so I am not surprised there has been a drop in support for Labour.
It still feel the Lib Dems will experience a substantial third party squeeze ( as in 1987) at the next election so 16% for them is not impossible.
Now will people be so quick to mock the Mighty Ocracle?
The Tories have had an exceptionally good week, what with Labour’s terrible Budget and Cameron’s family on ITN, so I’m expecting more big leads with other pollsters
ChrisC-
what did i say 43% for the Con’s.
i’ve had a look on another web-site and they say it’s the biggest lead for the Con’s for 18yrs not 20yrs, the field work will be intresting but the points is a 16pt lead at this stage is good but it needs to be held at that level or labour and other partys will claw back ground on the conservatives and they may not win the next election but if the regional break down is to go by acurate or not a clear pattern is showing it’s self in other polls that in the north the conservatives are making up ground at a steady pace and in the midlands things could not be better if your in a swing seat as both labour and the lib dems are only holding the core vote and the conservatives and other right wing and strong left wing parties are gaining votes. in the south and wales the pattern is much the same but the gap is closing much slower in wales than in the south of the united kingdom and the midlands where the Con lead is growing fast, and finaly in scotland the conservatives are making up ground and the SNP are holding steady, labour are up and down in almost ever poll so far but the average vote is in the low 30’s down around 7 to 9%, so bad news all round if your labour, hope if your a lib dem and don’t jump for joy yet if your from the conservatives but open a can of beer and talk about the next move from the shadow cabint to number 10.
I think we should wait for some more polls to be published before assuming this is rogue.
I have always thought of YouGov is the most accurate of the pollsters, while ComRes seems to overstate the Tory lead and the rest of them understating it.
I understand Labour are expecting (according to election supremo Hazel Blears )to do well in Liverpool in the local elections.
We won’t get a real sense of the budget until people get their first pay packet in April – i.e. May polls – local and London election results.
The variation we have seen since September suggests that the number of people prepared to move parties is increasing and that things are volatile, it will be interesting to see if we get to a period when the polls are more settled and in agreement with eachother.
Do we know the yougov raw figures before statistically adjusted
I notice YouGov has never before shown Labour or the Tories below 31%.
Having a new YouGov & ICM at the same time is very interesting.
There is still a large gap in their respective assessment of LibDem support.
Whilst Labour were at 33/34 ish-which they both agreed on, the Lib Dem disparity was critical-producing either a significant Con lead ( YouGov)-or an insignificant one ( ICM)
But now that both ICM & YouGov show a shift from Lab to Con, the LibDem disparity is of less significance….you can have either a fantastic Con lead, or a merely significant one.
I am happy to accept the latter(ICM) & believe the former is overstated because the YouGov LibDem figure is too low .
The post Budget trend away from Labour in both of these polls makes absolute sense. The Budget hit the already strained pockets of the middle class -but also the “white working class”.-it was a vote loser par excellence.
These Poll results are credible good news for Conservatives-but they still have to start scoring goals of their own as well as accepting own goals from Labour.
I’m not sure at all that the apparent post budget poll shift is particularly significant. I really can’t see that after 10 years of Labour, 14p on a bottle of wine will suddenly make the middle classes turn against them. There probably is an impact – lots of headlines proclaiming more expensive drinks etc, but when the prices kick in tomorrow people will carry on drinking and in a few weeks time I doubt there will be any great affect on polls.
I think what is more interesting is the large movements and disparities we are seeing. Its as if there is no settled view on politics as yet, and small news stories make a big but short term impact. It’s only a week ago that Tories themselves were thinking things were looking a bit tight – now they are 16 points clear?
Alec, the significance of the budget, is that I believe people are well capable of readsing between the lines and figuring out that the economy is in serious, serious trouble now. Alistair tried to present it that we are better placed under Labour to solve the economic problems, but there was never any guarantee the public would buy it.
Colin. 9 points is ‘merely a significant lead’?
You damn with faint praise.
Labour [who have never in recent times been UNDER represented in polls at election time] had a 12 point lead in their ‘historic’ landslide.
Then it went to about 5 then to 2.5!
If there was a nine point lead in a election that would be a BIG win in terms of popular vote.
Alec-I don’t think it’s one item in isolation from the last Budget-or even the last Budget itself in isolation.
We have all agreed on here I think with the truism that when the voters’ pockets are affected, that influences their opinions.
All household budgets are now being hit by fuel & food price increases.Yes I know-it’s not the Governments fault-but that’s irrelevant-these are key components of the domestic budget for most people..
Council Tax continues to be an increasing burden for many.
Then we have a budget in which the Government takes more money from the average person-the daily pint-the glass of wine-fuel tax again-and the cost of motoring.
And all of this in the context of the telling point made by the Tories that Brown kept nothing back for a rainy day-Bush gives tax back to help in a downturn-Darling takes more tax because he has no money left.
These may be simplistic images , but I think they are telling ones, and it doesn’t surprise me that the last Budget has brought them into focus a little more for the average person.
It was perhaps a mistake to say ,on the one hand-we are not in recession/the economy is strong/we will weather this storm-and on the other hand-but I need to raise more taxes from you.
It remains to be seen whether the slippage from Labour to Cons in these two Polls is sustained-you may be right-it might be short term.
We shall see.
SallyC
I don’t mean to damn at all. I’m just trying to be cautious & not get overconfident.Yes 9% is very good -if sustained.
Cameron is doing a pretty good job in my view-but still has work to do in convincing people of the merits of his party-the de-merits of the Government don’t need too much explanation just now.
I thought his speech today was excellent.
Alec, you probably right in that 14p extra on a bottle of wine isn’t going to make people turn against them but don’t forget this year the 10p income tax rate disappears and many people will be worse off. There was an opportunity to reverse this policy but it was not taken. As someone said earlier, wait till people start seeing their pay packets
I can’t think of many popular budgets myself apart from the giveaways in the late 80’s – maybe Anthony or someone has some figures revealing whether a tight budget deal can result in a significant dip in government support.
Saying that I remember the 90’s unpopular fuel price escalator and it seems we have the same thing for booze over the next few years, there were good reasons for both but I imagine most people just see it as a tax rise.
I think this sort of opposition lead for this stage in a third term is quite plausible. No election this year then.
Thank you GIN – a contributor to this site who appreciates my predictions !
I hate to say it – “but i told you all so” / any blips in POLLS for the Tories is no reason to run for the hills for Tory supporters – it’s just a little respite for the beluigered followers of the Government and their allies the Liberals .
ANTHONY :- Your graph need a bit of adjusting – it shows the Tories on 41% , Labour on 33% & the Liberals on 17%. (i do hope this gets published)
I think the budget has a bit to do with the swing as will a further swing after the Tory conference in Gateshead this week .
I can remember predicting Labour getting as low as 27% a couple of months ago when someone else on here claimed that Labour’s core vote was about 34% – i said that Labor’s core vote was more like 27% as it went to under Michael Foot.
By the time of the General Election in 2010 the result will be Conservative 45% / Labour 27% / Liberal 18% giving the Tories a 164 seat majority and for PETER CAIRNS 11 new seats for the Tories in Scotland .
Please feel free to cut and paste my prediction !!
I suggest everyone on Polling night 1st May sat up all night – it will be a corker !!
Well – there are’nt many councils left for the Tories to win now after 10 years of victories – but the percentages will be great to look at .
London will be the star of the show that night!
According to the specoifo polls on the budget we have seen, the measures in the budget were relatively popular…including even the alchohol price increaces. So, if all the major announcements in he bidget were popular, why has Labour suffered so big a swing after the budget? The evidence seems contradictory.
Much as I would like to believe this YouGov poll, the WMA is 40:31:18. But it is a BIG puzzle. The apparent YouGov error, 7%, is the worst WMA error of ANY poll since the start of 2006 from any pollster, and this from the pollster which is generally the most accurate (Std of Retrospectives 1.9).
The last time YouGov had a big WMA error (5.6% on 6/10/07) the Retrospective error turned out to be 3.2 and my guess is that when we see the Retrospectives the true situation will be 41:30:18.
I find it hard to believe the YouGov figures but my gut instinct says that the Tories are gathering more support.
Perhaps what happened in the budget really opened people’s mind to the Government’s precarious financial position. Very little of significance happened in the budget yet people feel that the economy is going south and the Government did nothing to help the situation because they have no room for manoeuvre.
In addition many people will see less money in their pay packets next month so this could further affect sentiment.
I’ve been saying on this site for a while that the Budget could be a watershed for Government support and perhaps as I was right.
Still I think the You Gov poll is a rogue and would probably put the Tory lead at about 9-10 points like the ICM poll.
The last ICM poll in February was only showing a 3 point lead so to get a 9 point lead with ICM a month later must be great news for the Tories.
Still believe the YouGov poll is a rogue but whatever is happening there is obviously some major shift since the Budget.
Will it be temporary or have people shifted for good? The next few polls and the local elections in May will no doubt give us the answer.
if anybody wants a sunday morning laugh sunday times page 19.
allan milburn,a man responsible for playing his part in this mess,raising taxes by 36% of gdp to 44% of gdp and employing an extra 2,500,000 people in the state payroll.
does he think we are all daft? spin still gets copy.
Lukew, its not the individual measures that have damaged Labour, its the overall economic message that came out. The party that promised no more boom and bust, and said there would never again be a recession, has had to admit the economy is looking now in poor shape. The Cameron/Osborne message that Labour have failed to “save for a rainy day” is an easy one to understand, and I suspect a lot of people agree.
Added to that Cameron appearing on ITN with his family, and you can see theres been a surge in Tory support at the same time as Labour vote has gone right down again. As Mike R has predicted, there could well be a further boost for tge Conservatives after this weekends party conference.
Some of the detail in The Sunday Times from the YouGov Poll is pretty damning for Labour:-
86% believe their bills are rising faster than GB’s “inflation” figure.
78% believe the Government wastes “huge” amounts of taxpayers money.
66% believe Labour spent too much in the good times.
74% think the “green ” taxes were a con.
6 out of 10 believe that making the public sector more efficient will create room for lowering the tax burden.
It is bad enough that Labour have lost their lead in economic competence.
But their key message -the one which always frightened the horses-was The Tories will cut Public expenditure, we will increase it.
If this is losing it’s potency & people begin to accept that there is a balance to be struck-sharing the proceeds of growth to coin a phrase-then Labour could be in big trouble.
The tragedy for GB , as he backpeddles like crazy on immigration,welfare to work,the GP contract et al is that it might be too late.
As a Conservative supporter I always feared that NuLab would successfully morph into a CentreRight policy phase whilst still “frightening the horses” about the Tories.But if the punters have seen through this then the Tories have taken a major step forward.
I guess we will see whether these polls are a watershed , or just post budget blues.
Colin and the Times seemed to miss the one where the vast majority of the public want to hit the energy companies with a windfall tax.Strange how that didn’t appear in the Times report on the poll.
Good grief, those numbers look bad for the government, don’t they?
Mike “the oracle”:-
There’s still no reason to expect the Tories are going to win 11 seats in Scotland, however rampant they are south of the Tweed! The Yougov sample shows the Conservatives on a less-than-whopping 18% in Scotland, which is pretty much the middle of where they show up usually. Scotland is the only area polled where Labour are still ahead of the Conservatives (on 30%, pretty low for them) and meanwhile the SNP are the true beneficiaries, riding high on 37%.
I know it’s only a sub-sample, but if someone else wants to use it to make ridiculous claims, then I feel no shame in using it to throw cold water at them.
If the sub-sample figures are used to project which seats are won (I know it ain’t going to happen), the total seats for each party would be
SNP 27 (pinch me, someone!)
Lab 22
Con 6
Lib Dem 4
Still a remakrable result for the Tories, given their dismal performance in recent years, but I can’t help thinking there’d be another story on the front page…
Steven
PS It’s still an amzing poll for the Tories, overall. Perhaps an unusually large number of whisky-drinking 4×4 owners were caught in the sample?
Yes – Gin the numbers do look bad for the Government and there is precious little they can do about it before the next election.
They CAN’T increase taxes anymore as this would hurt them further in the polls. There is certainly no money in the coffers for pre-election tax cuts.
They WON’T cut public spending,which is what they should be doing, as this will be tantamount to them admitting that they got it wrong.
The Govenment is reduced to keeping its fingers crossed and hoping for the best.
Doesn’t look to me like there will be an election now before 2010. But pity Cameron and Tories,if they do win, when they take a detailed look at the books because they too will have to take some very hard decisions particularly on public spending.
It is interesting that the LibDems have not made any gains out of the Labour unpopularity – whether the unpopularity is totally due to the budget is another matter.
Steven F,
Thanks for the Scottish figures, if correct even with the small sample then what they point to is the public turning more away from Labour than to the Tories, as in England the main beneficiary of Labours woes are the closest party to them the Tories and in Scotland that’s the SNP.
I think that’s the difference between the way we see it and Mike “the Orifice” Richardson, he just doesn’t see Scotland as having a different dynamic to the rest of mainland UK. Scottish politics isn’t (yet) as distinctive as N Ireland, but it is very different from the South East it’s a four party system where the Tories are a poor third, not a three party one where the Tories are ahead.
I think if Labour looks beaten and Cameron looks set for No 10 in two years time the Tories could go up to 4 or 5 seats in Scotland, but the prospect of a Tory government could be better for the SNP than the Tories and it might even get Scottish Labour votes out.
Westminster will be fought and won in and around London, but the Scottish results in 2010 will set the scene for Holyrood 2011, and that means we have everything to play for.
Anthony,
There is a report in the Sunday Herald of a poll showing Alex Salmond 75% ahead of Wendy Alexander, but as I can’t get it to download I don’t no anymore than that headline.
Peter.
Peter – it was a mruk poll, someone posted it in Mike Smithson’s comments yesterday it you want to trawl through and find it
These polls are absolutely fantastic and seem to show a consistent trend now. I’m betting the election will be put back to 2010 if this continues!
Now we know that these polls will start to slip away as the election draws nearer (during the conference season alone we can look forward to three weeks of Tory bashing by the Lib-Lab parties followed by a week of pro-Tory coverage), so the best I am expecting is still a hung parliament.
The main thing that these polls are starting to show is that Gordon Brown doesn’t look like he has a cat in hells chance of winning a majority at the next election. Beyond that, I’m not sure how useful they are; the Lib Dems for one are bound to perform better than these headline figures would suggest.
However, these polls have given me a sneak preview into a dream reverse 1997 election in which losing their seats are Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly, Business Secretary John Hutton, Chancellor Alistair Darling (the man that has done so much to secure these vast Tory leads), Lib Dem frontbenchers Chris Huhne, Sandra Gidley, Susan Kramer, Julia Goldsworthy, Nick Harvey, Don Foster and many many others. Struggling for survival by a few hundred either way would also be Jack Straw, John Denham and Nick Clegg. It would indeed by a marvellous sight…shame it won’t happen, really.
TJ Jones
I didn’t comment on the energy company rip-off opinion because it doesn’t seem to have a political conotation?
You could say it was a plus for Darling because he said he expects them to spend more on “social” tariffs.Or you could say it was a negative because he baulked at a windfall tax ??
It looks like the gradually faltering Tory lead in 2008 is being corrected, which is good news in my view.
I think Labour’s figures are rather under-stated though – and could be a short term reaction.
But there is small print in the budget – like increases in NI across about 5,000 on upper middle earners – exactly the people who are probably struggling to pay their mortgages. Much will depend on how the economy performs, but I’m starting to think the election will be delayed to the last possible date.
[...] adsblog Categories: Uncategorized A YouGov poll has given the Tories their biggest lead in 20 years. Coming on the back of the Tory conference, and also following a Labour budget which had to deal [...]
The actual question was if people agreed with “The government wastes large amounts of taxpayers’ money and is not trying seriously to reduce the level of waste”. About 78% agree regardless of gender, age, social class or region. If people answered the Voting Intention question after they had been asked these it would account for the anomalously high level of C support. (one can, of course, wonder about the economic literacy of the remaining 22%)
Interestingly, even 53% of Labour voters agreed with this statement, vs 35% who disagree.
I too think that a 2010 election is more and more likely however, I always think that a Govt that wait till the last possible month before called the election ‘look’ as if they are running scared and feel they will lose. Of course recent history of 1992 proves me wrong but never mind
After the bad news for labour in the polls over the weekend I expect we will see Brown and his colleges on TV again spouting out headline grabbing reviews and new policies with very little substance its all so predictable
I mentioned here before as an ex labour voter I have found Brown and his government a complete turn off but i am sure Brown will have a few more tricks up his sleeve between now and a genral election but I think it will all be to no avail as people will of had enough and see through it all and the Ed Balls comment has helped the Tories on their way
It has supprised me though how an obviously intelligent and very experieced operator like Brown seems to get so many things wrong
I would like to know if any polling experts here know about any polls carried out on the marginal seats only or seats the Tories must win to win the GE not being a polling buff I was just interested if there is any up to date information out there
Glenn – there have been no polls of marginal seats since October 2007 (which was obviously a very different time politically)
Mike the Oracle or Orifice Richardson on March 12th on the so called rogue polls
“Firstly – let’s look at the “ROGUE POLLS” since 6/10/07
Populus on 6/10/07 had a Labour lead of +2% (everyone else had an average Tory lead of +5%)
Ipsos Mori on 23/10/07 had a Labour lead of +1% (everyone else had an average Tory lead of +7%)
Populus on 4/11/07 had a Labour lead of +1% (everyone else had an average Tory lead of +7%)
Ipsos Mori on 23/1/08 had a Labour lead of +1% (everyone else had an average Tory lead of +6%”
You cannot have your cake and eat it – the way you dismiss certain polls because you and all of your tory friends on here do not like them, but yet one poll showing a lead of 16 % is taken as gospel.
As you can see from your very own figures, the tory lead has been on average around 6 or 7 % since October and I can well believe that. You and all of your tory friends have been predicting big double digit tory leads for months now that just haven’t materialised, and whether these polls are the beginning of this we will all have to wait and see won’t we.
If you wish to be an “oracle” and be believed, you need to show much less bias in your projections, and as for May 1st being a “corker” remember that Labour did very badly 4 years ago in the same elections. In fact these elections were very soon after the invasion of Iraq, it may even be that Labour may even recover in some places. The London mayor elections are too close to call
I’m not aware of any detailed polls in marginal seats – there is some hearsay that the Tories might be doing better in marginals now (which certainly hasn’t been true from 1992 to 2005).
But I do remember Neil Kinnock – and Ivor Crewe claiming Labour were doing better in marginal seats just before the 1992 election. I rather dismissed it at the time, because it was the Tories who were more efficient with their vote in 1987 and I was still assuming that. I was wrong, even though Labour lost the 1992 election, they achieved a near 4% swing in marginals.
I am unaware whether there is any such re-alignment of which of the two main parties is doing better in marginals now. I guess there will be some tilting back in favour of the Tories, because some of the bias was related to tactical voting, but it will still certainly be Labour who distributes their vote more efficiently, because the difference has become quite massive.
Has anyone seen the Mirror, page 2. They interpret these polls as “Cameron – election poll blow”!
It’s apparently based a fall in Cameron’s appeal among women.
Thanks Anthony/Joe It does supprise slightly that there is not a lot more intense polling in these seats because ultimately they will decide the election (I guess)
Although I suppose it wont be until nearer the election when more of these polls will appear it would just be interesting that we could see what is happening in these seats on a more regular basis
Oh no! I can’t decide if I’m more upset that my party is 16 points down and we’re facing the prospect of a jumped-up marketing guy* running our country for 5 years or that Mike “the oracle” Richardson might actually get a prediction right.
*yes, I know, it’s a partisan comment but you have to have some sympathy for the last few of us Labour supporters still brave enough to post up here.
Anthony: I’d really like to know whether the questions about government waste and mendacity could have framed the voting intention question. How does it work – do you ask the Voting Intention question first or last?
Brown needs to stop trying to impress the Daily Mail, and start being New Labour again. With Blair we knew what he stood for. No one knows what Brown stands for except for trying to do well in the opinion polls.
People want politicians to follow their beliefs and changes things for the better, not to crave power for the sake of power.
I fear Cameron may win the next election. I also fear his party wouldn’t let him stick with the moderate agenda he’s putting forward right now.
Dump brown and get David Miliband as leader, he seems to have a way with communicating with people and putting his vision across that this current front bench lacks.
NBeale – always first.
Steve Wheeler
As a bit of an activist, I will put in a request that the first thing the newly elected Tory Government do is give you a medal.
I hope that prospect cheers you up.
‘Services Above and Beyond the Call of Duty’ do you?
A stering supporter. I hope they deserve you.
Sterling supporter that is…
Steve Wheeler
Don’t give up yet – remember the recent couple of polls with low single digit leads. One or two of our conservative’s here were getting just a little worried. But it IS a bit scary
Marc
If you have another look at the budget, you’ll see that, within the severe constraints,it was in some ways a good Labour budget – with wealth redistributed to continue the reduction of child poverty as a key feature. Few middle class votes in that but well worth doing; and hardly “trying to do well in opinion polls”. (Although that is surely the ultimate aim of all politicians, and not in itself ignoble).
John Curtice, analysing this poll in The Independent, says “Every post-war opposition that won the next election secured 50 per cent in the polls at some point.”
Is this true?
And more to the point, it it relevant?
Toby – to the second part, not really. If you go back to 1979 or times previous to that when the government changed hands the Liberals and fringe parties took a tiny proportion of the vote, it was much easier for a party to get to 50%.
There is only one example of an opposition winning power in the age of real two and a half party politics we’re in these days: Labour in 1997. It’s true in their case, but I probably wouldn’t extrapolate any rules from a single instance.
Why would Labour want to hold on until 2010? Egotism or desperation (a’ la John Major, 1997)…?
Bear Stearns has just Northern Rock’ed, and markets are crashing. PWC’s worst case scenario (published in this weeks “The Economist”; probably as reliable as Master Darling’s economic projections) would imply a long recession in 2008/9. House-prices expected to fall at a faster rate in 2009 (following negative growth in 2008). What is it that makes politicians hang-on…?
These polls makes my gut-instinct, that June is the right time to call an election, less likely to be realised. But with the public-finances tight, it is better to take a fall now, and not wait for a bigger one later? Cannot see how anything will be better in 2010, and forcing the opposition to handle the fall might improve New Labour’s chances in 2013/4.
I can only assume that New Labour see their beer glass containing a full 284 millilitres. Unfortunately my pint glass in 10 fluid-ounces empty….
Marc I agree with you some of Browns antics since he has become Prime Minister has led me to belive he is just so desperate to be liked by the public
I was not happy with the way Blair was ousted then forgotton there should have been a proper vote for a new leader by the Labour as that didnt happen Brown should have called an election at the Labour party conference after putting his vision forward what has happened since is down to him and rather the Labour party beliving Brown was their saviour he will be the one that will make them unelectable not Blair
Glenn Benson, I am starting a petition to get you some punctuation!
Fair comment Alasdair but in fairness some people may not of had education like yourself, I will try next time but im sure you get point I was trying to make.
Something on this site eats punctuation and spelling. I have a special aversion to the “grocer’s apostrophe” but one crept into my last posting! (Maybe I was distracted by the pain of seeing a very slight decline in Labour support after a few more hopeful poll results).
It’s true. I make tonnes of mistakes in my posts here.. I think it’t the quick typing and posting. Also, I find I make more mistakes typing from a laptop.
I think I noticed an extraneous “very slight” in your last post JohnH!
I think the lack of ideological diffference is helping Cameron get across the “time for change” message. There won’t be any inflationary tax cuts, or wholesale public spending cuts, apart from cuts in so-called waste. Many people will of course have their jobs categorised as “waste”, but the political difficulties won’t arise until the redundancies start to kick in.
I think Glenn has a point in that Brown’s position would have been improved by a proper leadership election (though to be consistent with his next post Glenn should’ve said “should of” and not “should have”.
Without any personal criticism: please can YouGov use a polite decorum forum for communications and etiquette…? The following does not add value, and should – dare I say – be relegated to local counsel/council…!
“Glenn Benson
Marc I agree with you some of Browns antics since he has become Prime Minister has led me to belive he is just so desperate to be liked by the public
I was not happy with the way Blair was ousted then forgotton there should have been a proper vote for a new leader by the Labour as that didnt happen Brown should have called an election at the Labour party conference after putting his vision forward what has happened since is down to him and rather the Labour party beliving Brown was their saviour he will be the one that will make them unelectable not Blair
March 17th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Alasdair Cameron
Glenn Benson, I am starting a petition to get you some punctuation!
March 17th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Glenn Benson
Fair comment Alasdair but in fairness some people may not of had education like yourself, I will try next time but im sure you get point I was trying to make.
March 17th, 2008 at 1:41 pm”
As a frequent visitor to the following blog I have found it even with administered rules. Could we contributers not employ a similar system…?
Thanks, these rules seem to work…. http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/rules.php
John H,
I agree with what you say about there being some small redistributive efforts in the Budget but I can’t help but agree with what Marc said about grabbing the Daily Mail vote. I understand Browns tactic about holding the middle ground and “the goverment of all the talents” stuff but I think he’s gone too far and allowed Cameron to convince the public that the Tories are the party who care about the NHS and the elderly and the under-privileged.
I do trust Gordon Brown and I do think he cares about the same things I care about but I think he needs to start arguing the case for Labour on traditional Labour values.
At the end of the day if a person cares most about lower taxes, inheritance tax etc they’ll vote for the Conservatives anyway.
Sally,
Thanks, that would be ace! I’ll put it with my “Last Social Democrat (nearly) in The Labour Party” award.
William Rees-Mogg says in The Times today :-
“….I have looked up the table at the end of Colin Rallings’s and Michael Thrasher’s Media Guide; this converts voting preferences into seats. I found that the authors had not even included a column in which Labour has only 27 per cent; this YouGov poll has gone off their scale.”
terra incognita.
Steve-please keep the faith & post on.Without different views there is no politicsyour”bravery” much appreciated !;-)
Steve Wheeler and co.Have faith still plenty of time yet.
Just think what it would be like on Conservative Home,sorry,I mean this messageboard if the polls swing back around.It’s not like it has not happened before.Think back to 8 months ago.
Keep the faith…tic toc…tic toc.
Just as a rule of thumb I tend to almost make a paragraph out of a sentence because it’s just easier to read on a screen.
After all it’s not like paper that you need to pay for, screen space is free.
Peter.
Brown’s “political genius” is bailing out – about time someone left with 5 ministers gone already. Meanwhile the Evening Standard Mayoral poll gives a similar C support in London to the YouGov tables. Let’s see what the next polls bring.
The BBC news website says that ICM are reporting a 13point lead to the Conservatives?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7301163.stm
Is this there anything in this or are they just trying to rub it in?
Oh I see now
STEVE WHEELER – I had more faith in you than to run for the hills as some past Tories on here have done with a bad POLL.
Following the ICM poll this YouGov one looks accurate, not an outlier.
The financial crisis of the last week, and the pathetic budget that showed Labour’s lack of control over the UK’s fate, appear to have caused a shift similar to that the Tories suffered over withdrawal from the ERM.
Perhaps it is a bigger surprise that we have not had polls like this ever since Northern Rock, but the Tories’ own history perhaps helps explain.
As usual, the reports underplay Other repsonse. There appears to be a shift to “Others”.
It will be interesting to see the voting intentions analyses according to reported voting at previous elections. Mu suspicion is that Labour vters are desrting to both Lib Dems and Tories, but the voters the Lib dems are gaining are being offset by Lib Dem voters switching to the Tories. This is bad news for the Lib Dems, because they would lose the many Southern seats they hold from the Tories by a narrow margin, whilst picking up votes in Northern Lib Dem/Labour marginals, of which there are fewer.
Fluffy; So I will watch with interest the value of your contributions to this site, apart from slatig other people!
[...] the Sunday Times YouGov poll that put the Tories sixteen points ahead of the comrades. Although the UK Polling Report concluded that this one was probably an outrider, a subsequent ICM poll confirmed the (albeit [...]