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	<title>Comments on: Tory lead falling in latest Populus poll</title>
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	<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136</link>
	<description>Independent Survey and Polling News</description>
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		<title>By: TJ Jones</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136/comment-page-2#comment-362563</link>
		<dc:creator>TJ Jones</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Mar 2008 12:25:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136#comment-362563</guid>
		<description>One thing I like about this messageboard is the fact that most of the threads go off at a tangent,oh and the oracle,his predictions and his justification for them.

Again,keep up the good work.

ps Anthony,twice isp bitten,thrice shy</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One thing I like about this messageboard is the fact that most of the threads go off at a tangent,oh and the oracle,his predictions and his justification for them.</p>
<p>Again,keep up the good work.</p>
<p>ps Anthony,twice isp bitten,thrice shy</p>
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		<title>By: Darling, you were wonderful: Westminster Watch: w/b 10th March 2008 &#124; The Wardman Wire</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136/comment-page-2#comment-362557</link>
		<dc:creator>Darling, you were wonderful: Westminster Watch: w/b 10th March 2008 &#124; The Wardman Wire</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Mar 2008 12:03:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136#comment-362557</guid>
		<description>[...] is, in fact a policy. You&#8217;d expect a hammering in the polls, right? Well, apparently not if Monday&#8217;s Populus poll is to be believed: the Tories are down three on 37, and the comrades and the LibDems are up three and two points [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] is, in fact a policy. You&#8217;d expect a hammering in the polls, right? Well, apparently not if Monday&#8217;s Populus poll is to be believed: the Tories are down three on 37, and the comrades and the LibDems are up three and two points [...]</p>
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		<title>By: john t t</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136/comment-page-2#comment-362264</link>
		<dc:creator>john t t</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2008 15:34:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136#comment-362264</guid>
		<description>Talking of Fraud and Europe&#039;s increasing powers, if that Societe Generale chappie had been forced to use up his annual leave, his handiwork would have been un-covered a lot earlier. He never left his desk. 

Such behaviour should arouse suspicion amongst auditors in any event.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Talking of Fraud and Europe&#8217;s increasing powers, if that Societe Generale chappie had been forced to use up his annual leave, his handiwork would have been un-covered a lot earlier. He never left his desk. </p>
<p>Such behaviour should arouse suspicion amongst auditors in any event.</p>
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		<title>By: john t t</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136/comment-page-2#comment-362242</link>
		<dc:creator>john t t</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2008 14:57:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136#comment-362242</guid>
		<description>including payments to employees who don’t exist. ( thats fraud in my book)

Mine too. Why does that money go through the hands of the 
M(E)P? Why not pay (and tax) the individual direct? The employing Member would still effectively have the status of &quot;manager&quot; of the PA, still choosing who works, and even what they are paid, but not handling the cash.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>including payments to employees who don’t exist. ( thats fraud in my book)</p>
<p>Mine too. Why does that money go through the hands of the<br />
M(E)P? Why not pay (and tax) the individual direct? The employing Member would still effectively have the status of &#8220;manager&#8221; of the PA, still choosing who works, and even what they are paid, but not handling the cash.</p>
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		<title>By: Colin</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136/comment-page-2#comment-362231</link>
		<dc:creator>Colin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2008 14:37:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136#comment-362231</guid>
		<description>Phil C

It was leaked -which is why we know it exists-but we are unable to know the detail.
MEP Chris Davies ( LIbDEm)-a member of the MSP&#039;s Budget Control Committee -along with all his fellow members was shown the report in a locked room-sworn to secrecy -&amp; unable to take copies.

He went to the Press &amp; told them ( us) that widespread abuse of expenses had been found totalling £100 million pa-including payments to employees who don&#039;t exist. ( thats fraud in my book)

Davies was castigated by his fellow MEPs-A Spanish MEP said &quot;Passing information to the press is a misuse of information and a misuse of parliamentary obligations.”

Don&#039;t look for whiltleblowers from the Court of Auditors-they get sacked by the likes of former Commissioner Kinnock.Look at the cases of Marta Andreasen, Dougal Watt &amp; Paul Van Buitenen-the latter brought about the resignation of the infamous Santer Commission-he still got sacked.

THe EU Accounts have never been ratified by it&#039;s Auditors-Fraud , Financial incompetence &amp; waste are rife. If it was a listed company it would have been de-listed long ago &amp; be  bust by now, with it&#039;s senior management in clink. 

There was more accountability &amp; transparency in The Kremlin than exists in the Institutions of The EU. But anyone who dares to suggest they be more &quot;open&quot; is vilified as Anti Europe/Eurosceptic/Disloyal/Right wing/ etc etc.

Stalin would be proud of the lot of them.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Phil C</p>
<p>It was leaked -which is why we know it exists-but we are unable to know the detail.<br />
MEP Chris Davies ( LIbDEm)-a member of the MSP&#8217;s Budget Control Committee -along with all his fellow members was shown the report in a locked room-sworn to secrecy -&amp; unable to take copies.</p>
<p>He went to the Press &amp; told them ( us) that widespread abuse of expenses had been found totalling £100 million pa-including payments to employees who don&#8217;t exist. ( thats fraud in my book)</p>
<p>Davies was castigated by his fellow MEPs-A Spanish MEP said &#8220;Passing information to the press is a misuse of information and a misuse of parliamentary obligations.”</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t look for whiltleblowers from the Court of Auditors-they get sacked by the likes of former Commissioner Kinnock.Look at the cases of Marta Andreasen, Dougal Watt &amp; Paul Van Buitenen-the latter brought about the resignation of the infamous Santer Commission-he still got sacked.</p>
<p>THe EU Accounts have never been ratified by it&#8217;s Auditors-Fraud , Financial incompetence &amp; waste are rife. If it was a listed company it would have been de-listed long ago &amp; be  bust by now, with it&#8217;s senior management in clink. </p>
<p>There was more accountability &amp; transparency in The Kremlin than exists in the Institutions of The EU. But anyone who dares to suggest they be more &#8220;open&#8221; is vilified as Anti Europe/Eurosceptic/Disloyal/Right wing/ etc etc.</p>
<p>Stalin would be proud of the lot of them.</p>
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		<title>By: Anthony Wells</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136/comment-page-2#comment-362219</link>
		<dc:creator>Anthony Wells</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2008 14:16:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136#comment-362219</guid>
		<description>Stuart - the + or - 3% is the standard margin of error based on a sample of 1,000 (actually it&#039;s 3.1%, but there goes). If a poll has a larger sample size then technically the margin of error is smaller - a poll of 2000 has a margin of error of around + or - 2%.

The figures are based on a genuine random sample, so they are a polite fiction. In reality Ipsos MORI and YouGov don&#039;t use random sampling, and the phone pollsters don&#039;t achieve a genuine random sample because of non-response and non-contact bias (the majority of people they ring don&#039;t end up being interviewed). They were somewhat misleading anyway, since they always implied that sample error was the only source of error, and otherwise polls were accurate when in reality there were all sorts of other potential sources of error.

I can&#039;t speak for pollsters in general, but personally speaking: no, margins of error cannot be that accurately calculated.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stuart &#8211; the + or &#8211; 3% is the standard margin of error based on a sample of 1,000 (actually it&#8217;s 3.1%, but there goes). If a poll has a larger sample size then technically the margin of error is smaller &#8211; a poll of 2000 has a margin of error of around + or &#8211; 2%.</p>
<p>The figures are based on a genuine random sample, so they are a polite fiction. In reality Ipsos MORI and YouGov don&#8217;t use random sampling, and the phone pollsters don&#8217;t achieve a genuine random sample because of non-response and non-contact bias (the majority of people they ring don&#8217;t end up being interviewed). They were somewhat misleading anyway, since they always implied that sample error was the only source of error, and otherwise polls were accurate when in reality there were all sorts of other potential sources of error.</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t speak for pollsters in general, but personally speaking: no, margins of error cannot be that accurately calculated.</p>
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		<title>By: john t t</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136/comment-page-2#comment-362199</link>
		<dc:creator>john t t</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2008 13:21:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136#comment-362199</guid>
		<description>I meant &quot;for NOT leaving MPs to pay for their own lunch&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I meant &#8220;for NOT leaving MPs to pay for their own lunch&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: john t t</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136/comment-page-2#comment-362198</link>
		<dc:creator>john t t</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2008 13:19:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136#comment-362198</guid>
		<description>Colin - Kettle point taken, though I haven&#039;t gone out of my way to go on an obsessive 18 page rant about how glorious the EU is and then added a claim that &quot;we do not seek to pass judgement&quot;. 

Nor did I quote a right-wing think tank poll as though it were carried out by some-one independent.

I still see no analytical reason for leaving MPs to pay for their own lunch out of their own wages. Most in the private sector don&#039;t get subsidised for travelling to and from work.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Colin &#8211; Kettle point taken, though I haven&#8217;t gone out of my way to go on an obsessive 18 page rant about how glorious the EU is and then added a claim that &#8220;we do not seek to pass judgement&#8221;. </p>
<p>Nor did I quote a right-wing think tank poll as though it were carried out by some-one independent.</p>
<p>I still see no analytical reason for leaving MPs to pay for their own lunch out of their own wages. Most in the private sector don&#8217;t get subsidised for travelling to and from work.</p>
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		<title>By: Stuart</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136/comment-page-2#comment-362190</link>
		<dc:creator>Stuart</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2008 12:52:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136#comment-362190</guid>
		<description>Poll used to say that the scores were right + or - 3%. Is that still the case (in which case the numbers are unchanged), or are polls more accurate now? Or, alternatively, do pollsters now accept that the margin of error cannot be so accurately calculated?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Poll used to say that the scores were right + or &#8211; 3%. Is that still the case (in which case the numbers are unchanged), or are polls more accurate now? Or, alternatively, do pollsters now accept that the margin of error cannot be so accurately calculated?</p>
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		<title>By: Mark Senior</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136/comment-page-2#comment-362173</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark Senior</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2008 11:32:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1136#comment-362173</guid>
		<description>The detailed data from this poll is now on the Populus website . 
   Peter Cairns is always interested in the Scottish subsample figures ( smaal though it is ) . Lab 36 SNP 35 LibDem 15 Con 12 Others 2 
   The net changes for those who voted in 2005 
  LibDem to Con net 10 voters to Con
  LibDem to Lab net 13 voters to LD 
  Labour to Con net 26 voters to Con</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The detailed data from this poll is now on the Populus website .<br />
   Peter Cairns is always interested in the Scottish subsample figures ( smaal though it is ) . Lab 36 SNP 35 LibDem 15 Con 12 Others 2<br />
   The net changes for those who voted in 2005<br />
  LibDem to Con net 10 voters to Con<br />
  LibDem to Lab net 13 voters to LD<br />
  Labour to Con net 26 voters to Con</p>
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