…but they’d prefer one on the EU as a whole
The Liberal Democrats have commissioned a poll to defend their policy on the referendum issue. The Ipsos MORI poll found 54% of people supported a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, with 27% opposed.
Asked if people would prefer a referendum on the current EU treaty or membership as a whole, people much prefered a referendum on EU membership (by 38% to 18%, with 10% not wanting a referendum at all, 8% saying they’d like both and 26% don’t know).
Interestingly enough, the least supportive towards the Lib Dem policy were their own voters – they supported a membership referendum over one on just the treaty by only 37% to 30%, and only 49% supported a membership referendum per se, with 42% opposed.
Incidentally, before someone asks it is clear from the crossbreaks provided that a voting intention question was asked. Unfortunately, there are no details of a likelihood of voting question so we cannot extrapolate comparable topline voting intention figures from that. The corssbreak figures work out at Conservative 34%, Labour 44%, Lib Dem 15%, which is within a percentage point of the unfiltered voting intention figures in MORI’s January political monitor.
Well this puts the Tories in a pretty pickle doesn’t it.
The question now is, when the Commons rejects the Tory position and votes to ratify the Lisbon Treaty, what will appear in the Tory Manifesto.
Will then steal another Lib Dems policy perhaps.
G
Asked if people would prefer a referendum on the current EU treaty or membership as a whole, people much prefered a treaty on the referendum as a whole (by 38% to 18%, with 10% not wanting a referendum at all, 8% saying they’d like both and 26% don’t know).
I think you meant “people much prefered a referendum on the EU as a whole”
Whoops – thanks Jono
Oddly the LibDems either didn’t ask or didn’t reveal how people would actually vote if there was a referendum.
The question to ask Clegg would be;
“Would the Libdems insist on an EU referendum as a condition to supporting a minority Government if there was a huge Parliament?”
To be honest this isn’t much of a survey as we all know that almost invariably if you ask the public if they want a vote on something they will say yes.
If and it may be when The Sun commissions a proper poll on a referendum on the death penalty I’d be pretty sure that a majority will support a vote on it.”
Peter.
I’m just waiting to hear a cohesive policy on what we do if there is a referendum on the EU and we decide to leave. Referenda with no good options are dangerous…..
I suspect that the Libdems didn’t publish the details of the outcome of a referendum becuase they know it won’t happen, they are simply using it to divert attention from a potentially damaging row around the Lisbon treaty.
“The corssbreak figures work out at Conservative 34%, Labour 44%, Lib Dem 15%, which is within a percentage point of the unfiltered voting intention figures in MORI’s January political monitor.”
Ten point Labour lead?
Ian R – yep, that’s the lead the unfiltered MORI figures showed last month too, their filter on likelihood to vote can make a drastic difference to their final published figures.
Anthony
Thanks for confirming this. Fits with what I have been finding in canvassing for some time – there is no great movement towards the Tories, but in the absence of an imminent election they are still vehement they will vote whereas others (Labour in particular) are less definite.
It may just be me, but one is sure that there has been a spike in a certain type of advertising recently? In particular the amount of government propaganda is at a level not seen since early 2005 (i.e. in the run-up to the last GE). [This was considered to be against election rules but, hey, the government do net expect to be treated like mere mortals...!]
In light of the raw data presented here, and the comments of Ian R, maybe nEU-Labour are preparing for a June election? This may be based upon the polling information of MORI (which one is surprised at), or the need to get it out of the way before the economy tips into recession.
Hopefully an election will occur this year. Unlike Ian one thinks the general consensus is that nEU-Labour are as popular as the Australian cricket-team. Go India!
Fluffy Thoughts
Election this year? Strange government advertising conspiracy??
Yes, and aliens have landed on the roof of parliament asking to be taken to our leader! (Not that nice Mr C, though)
Yes, and aliens have landed on the roof of parliament asking to be taken to our leader! (Not that nice Mr C, though)
JohnH, sorry but according to the Lords they are getting through the fence at Calais!