(For all polls on the London mayoral election go here)

After waiting months for a proper poll on the London mayoral election, two come along at once (I’ve resisted a bendy bus metaphor!). Firstly there is a new YouGov poll for London Tonight, and unlike the January YouGov poll with the sorry sample of under 400, this one has a respectable sample size of 1,000.

The topline figures, with changes from the last decent sized YouGov poll back in December, are JOHNSON 44%(-1), LIVINGSTONE 39%(-5), PADDICK 12%(+5).

While that’s good news for Boris, Ken Livingstone has hit back by releasing some of the Labour party’s private polling for the campaign by Ipsos MORI. Their polling has topline figures of Ken 37%, Boris 28%, Brian Paddick 14% and Sian Berry 3% taking all those expressing a preference and using only those certain to vote – the filter MORI use for their standing voting intention questions – LIVINGSTONE 38%, JOHNSON 35%, PADDICK 14%. Asked to pick just between Boris and Ken, Livingstone leads by 2 points. Corrected figures for this poll are now here.

Neither of these seem to have been officially released yet, so no news on fieldwork dates and so on.

UPDATE: On Livingstone’s website he is busy dismissing ICM’s recent survey for Porsche on the congestion charge by – with quite unbelievable chutzpah – referring to TfL’s “mystery poll”. Here’s the difference, whatever the sample size of the ICM poll, the full question order and wording are visible for all to see and judge if the questions are fair and just…

UPDATE 2: The YouGov poll was conducted between the 19th and 21st February. No news of when the MORI poll was done – they are working out exactly what data has entered the public domain before releasing the relevant tables.

UPDATE 3: And the MORI fieldwork was done between the 8th-12th of February, so about a week and a half earlier. In between the two polls Lee Jasper was suspended by Ken Livingstone, which did result in some negative publicity and could have damaged his ratings – though it is equally as likely that the difference between the two polls is down to the very different methodologies used, or simple random variation between different samples.


18 Responses to “Rival polls on the Mayoral Election”

  1. The most important thing for Boris’ campaign is *TURNOUT*.

    Very few voters will switch straight from Ken to Boris.

  2. Livingstone needs to start communicating to Green, Respect and Lib Dem voters that if they don’t back him, they’ll get Boris Johnson.

  3. Ken’s problem is getting his vote out. The lack of enthusiasm of London’s Labour MPs is quite startling.

    Boris will have a keen (and from the look of it, better-oiled than many of us expected) machine. I expect a far higher poll in outer than inner London – indeed, Boris could well win whilst carry fewer than half of the boroughs.

    And if the BNP win seats in the list section of the Assembly, expect some Tory circles to call for it to be elected on a FPTP basis only.

  4. London’s got a Mayor…. I’ll have to start watching the UK news.

    Peter.

  5. Will MORI mind Livingstone releasing private polling data like this?

  6. Please tell us your joking Peter . . .

    Good to hear a poll on this subject, now its difficult to know given its the only proper one this year whether this is an improvement for Boris (albeit one were his rating didn’t actually improve) or whether this is an outlier of some sorts.

    Any idea if/when we’ll start having regular polls on this subject? What happened last time? And can you please provide a link on the left for the subject if it is regular in the lead-up to May.

  7. I think Green, Respect and Lib Dem voters might not be impressed with limiting their choices to Boris or Ken. Probably why they are supporting someone else.

  8. A lot of Green voters will back Ken on the first vote. Thus, he’s not likely to pick up many Green second preferences.

    Other than that, well, it’s neck and neck, and no walkover for Ken, as I have been arguing for some time.

  9. GIN – Yep, there will be no problem on that front, MORI have confirmed it’s coming out.

  10. It may come as a surprise to those who a net-subsidised in the UK (i.e. those north of the Watford Gap) but Londoners seem fed-up with Ken and his acolytes. Even those who have once voted for him!

    By the way Peter, who is the Mayor for the borough of Scotland…? ;)

  11. Fluffy,

    It’s spelt Burgh……

    Peter.

  12. Sorry. Completely O/T

    Peter
    You may have already seen this article in the FT, but if not I thought might be of a some interest to you. Can’t say I had seen the Kosovo/Scotland/EU connection.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a4756a3c-e472-11dc-a495-0000779fd2ac.html

  13. Sally,

    I don’t buy it.

    Firstly Scottish nationalism isn’t ethnic it’s civic, anyone who wants to make Scotland there home can be a Scot.

    Second, unlike Kosovo would have the blessing of the UK. We would only be independent after a fair referendum and all main UK parties have said they would abide by that, England isn’t Serbia.

    Three, Independence without bloodshed or the threat of it makes a big difference, unlike the Basques, Northern Ireland or North turkey the situation has neither been exasperated or created by force.

    Peter.

  14. I think Ken will do disastrously in the outer London boroughs, while doing relatively well in inner London. It’ll be close, and I’m expecting a lot of recounts to take place on May 1st/2nd; I hope they’re not going to use the same counting machines that made such a mess of it in 2000.

  15. Andy,

    What the crap counting machines you sent up her last year……

    Peter.

  16. Not sure whether they were the same kind of machines. If they were, that would be a bit of an own goal by the Scottish authorities!

    I remember just before the 2000 London election, there was great fanfare about the new machines being used to count the votes. In the end, there were so many problems with them that the result was declared many hours later than expected; I can’t recall the exact time, but I certainly can remember being extremely tired after staying up all night waiting for the results to come through, which weren’t all that interesting in the end, unfortunately.

  17. @jeff – “Livingstone needs to start communicating to Green, Respect and Lib Dem voters that if they don’t back him, they’ll get Boris Johnson.”

    Not true. Under STV, Green, Respect and LibDem voters can still put their own candidate first and Ken second. That way they give their own candidate the best chance they can, but also do their bit to help keep out anyone they really don’t want. That’s the beauty of the system and the reason it needs to be rolled out to general elections.

  18. “What the crap counting machines you sent up her last year……”

    i think the councillor may need to grow up a bit, statements like this show he is actually not a particularly effective arguer or orator.