Comments on: ComRes give Tories 11 point lead http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1124 Opinion polling and political analysis Sat, 11 Feb 2012 20:49:12 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: JohnH http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1124/comment-page-1#comment-355510 JohnH Sat, 01 Mar 2008 00:15:59 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1124#comment-355510 Yes Stuart - probably about as much damage to the government as the earthquake did :) Let's be reasonable; with many hundreds of thousands of employees who are lumped together as working for "the government", and many only remotely connected to the civil service, it is impossible to hold ministers responsible for all shortcomings. The blame in almost all such cases lies with the individuals concerned - or with managers of the particular organisation. This sort of story is dead in the water unless it is very clear that it is due to ministerial incompetence. It's about time we had another poll to chew over! Yes Stuart – probably about as much damage to the government as the earthquake did :)

Let’s be reasonable; with many hundreds of thousands of employees who are lumped together as working for “the government”, and many only remotely connected to the civil service, it is impossible to hold ministers responsible for all shortcomings. The blame in almost all such cases lies with the individuals concerned – or with managers of the particular organisation. This sort of story is dead in the water unless it is very clear that it is due to ministerial incompetence.

It’s about time we had another poll to chew over!

]]> By: stuart gregory http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1124/comment-page-1#comment-355238 stuart gregory Fri, 29 Feb 2008 12:49:55 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1124#comment-355238 JOHN H- it's a few days later now after the tremor but it seamed like it was more powerfull where you live, but all the results are in i was in one of the worst affected areas in your area the tremor was 3.0 hear it was 4-4.5 bgs reedings on other news the bbc & sky news reported yesterday that the govenment has lost another disc it was found after being sold on e-bay as a laptop a computer shop found the disc in the back of the computer hiden away, so far as reports say it's conferdental information ( more damage to the govenment) JOHN H- it’s a few days later now after the tremor but it seamed like it was more powerfull where you live, but all the results are in i was in one of the worst affected areas in your area the tremor was 3.0 hear it was 4-4.5 bgs reedings

on other news the bbc & sky news reported yesterday that the govenment has lost another disc it was found after being sold on e-bay as a laptop a computer shop found the disc in the back of the computer hiden away, so far as reports say it’s conferdental information ( more damage to the govenment)

]]> By: JohnH http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1124/comment-page-1#comment-354478 JohnH Wed, 27 Feb 2008 21:37:22 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1124#comment-354478 Anthony: thanks for the info above - even though, (like much comment and analysis here), it seems to be peering "through a glass darkly". Stuart Gregory: I must admit I was more shaken by the earthquake (which left a couple of pictures on the wall swinging, and me rather bewildered) than by the ComRes poll results! Anthony: thanks for the info above – even though, (like much comment and analysis here), it seems to be peering “through a glass darkly”.

Stuart Gregory: I must admit I was more shaken by the earthquake (which left a couple of pictures on the wall swinging, and me rather bewildered) than by the ComRes poll results!

]]> By: stuart gregory http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1124/comment-page-1#comment-354409 stuart gregory Wed, 27 Feb 2008 19:21:38 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1124#comment-354409 john H yes an actual earthquake i now know it to have been a 5.2 on the scale of earthquackes, but back to the point this poll is bad news for labour but only OK news for the conservative as most of the vote has come from floting voters and the smaller parties labours vote is stable for now so some good news LD vote has also not moved, i think they need the earth to move for them soon or it could be curtains for NC, no damage hear from last night earth moving only moderate 3 or 4 john H yes an actual earthquake i now know it to have been a 5.2 on the scale of earthquackes, but back to the point this poll is bad news for labour but only OK news for the conservative as most of the vote has come from floting voters and the smaller parties labours vote is stable for now so some good news LD vote has also not moved, i think they need the earth to move for them soon or it could be curtains for NC,

no damage hear from last night earth moving only moderate 3 or 4

]]> By: Anthony Wells http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1124/comment-page-1#comment-354324 Anthony Wells Wed, 27 Feb 2008 16:39:02 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1124#comment-354324 John - here's the final figures from the last election: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/press.html As you'll see, it's fair to say they aren't much help in separating the sheep from the goats :) It doesn't actually give you a very good idea of relative accuracy anyway - obviously you can spot if someone has completely fluffed it, but if everyone is close it doesn't tell you much at all. There is a margin of error of 2-3% points, regardless of how accurate a pollster is, and beneath that noise it is difficult to pick out the signal. In theory you could have a pollster with <i>perfect</i> accuracy, who through normal sample error gives a result that is, say, 2% too high for the Tories and have a pollster that is consistently 2% too high for Labour that happens, through sample error, to get the answer apparently spot on. When all polls have a margin of error of a couple of percent, it's not really fair to judge them on one poll every five years (though the pollster who does get closest is, invariably, very smug about it :) ). Besides, pollsters do intend tend to alter their methodologies in response to the lessons they learn from elections. John – here’s the final figures from the last election: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/press.html
As you’ll see, it’s fair to say they aren’t much help in separating the sheep from the goats :)

It doesn’t actually give you a very good idea of relative accuracy anyway – obviously you can spot if someone has completely fluffed it, but if everyone is close it doesn’t tell you much at all. There is a margin of error of 2-3% points, regardless of how accurate a pollster is, and beneath that noise it is difficult to pick out the signal. In theory you could have a pollster with perfect accuracy, who through normal sample error gives a result that is, say, 2% too high for the Tories and have a pollster that is consistently 2% too high for Labour that happens, through sample error, to get the answer apparently spot on.

When all polls have a margin of error of a couple of percent, it’s not really fair to judge them on one poll every five years (though the pollster who does get closest is, invariably, very smug about it :) ). Besides, pollsters do intend tend to alter their methodologies in response to the lessons they learn from elections.

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