Comments on: YouGov – Livingstone apparently undamaged by Dispatches

By: Beware the promise of small polls | News in brief

Beware the promise of small polls | News in brief — Tue, 29 Jan 2008 17:37:23 +0000

[...] coverage of UK PoliticsAs Anthony points out at UK Polling Report, the latest polling giving Ken Livingstone a slightly stretched lead over Tory rival Boris Johnson, [...]

By: wolf

wolf — Tue, 29 Jan 2008 11:10:41 +0000

Having read the article in the Independent today it’s remarkable that Labour are predicted to win so many more seats than the Tories with only 30% of the poll.

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 22:45:22 +0000

Mike – my guess is that, as Mark Senior suggests, the column headings have buggered up. I suspect two of the other columns are actually the male and female figures.

By: Mike Smithson

Mike Smithson — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 22:22:09 +0000

Anthony – Bob Sykes has posted this on Politicalbetting. Any thoughts…?

“If Boris has 42% of men and 41% of women, how come his “All” vote is only 40%?

How does that work?

I see Ken has 42% of women and 45% of men, yet despite there being more women in the poll than men, his average comes out at 44%.”

My immediate reaction was rounding but I cannot make that work.

By: David Boothroyd

David Boothroyd — Sun, 27 Jan 2008 12:11:26 +0000

The version of the poll showing Norris only 2% behind was the one which got all the publicity in 2004, partly because it made the election look wide open, partly because it fitted with the newspaper’s preferences and partly because at the time the national election polls were generally quoting ‘certain to vote’ only in the belief that they were more accurate. So the comparison is very explicable.

By: Mike Richardson

Mike Richardson — Sun, 27 Jan 2008 03:51:29 +0000

Okay – time for me to give one of my accurate predictions – this time for London (not long to go on this one).

Ken Livingstone is dying in the water i’m afraid – he now only has the grass roots backing of hard line Labour & Socialist groups & large inner city immigrant communities .

My prediction – a very close race (the Tories will win by a whisker) , just like the national picture – Londoners want change & this will be a straight fight between Conservative & Labour – the minor parties like the Liberals will be lost in the dust of the fight .

By: Joe James Broughton

Joe James Broughton — Sat, 26 Jan 2008 23:51:30 +0000

Peter Cairns – I’m not fed up with Scotland atall – I will ask you some more questions about it in due course.

Although I’m a Tory, and a strong supporter of the union (although in favour of the Scottish Parliament), I do actually think the Salmond regime (provided it never gets it’s main policy through) is a breath of fresh air.

London Mayor election – I’m pretty certain this is going to be close.

By: Philip Thompson

Philip Thompson — Sat, 26 Jan 2008 22:43:36 +0000

Mark, a change of two is within the margin of error and 41 is entirely consistent with the last couple of months polls, being above the YouGov/Sunday Times poll of 27/12 and identical to 4 polls in October/November.

By: JohnH

JohnH — Sat, 26 Jan 2008 15:48:54 +0000

In view of the rather virulent media comment on both Brown and Livingstone, any sign of even a holding of Labour’s support is significant.

It is going to be a marathon, rather than a sprint, for Brown/Cameron – and, even after a run of (partly self-inflicted) bad luck, there seem to be few signs yet that the race is over.

By: Alec

Alec — Sat, 26 Jan 2008 14:34:04 +0000

An interesting set of polls. On the London poll, I’m not altogether surprised that Ken is up. Over the years he’s always managed to ride through press attacks by arguing that he is using every means to represent Londoners – these attacks are awesomely minor compared to what went on at the time of the old GLC. My impression is that the current anti Ken campaign is a little rabid, with not much of real concern behind it, and that it might end up being counter productive for his detractors. Interesting also that Boris has caused a stir this weekend by accepting help from an investment firm that Ken turned down in 2004 citing potential conflict of interest.

The two national polls also raise issues – was the post Christmas boost for the Tories a blip, with the earlier narrowing of the lead the real underlying state of play? The Tories still lead, but the LD’s are moving, but the recent news hasn’t been good for Brown again yet their poll position has improved, albeit marginally. I still feel that the Tory position is fragile – I’m not at all sure that enough voters have really bought into Cameron’s Tories, and while Labour is not popular either there is a position for Clegg to capture. Ken Clarke rather hits the nail on the head in an interview out tomorrow by arguing Cameron needs to play a long game rather than go for quick, easy hits. This is probably why he has not really managed to capitalised on the Northern Rock issue as they have failed to take a position and clearly hold it, whereas the LDs, right or wrong, have been much more stable and credible. This is always an issue for oppositions, but particularly so with Cameron as he will always be vulnerable to the ‘Chameleon’ tag.