If it could be managed there are strong arguments for an Inverness seat and it will happen in time due to the expansion along the A96 corridor.

Oddly enough although I wouldn’t be that keen on it personally given the amount of commuting from Easter Ross towns like dingwall and the Black Isle should perhaps also be in it.

Peter.

this makes no sense as the key towns for the Black isle Inverness, Beauly and principally Dingwall and not the north. It’s particularly annoying as the three Island constituencies will be left much as they are even though they all together are little better than one mainland one.

Peter.

When final recommendations come out I expect I’ll do figures (though I’ll have to ponder how to deal with the new local authority election system) but I doubt anyone will do proper projections (as opposed to rough estimates) until then.

Greens

Greens did worse than expected in May for the arithmetical reasons you gave but also “Alex Salmond for First Minister” which won’t happen again. That should take some votes from SNP.

Argyll and Bute

SNP took it off ScotLibDems in May. Why should you expect a Tory gain? They were second last time but their proportion of the vote fell. It is more likely that 2nd and 3rd change places.

Conservative gains

If they gain one seat they should be satisfied. Their core support is ageing.

Referendum

“Scotland will be independent when people vote for it” – Donald Dewar

If the majority want it, the vote cannot be long denied.

SNP Government

There is no doubt that the record of the SNP government will be a big factor. They are doing incredibly well because they are pragmatic rather than doctrinaire and I think support will continue to grow mostly at the expense of Labour (because they have more votes to lose) but because of the large majorities in the West it isn’t going to be proportionately reflected in seats.

Donald Dewar wanted a Home Rule Parliament to be a model for the reform of Westminster. If people see a parliament based on his four principles working well, what will they think of Tweedledum and Tweedledee sitting two sword’s lengths apart?

Independence

I can see Rothesay bay from my window. The waves don’t show whether the tide is going in or out.

Sea levels are rising from global warming and that long term issue is more important than spring tides. I expect to see independence in my lifetime, though I don’t particularly want it. It won’t be the SNP that brigs it about. It will be the ineptitude of a Westminster Government.

If you can agree with that, you surely don’t expect to wait too long?

Just relax. It’s time.

Wales is an issue, but you should be able to work it out by adding the regional Tory figure from any YouGov poll and the sample should be fairly big.

Peter.