Earlier in the week there was apparently a new YouGov poll of Scottish voting intentions in the Scottish Daily Express. The topline voting intention figures, with changes from the last YouGov poll, are – for the constituency vote – CON 14%(+2), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 14%(+1), SNP 38%(-2) and for the regional vote, CON 13%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 12%(-1), SNP 30%(-4).

Not having seen the actual tables yet I assuming that the figures are comparable, though as we’ve seen in the past, YouGov have sometimes asked about Scottish voting intention in different ways depending on whether smaller parties are prompted for the in question, so we can’t be certain. If they are the picture appears to be largely static, with the SNP just beginning to fall slightly.

Other questions in the poll found support for independence stood at 27% in a question that also offered the current Scottish Parliament as an option (chosen by 57%). In the past questions that offer the Scottish Parliament as an alternative normally show a lower level of support for independence than ones which ask a straight yes or no question. Finally 45% of respondents thought Scotland should become a republic were it to become independence, 39% would rather retain the Queen as Head of State.


93 Responses to “Latest Scottish Voting Intention”

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  1. I won’t either because we’ve been told not to – but I think Nick Keene’s last post was fair and balanced.
    (January 18th, 2008 at 6:59 pm )

    I was wondering if Peter Cairns could give
    a rough % vote prediction for how these Scottish seats would go in a Westminster election –

    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Dunbartonshire East
    Gordon

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  2. any body interested in scotland and the snp should look at quebec.so far it is almost identical.a protest vote goes to the ruling party goes to quebeqou,the snp equivalent.poll for independence drops,as the vote is not for independence,it is for change.people get tired of quebeqou,they lose and drop back to third.
    to the snp’s credit and they have some good freemarket thinkers,they will not reduce taxes,dependency,crime etc,so will have great difficulty convincing a country where only 177,000 people postively pay tax that their hand outs are safe.

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  3. Peter,

    Along with RDL and JJB, I too would be interested to hear your views on likely Tory gains in Scotland.

    My own view (oft posted in various points on this site) is that Tories should gain Dumfries & Galloway from Lab and Berwick + Roxburgh from LDs.

    Other gains are harder to predict since it depends more on relative performance of Lab / LD and SNP. I can see three potential areas for additional gains:

    (a) Seats from Lab if overall Con vote is high and Lab vote is low:
    These would be East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh SW and Stirling. Edinburgh S may also go blue but that depends more on LD support dropping.

    (b) Seats currently held by LDs (incl B&R):
    Most LD seats in Scotland were won from Tories at some stage in the past. Some could revert to Tories if LD support falls badly. However, in many cases – in particular Argyll and Gordon – these seats may instead fall to the SNP.

    (c) Seats currently held by SNP.
    Angus & Perth seats most obvious. The problem for the Tories in Scotland is that the region in which they have the most support (NE) is also the SNP’s strongest region, so it is difficult to see any gains here unless the SNP implodes. Sadly, a lot of close seconds has little impact! (As the SDP-Lib alliance may recall from 1983)

    I think that Cameron would be content with three, pleased with five and overwhelmed by anything more.

    Paul H-J

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  4. Firstly for all those under the illusion that I am some kind of expert on Scottish politics, eh Like NO….

    However for what it’s worth i think the modest Tory recovery plus a close run election with a chance of a Tory government could see the best Tory result in a decade or more.

    So I’ll stick my neck out at 20%. That’s potentially either 4% higher or alternatively 20% higher in proportional terms.

    So Lets look at Joe’s three,

    Ochill,

    2005 Results:
    Labour: 14645 (31.4%)
    SNP: 13957 (29.9%)
    Conservative: 10021 (21.5%)
    Liberal Democrat: 6218 (13.3%)
    Other: 1856 (4%)
    Majority: 688 (1.5%)

    To win here the Tories need to go up, which they should, Labour to go down which they might, although some may remain loyal in the face of a Tory government, but also for the SNP to fall back which is unlikely.

    LibDems could swing behind the Tories if it looks like a hung parliament but I’d take this as a Labour Hold or SNP gain, but if the SNP and Labour fight each other tooth and nail then conceivably the Tories could sneak it, but It’s unlikely.

    Dumbarton East.

    Liberal Democrat: 19533 (41.8%)
    Labour: 15472 (33.1%)
    Conservative: 7708 (16.5%)
    SNP: 2716 (5.8%)
    Other: 1295 (2.8%)
    Majority: 4061 (8.7%)

    The LibDems will fall back and the Tories recover a probably to over 20%, and the SNP will probably get to closer to 10%, BUt I think the LibDems will either hold it just or it will go back to labour. The Tories could determine the winner but it won’t be them.

    Gordon,

    2005 Results:
    Liberal Democrat: 20008 (45%)
    Labour: 8982 (20.2%)
    Conservative: 7842 (17.6%)
    SNP: 7098 (16%)
    Other: 508 (1.1%)
    Majority: 11026 (24.8%)

    If Malcolm Bruce stands the LibDems will win, it’s as simple as that and given the LibDems poll position there will be huge pressure on him to stay. If It isn’t him I just can’t see anyone beating him. I could see his vote slip to below 40% and the SNP could be second, or indeed the Tories, but no one will get over 25%.

    Others to look at might be; A LibDem fall and Tory revival?

    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
    Argyll & Bute
    Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk

    Or on a labour slump and Tory come back.

    Dumfries and Galloway
    Edinburgh South West
    Renfrewshire East
    Stirling

    But if Libdems switch to labour the watch out David Mundell..

    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale and Tweeddale

    It all depends hugely on the amount of tactical voting and on whether the SNP win in 2007 has at least cracked the mould. That doesn’t mean everyone disillusioned with Labour votes SNP but rather if they decide that it’s okay to vote for someone other than Labour, SNP, Tory, LibDem or anyone else.

    If we see signs of that then even if Labour get 40 seats it will represent the most significant change in Scottish voting in more than 25 years, in some ways similar to the long slide of the Tories north of the border.

    But that might just be wishful thinking on my part. Partly because of my politics and partly because I just don’t think it’s healthy to have one party that dominant for that long… even if it was mine.

    Peter.

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  5. Peter,

    Thank you for your insightful comment.

    FWIW, I think Ochil should be an SNP gain, while Dumbarton E should stay LD – albeit on reduced share – unless they have a real nightmare.

    Re David Mundell, yes he could be vulnerable, but can you really see the LD vote collapsing in favour of Labour here ?

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  6. Paul,

    Yes and no, from a straight stats point of view a Party that sees it’s share of the vote fall from 23% to 14% should take a big hit, but when you look at local factors it doesn’t always work like that. That’s why we should all take uniform swing predictions with a pinch of salt.

    However, as I have said before, you shouldn’t assume that those who vote for you are your supporters. If we look at the 2001 result we see a very different picture.

    2001 Result
    Conservative: 11996 (28.2%)
    Labour: 20830 (48.9%)
    Liberal Democrat: 4955 (11.6%)
    SNP: 4103 (9.6%)
    Other: 702 (1.6%)
    Majority: 8834 (20.7%)

    2005 Results:
    Conservative: 16141 (36.2%)
    Labour: 14403 (32.3%)
    Liberal Democrat: 9046 (20.3%)
    SNP: 4075 (9.1%)
    Other: 951 (2.1%)
    Majority: 1738 (3.9%)

    Tories up 8%, LibDems up 9%, Labour Down 16%!!!! SNP static.
    I think the Labour drop is pretty much the Iraq factor and if they get 10% back with the LibDems in the doldrums then it’s a real possibility of a gain. And if it’s Brown v Cameron for PM the LibDems will get squeezed here.

    Peter.

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  7. As there are no new polls at the moment, I thought I’d comment on the latter part of the Scotland survey that shows percentages for and against Independence.

    Of the 57% for the current system, 40% have always opposed independence 10% in the last five years (3% in the last year) and 8% don’t know.

    For the 27% currently supporting full independence, it’s 13% always have supported and 14% in the last five years (5% in the last year) with 1% not sure.

    To be honest I am not sure what to make of it, if I was going for Propaganda I would say that in the last five years the percentage supporting Independence has doubled…, but You cold equally say that when you look at the number who have changed their views is only 145 to 10% just a 4% swing.

    The 45% to 39% for republic over Monarchy isn’t surprising, nor is the most favoured option for the head of state not being a politician.

    Oddly enough I remember discussing these options with friends most of whom are in the SNP and although the top politician of choice was Alex Salmond a lot of people were attracted to a non politician.

    Brown was thought more suitable than Blair by a long shot, but given that he has spent decades rubbishing Independence people didn’t think it would work.

    So that got us on to male or female and the question of do they need to be a born Scot, the “Schwarzenegger” question. The verdict was, it needn’t be a man and that a women was probably a good idea, and that if they were a “New” Scot that was fine too.

    So having told you all that and given you some clues, who do you think people thought would be an ideal candidate.

    Peter.

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  8. Peter Cairns (SNP),

    As you have asked, Baroness Thatcher. That should redress the imbalance of the last eleven years.

    As this might just be objectionable to a slight majority in your oversea-nation, then maybe the past/future wife of President Sarkozy…? Relight the “Auld Alliance” and prepare for a rematch at Flodden will be more acceptable to you and your fellow Scots.

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  9. Peter,

    In glorious Norway, they deliberated over this self-same question around the time of their independence: monarchy, or republic? As I’m sure we all know, the monarchists won, but the monarchy was changed into something different to what had come before. They called it a “national monarchy”.

    Under a national monarchy, the Crown and his family are a national treasure, and are something which the nation as a whole “own” as part of their heritage, just like the Ring of Brodgar, the Stone of Destiny, Stirling Castle, or a North East Broch. All of these things are part of our history, and so is being a kingdom. Under a national monarchy, we would have this link to our past, this special treasure, while at the same time having a supreme and sovereign parliament. A true figure-head monarchy.

    This notion of a national monarchy was thought to be such a good idea in some quarters, that the Swedes decided that their monarchy should follow suit.

    If it had to be a non-politician, and couldn’t be (say) Prince Edward (by far the least objectionable royal), then I would put forward Ronnie Brown. Scotland is quite special in that the original performer of our national anthem is still alive. When I Ronnie Brown lead the national anthem at the Scotland-Italy match, I got a real sense of history when I heard Ronnie Brown singing, and singing with such passion. I think he would make a marvellous ambassador for Scotland, and the most enthusiastic of Presidents.

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  10. How on earth the pro’s and con’s of the Liberals got into a heated debate on here is mind boggling !!

    The POLLS wherever they are taken at the moment and for the forseeable future – whether it be in England , Scotland or Wales show a marked and sustained agreement that it is time for change !

    The old way of using the Liberals or the SNP for a protest vote are not in peoples minds – they know that the only way to break the back of this government is a straight Labour / Conservative fight – votes cannot be lost to small parties like the Liberals and SNP to achieve change .

    PETER CAIRNS :-

    You appear to be a very likeable bloke with an open view – but i would have to disagree with you on the growth of the SNP – they were used as a protest vote against Labour at the last Holyrood elections – that will not be applicable at the next Westminster elections – your predictions of :-
    Labour 36, SNP 10, LibDem 9, Tory 4 are WAY OUT i am afraid – without a doubt the Tories will achieve at least 11 Scottish seats – the losers will be Labour and the Liberals – the SNP will remain static as they have reached their maximum vote .

    Here speaks the other voice of common sense and reason

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  11. IF ! The Tories came back with a SUBSTANTIAL majority at the next general election and gained the extra support in Scotland i predict – I think we will all see some interesting changes for Scotland and it’s independence aspirations .

    They will be brought back into the fold either gently or kicking and screaming !

    Watch this space .

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  12. Will gunboats be slowly chugging up the Forth at dawn? How thrilling…

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  13. Scotland will bring itself back into the fold –
    it won’t be dragged back anywhere! Indeed, the poll in question shows it is already in the fold, with only 27% of people favouring independence. The Union has to be positive, not negatve!

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  14. Alasdair,

    As I’ve said before the Independence poll is notoriously erratic, sometimes halving or doubling over only a few months. That’s reflected by the fact that “Constitutional” issues rarely gets in to the top ten (if ever) public concerns.

    It’s therefore one of those questions that people will answer if asked but don’t actually have that strong opinions of, other than on the Nationalist side.

    In effect it’s the union side that is soft, although I have no doubt there is a core of Unionists about the same size as the core of nationalists.

    In some respects it mirrors the EU, we will only get a vote when the Government thinks it will get the result it wants, and after a campaign and when it’s top of the agenda people won’t vote in line with current polls today.

    People in Britain are highly critical of the EU and you occasionally get close to majorities to pull out, but I doubt we would every actually get a majority to leave in an actual election.

    I don’t know if Anthony has any details on this, but I suspect that referendums are harder to predict a long way out ( 2 years plus) than elections.

    Peter.

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  15. If Unionists are so convinced that Scots support the Union why do they oppose the independence referendum? Surely a referendum would be their chance to call the SNP’s bluff?

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  16. Because calling someone’s bluff can be a scary thing to do – even if you think you will win!

    Also, it could be very divisive for the country. If it went badly the debate itself could turn nasty. I agree that this is not in itself a reason not to have a referendum, but it is a worry.

    There is also a conern amongst some that we will end up in a Quebec situation, with a new referendum every 15 years.

    I agree with Peter that polls on independence are very erractic. I have seen a whole range of different results..

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  17. I totally support a referendum in Scotland about independence – independence would lose out / the average hard working Scot knows that the Union is the safer bet .They also know that they are part of an island nation that has the same history and peoples – why try to fix something that works .

    The SNP have to realise that everytime there is any type of election in Scotland it is a referendum on independence – the vote of 27% – 30% for them maximum is about it – the silent majority of 70%+ don’t want independence or in most cases a regional government either.

    I think that the SNP should appreciate their generous following of supporters and accept that independence is not on the average Scotmans agenda – use all their weight to fight Labour their true rival for the socialist vote & with good policies (apart from independence) they could become the main party in Scotland .

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  18. ” they could become the main party in Scotland”,

    Look at the Poll Mike, we are the biggest party in Scotland.

    for the constituency vote – CON 14%(+2), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 14%(+1), SNP 38%(-2) and for the regional vote, CON 13%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 12%(-1), SNP 30%(-4).

    Peter.

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  19. Based on the 2007 result, and on how things have been going, my rough Westminster prediction is Lab down a bit in first place, SNP up a lot in second, Tories stable in third and Liberals down a lot in fourth. Nothing in the polls seems to contradict this, so I’ll stick with it for the time being.

    What that means in seats is more difficult, though I would expect some gains for the SNP and for the Tories and losses for Labour and the Liberals.

    But the really interesting question would be Scotland’s reaction to the overall British result. In particular, I believe the British result will affect views on independence, where as Peter rightly points out many Scots seems to have a rather open mind. (Or else how do you interpret the widely varieing figures depending on the exact wording of the question?)

    Now what I would like to see is a what-if poll, e.g. how would you vote on independence under a Labour Westminster government or under a Tory one. It ought not to make any difference, but I think it does…

    Christian

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  20. Christian,

    To widen that a bit, you could also ask.

    Which party would best defend Scotland’s interests, or best serve Scotland (the slightly different wording could change the result, the second would possibly make the Labour/Labour option look more attractive), if there was;

    A Labour Government Lead by Gordon Brown.
    A Conservative Government lead by David Cameron.
    A Hung Parliament after the next Westminster election.

    You could also ask these three options about both Independence, as you suggest, and about gaining more powers for Holyrood.

    From a party and election planning point of view it would be interesting to know what people though as it could well play a part in shaping how people campaign.

    Peter.

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  21. Peter/Mike

    1. Personally I would be all in favour of an immediate referendum on Scottish independence provided that the SNP agree to accept the result-if it goes against them- as binding until at least 2058. Would they Peter?
    2.As for Tory gains at the next general election on sober reflection-it is only breakfast time after all- I find myself more or less in agreement with Peter-I hope for 6/7 but suspect it will be nearer 4.
    3.Because of 2 above I believe a Tory government led by David Cameron particularily if it is a minority administration will attempt to reach an ‘understanding’ with an SNP led by Alex Salmond. The trade off could be an referendum in exchange for an extended honeymoon between the two parliaments. Cameron and Salmond may well hit it off on a personal level. That helps.
    4. If however the UK enters a prolonged recession which (continues) to affect Scottish jobs and living standards with resultant cuts in public expenditure well into a first Cameron term then the SNP will not be able to keep its side of the bargain for fear of being outflanked by Labour.
    5 In the event of the kind of hung parliament which prevents effective government then the SNP could-if it holds roughly the number of seats it held in the 1974/9 parliament-exploit the situation very much to its advantage.
    6 Another Brown government would simply leave things where they are now but in terms of the next Holyrood election play to the advantage of the SNP
    All in all then the SNP may be heading for a win/win/win situation but it depends on how they play their cards. History is full of examples of political parties overreaching themselves when in seemingly powerful positions-which some feel the SNP did in 1979- and given that they are a one man band none of this may come to pass if Alex Salmond should fall victim to some mishap or other.

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  22. Nick,

    No chance on number 1.

    If you think something is wrong, you say so and you try to change it. You can of course change your mind but the idea of a time binding referendum is a non starter.

    It’s a bit like saying if you lose an appeal against a conviction you can’t appeal again for ten years even if you have evidence to prove the conviction unsound.

    Just as by and large legislation isn’t retrospective, no government can pass a law that binds the next one.

    Brown could pass legislation to ban a referendum on Scottish Independence for all time, but he could repeal it tomorrow as could a Cameron government.

    I think the notion that the government should legislate to prevent people peacefully campaigning for things it doesn’t like isn’t the way we want to go…. do you.

    Peter.

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  23. I actually agree with one or two points of NICK KEANE – If as i said earlier the SNP tread carefully and don’t try to frighten the Scottish electorate with talk of independence – they CAN attract more support from the Labour vote & that’s who they should focus on – with good policies – NOT policies that look financially risky by offering all kinds of freebies different to England . This will only give ammunition to unionist parties like the Tories to focus their attention on the current funding to Scotland and autonomy Scotland currently has with it’s budget .

    If i was the SNP – they are in a very lucky position at the moment – they have it all to play for in Scotland while Labour is struggling with the electorate – I would pally up to the other party that is on a roll at the moment !! Stop looking so extreme – take the middle of the road route .

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  24. Mike,

    The Tories in Scotland are in favour of a) Fully autonomy over the Scottish budge, b) More powers for the Holyrood parliament and c) are currently backing the SNP’s budget….. It’s not the SNP that’s doing the cuddling up it’s the Tories.

    In reality your call isn’t so much for the SNP to be nice to the Tories, there is nothing in that for us, what you are really need is for Tories in Scotland to vote SNP as that is the best way to help Cameron.

    Forget the 11 seats nonsense voting SNP will cut Browns majority a lot more than wasting votes on Tories who won’t get elected.

    As to the Freebies, if you look at the things we have done like bridge tolls and even prescription charges ( phased in over three years) they have been financially modest and politically rewarding.

    If England wants these things then all it needs to do is elected a government that offers them. I can’t really take all this anger about the SNP programme seriously, it’s a kid like saying,

    “it’s not fair he bought something I want with his pocket money, I’d like that too, buy me one or make him give it back”.

    You spend you money on what you want, and we spend ours on what we want. If you think we get more than our fair share then elect a government that will take it off us and we’ll see what happens then.

    We’re up for it, neither Brown or Cameron seems to be.

    Peter.

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  25. The Budget vote looks very very close if Press reports are to be believed.

    If SNP fail to get the Budget voted through Peter what will they do?

    What are the rules for calling elections for Holyrood-who can call them & when?

    Colin

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  26. Anthony, the “Comments” button is not working on your new Scottish independence thread.

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  27. Mike
    You actually agree with me? Be careful it could become habit forming!

    Peter
    Just as I thought if you lose the first referendum you will immediately start seeking another and another no doubt hoping to get one held at a time when there are strains between England and Scotland as in the John Major years.We cannot have endless referenda-which burden costwise must fall exclusively on Scottish taxpayers-I don’t suppose for one moment Alex Salmond will allow a second vote on the continuation or abolition of the Scottish Parliament. Mind you what could we do with that great white elephant spoiling the Queen’s view from her front windows? Any ideas folks?

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  28. Colin,

    Under the Scotland Act 1998, extraordinary elections to the Scottish Parliament are called if two-thirds of the total number of MSPs (i.e. 86) support a motion for dissolution, or if the Parliament fails to nominated someone for appointment as First Minister by 28 days following an election. There doesn’t appear to be provision for a Budget Bill failing to be agreed.

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  29. Thanks RDL-interesting.
    Without the Budget presumably the SDP Administration can’t function-whether they have First Minister or not?

    Without Tory support right now that’s where they would be.

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  30. Peter,

    Re your post at 3:24pm today addressed to Mike.

    As I have said elsewhere, Tories will make some gains, but will find it difficult to take seats off the SNP in the NE.

    However, your argument that Tories should vote SNP is mistaken. As we all know from 1997, tactical voting has worked very successfully in Scotland (& Wales). We could well see that happen next time – though this time directed against Labour rather than Conservatives.

    If so, then there are a number of seats where the SNP should be urging its supporters to vote Tory – or even Lib Dem – just as there are others where LD and Tories could vote SNP to deprive Labour. The obvious examples are East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh SW, plus Ayr etc, with Stirling in the peculiar position of possibly resulting in SNP 1st / Con 2nd /Lab 3rd.

    Quite whether it works that way is a moot point – we can only wait and see. On the other hand, in much of the Highlands & Grampian regions Labour are not really in contention, so it comes back to a choice of LD/SNP; Tory/SNP or even Tory/LD.

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  31. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

    The SNP are ahead in the polls, popular, and no one wants an election. So if wendy annabel or Nicol bring down Alex the odds are they will be back in a couple of months with fewer MSP’s than they have now.

    Hardly a good idea from an opposition point of view.

    Nick,

    Governments are free to bring forward whatever bills they want, whether it be a referendum (or not having one on Europe) or returning to extended detention over 28 days.

    If you don’t want the SNP or any other party from bringing forward legislation you don’t like, all you need to do is win an election.

    I don’t see why the rules should be different for us than anyone else. Why shouldn’t a party that fails to get a bill through that was part of it’s manifesto not try again, it is after all what people voted for.

    Peter.

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  32. Peter
    Yes turkeys do sometimes vote for an early Christmas. Memorably highlighted by James Callaghan himself your party did just that in summer 1979 when it sided with the Tories on a no confidence motion in the House of Commons. In the ensuing General Election the SNP were massacred.

    Even under devolved powers don’t you need a bill in Westminster to hold a referendum?

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  33. Nick,

    Yes and No, we can’t hold a binding referendum but we can hold Consultative ones.

    The SNP would be asking the people of Scotland if they wanted us to open Independence negotiations. The referendum doesn’t make us an Independent country it says we want to be one. The hope is that to all intents and purposes it should be the same thing.

    Once the people say yes ( as I’ve said before still a very big if) then the games over, consultative or not. People will argue over the legalities but in a democracy if the majority say yes then yes it is.

    Peter.

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  34. Picking up a point Anthony from another recent blog are you able to say what the Tory lead would be in any given poll for England only ie not Wales or Scotland?

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  35. Nick,

    Wales is an issue, but you should be able to work it out by adding the regional Tory figure from any YouGov poll and the sample should be fairly big.

    Peter.

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  36. Thanks Peter.

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  37. Peter

    Greens

    Greens did worse than expected in May for the arithmetical reasons you gave but also “Alex Salmond for First Minister” which won’t happen again. That should take some votes from SNP.

    Argyll and Bute

    SNP took it off ScotLibDems in May. Why should you expect a Tory gain? They were second last time but their proportion of the vote fell. It is more likely that 2nd and 3rd change places.

    Conservative gains

    If they gain one seat they should be satisfied. Their core support is ageing.

    Referendum

    “Scotland will be independent when people vote for it” – Donald Dewar

    If the majority want it, the vote cannot be long denied.

    SNP Government

    There is no doubt that the record of the SNP government will be a big factor. They are doing incredibly well because they are pragmatic rather than doctrinaire and I think support will continue to grow mostly at the expense of Labour (because they have more votes to lose) but because of the large majorities in the West it isn’t going to be proportionately reflected in seats.

    Donald Dewar wanted a Home Rule Parliament to be a model for the reform of Westminster. If people see a parliament based on his four principles working well, what will they think of Tweedledum and Tweedledee sitting two sword’s lengths apart?

    Independence

    I can see Rothesay bay from my window. The waves don’t show whether the tide is going in or out.

    Sea levels are rising from global warming and that long term issue is more important than spring tides. I expect to see independence in my lifetime, though I don’t particularly want it. It won’t be the SNP that brigs it about. It will be the ineptitude of a Westminster Government.

    If you can agree with that, you surely don’t expect to wait too long?

    Just relax. It’s time.

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  38. Has anyone worked through the implications of the proposed new Scottish constituencies in detail?

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  39. Crikey! Not yet Christian!

    When final recommendations come out I expect I’ll do figures (though I’ll have to ponder how to deal with the new local authority election system) but I doubt anyone will do proper projections (as opposed to rough estimates) until then.

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  40. A few projects can be made with the right information. The new East Renfrewshire (Eastwood minus Barrhead) looses the Labour stronghold of Barrhead. It will be almost certainly notionally Conservative for example

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  41. Up her in he Highlands they are provisionally suggesting moving the “Black Isle” where e I live out of Rossshire (actually the old Ross and Cromarty with Cromarty on the Black isle) in to a northern constituency.

    this makes no sense as the key towns for the Black isle Inverness, Beauly and principally Dingwall and not the north. It’s particularly annoying as the three Island constituencies will be left much as they are even though they all together are little better than one mainland one.

    Peter.

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  42. I don’t think that’ll go through a local inquiry, Peter. I don’t expect the continued division of Inverness will either. While I’m happy that my part of the city is now in with the rest, I’ve written to the BCS urging them to unite the city in one seat, and to move the Black Isle into the West Highland seat.

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  43. RDL,

    If it could be managed there are strong arguments for an Inverness seat and it will happen in time due to the expansion along the A96 corridor.

    Oddly enough although I wouldn’t be that keen on it personally given the amount of commuting from Easter Ross towns like dingwall and the Black Isle should perhaps also be in it.

    Peter.

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