Latest Scottish Voting Intention’,or ‘To Peter, With Love’.
But where is he?
Finally, a SCOTTISH poll instead of two hundred English men, 3 Scots men, 1 Welsh man and a Labrador and he is no where to be seen. This post has been up for hours.
Strange. I do hope he is alright.
OCH AYE PETER!

Maybe the SNP are in crisis talks over that -4%….

27% for Independence [despite the alternatives ie a Tory Gov or more of Gordon Brown] is a bit of an ‘OUCH!’.

I’ve already posted on this elsewhere, before Anthony, so there….

On the actual poll I am not that worried as I thought the previous 40% was way to high, I’ve always had my doubt at anything over about 35%.

The list shows 18% for others which may mean a recovery for the Greens who seem to be still punching above their weight. I’d doubt it was the SSP or Solidarity.

As to the Independence question, as I’ve warned before it’s notoriously volatile and it depends if it’s a multi option or all or nothing poll.

Having said that it’s below 30% which may mean something. We’ve had the Trump thing to deal with and the budget has been getting a bit of a battering with Labour going hard on cuts to vulnerable groups.

Without being to partisan and for information the situation is like this.

As part of a deal to freeze council tax for three years while we introduce Local income Tax (LIT) ( just wait to see the backlash from the grey vote in the shires if that goes through), we have offered Councils a lump sum increase and a reduction in ring fencing.

The ring fencing will be cut from about 25% of the Council grant to about 5%. 20% more of their budgets will be free to be spent as they like, after signing up to an outcome agreement.

In effect we both want to achieve the same things, so we give you the money and you are free to spend it as you like as long as our shared objectives are met.

Labours line is that because much of the freed cash is allocated to vulnerable groups they will lose out. The SNP view is the cash is still there and the objectives are the same, so lets trust Councils to deliver as they are best placed to do so.

In a way we are doing the same for Councils as Westminster does for Holyrood, you get your share of the cash and spend it as you like.

It’s hard to say who’s winning the debate, but if the SNP is down, it might be having an effect, or maybe the honeymoon which has been long and welcome is finally coming to an end.

Having said that you could argue that the a fall in support for Independence and a majority for the status quo could indicate that people think they can get the best of both worlds, a nationalist government fighting for Scotland, without the perceived risk of Independence.

Not really what the SNP want to hear, but it could be what is happening.

Peter.

They seem to be getting a taster of Tory Government right now -in a deal to vote the SNP Budget through.

Meanwhile the three “unionist” parties are pressing ahead with their Constitutional Commission-presumably a demand for more devolved powers within UK will emerge.This Poll seems to suggest that is what people want.

What people want is more power, be it local or national, Scotland or UK.

The Unionists don’t really want to give the parliament more power, Unionist MP’s don’t even want a Scottish parliament.

But as with the first rise of the SNP in the 70’s when we put Independence on the table and it proved popular the other parties had to respond.

It’s like the Hegalian Dialectic; Thesis, Antithesis and Synthesis.

Devolution is the synthesis of two contradictory but forceful positions neither able to win over the other.

What we have now the next phase where the SNP again pushes for Independence this time against devolution and the response looks like being “Devolution Plus”, (or Independence lite).

Not Independence, but still better than now and still heading our way.

Peter.

Anthony re your comment on Political Betiing re Brown v Clegg at PMQs.
I thought GB would go softly for the same tactical reasons. But the competing theory has to be that he can’t afford to. PMQ have not been a success for him. Even those close concede it is not his bag. Indeed, it has probably contributed to some of his image problems.
He could be nice to the new Lib leader, but Nick Clegg can not afford to be nice in return; Ming’s percieved friendship with Gordon and his closeness to Labour is thought to have contributed to his problems. If Gordon can’t best the LIB DEM leader and newby he may be portrayed as pathetic. When he couldn’t tell Ed Stourton on Radio 4 Today that he enjoyed his job, an advisor told Nick Robinson that he had difficulty giving a straight answer because he couldn’t get the potential headlines out of his head. The thought of agreeing with an accusing LibDem and potentially conceeding points, as well as being seen as weak and useless at PMQs will have his head spinning [pardon the pun].

Scottish polls seem to under-estimate Tory support. They did in May 2007, when some better results were achieved.

Joe,

The Tories got 16/14% in 2007. So as they usually score 1 or 2% above that they are probably static or just improving, in line with the national rise but to a far lesser extent.

Peter.

I was encouraged by the results in East Dunbartonshire.
It revealed there is still a decent Conservative vote there from Bearsden and, to some extent, Milngavie, although if it increases significantly it would probably mean the seat is gained by Labour.

I am itching to see YouGov’s detailed datasheets from this poll (still not published 3 days after the Daily Express publication - membership rules of BPC?).

That 18% “Others” number at the regional vote is astounding. If it is nearly all Greens (and it must be as SSP + Solidarity are stone dead and the BNP have never measured over 1-2% in Scotland), then that would push the LDs and Cons into 4th and 4th place respectively on seat numbers, and have pro-independence MSPs desperately close to the magical 65 seats marker (roughly 42 SNP + 19 Greens + Margo).

Also fascinated to see if there was a Westminster voting intention question too.

Roll on the Euros!! The Lib Dems are in deep trouble in that poll. Could quite conceivable lose their sole Scottish MEP to the Greesns. I understand Attwool is standing down and the LD candidate may be Lyons who lost Argyll and Bute to the SNP in May 2007. Two high-profile election defeats would surely kill his career?

typo: should be “push Cons to 5th place”

Stuart , don’t get overexcited with the Greens figure in Yougov’s poll , they were way out with their Greens forecast with their polls last May compared to other pollsters and the actual result . We have discussed this on here before and as Anthony mentions in his intro , it seems to be to do with the way the voting questions are presented . Green support has been falling in England since the local elections last May and I don’t see a reason why Scotland should be any different .

Mark, I am afraid that you have a profound “wishful-thinking” syndrome. The truth is that in terms of voting behaviour, as in so many other aspects of culture and society, Scotland IS often different from England, Ireland, Wales, Germany, USA … and other countries. That is why Scotland is a nation: the whole package of cultural behaviour makes us distinctive.

The Lib Dems are in trouble in Scotland, and probably in England and Wales too. Do not stick your head in the sand

Mark is right - it depends on how YouGov asked about Green support. At the Scottish elections they included them in the main prompt and it over-estimated their support, so if they were included in the main prompt for this survey I’d be a bit cautious. On the other hand, if they weren’t included with in the main prompt and were in with all the others, then it would be a real rise - we’ll have to wait for the tables.

WRT Green support, I think that the Greens just don’t “do” by-elections. Their support has held up well in areas of strength, like Brighton and Stroud, while falling back elsewhere, but they seem to do better in all-out local elections. I’d expect to see the Greens win a few extra seats in the local elections.

I got asked to do this survey. Sadly I forgot to record how they asked the voting questions (re: green points above). But for the Westminster intention it was 4 parties and a “Some other party”. So the 18% might not be discernable. I think the suggestion that the Greens would win 19 seats is rather fanciful. They lost 5 out of 7 in May despite YouGov polls showing them about to make gains.

P.S. When I saw the question along the lines of “Should Alex Salmond be President of Scotland” I thought it might be an SNP survey of extraordinary vanity.

Thanks Malcolm. In that case we have a Westminster voting intention poll to look forward to to!!

Anthony: yes and no. Even if the Grn figure is always a bit dodgy (ie. too high) in YouGov polls a doubling of their support must mean some sort of Grn rise in the real world, although 19 seats is admittedly a bit daft. I would say they would be extremely hard-pushed to get over 10-11 seats except in extraordinary circumstances (eg. that Euro vote about 20 years ago when they got about 15%).

I would be very shocked if the greens got that level of support, as in recent times their vote has collapsed. It seems from the last election more like the SNP sucked up support from all the parties which weren’t labour, tory or libdem.. with some dissaffected labour voters. I think that one shouldn’t underestimate the desire to give labour a kicking in much of Scotland, even if those voting don’t support partition (As I am now choosing to call it )

Stuart - alas, not necessarily. YouGov only have to release the data for questions that are published, beyond that its up to the client what enters the public domain.

In YouGov’s polls for the Sunday Times and the Telegraph they always release all the data (except very occassionally when it’s not a time sensitive story and they want to hold it over to publish the following week), but that’s only because the Telegraph and Sunday Times are kind enough to allow it. Just because a Westminster question was asked doesn’t guarantee it will ever be published.

Stuart , the wishful thinking is in your seeing the demise and annihilation of the LibDems everywhere to satisfy your personal hatred of them .

Unfortunately - from my own narrow party political perspective - there is no evidence whatsoever that the Scottish Green vote has “collapsed”. Indeed it is quite the contrary: their core support of about 5% looks very solid indeed, and will almost certainly be boosted by a significant wee chunk of SNP, Lab and LD floaters (especially LDs). I strongly suspect that the Greens are going to do rather well in the elections coming up in the next 4 years: Euros, then Westminster, then Holyrood, then councils.

Stuart , if what you say is true re the Greens , why did they do so poorly in May losing 5 of their 7 seats although Yougov were showing they would gain 2 or 3 with 9% as opposed to the 4% they actually polled .

Mark, I most certainly do not “hate” the Lib Dems, nor any other mainstream political opponents. I simply disagree with them, strongly, on various key policies.

The difference is that I view Labour, Conservatives and Greens are being largely honourable opponents (perhaps naively?), who on-the-whole act largely in good faith, even though I consider them to be on the wrong track most of the time. However, it is unfortunately my experience, over many years, that the Lib Dems lack the same level of honour, and I thus tend to be a bit sceptical of how much good faith can be granted to them. You lot simply play far too dirty, far too often, for your own good. It is however your loss, not ours.

Stuart , a very sweeping gerneralisation re LibDems not backed uo with a single fact . It is Labour who have had a councillor found guilty of telling lies about her LibDem opponent , Labour who issued a policy document on fighting local elections saying that their opponents should be smeared at every opportunity , LibDems who have been subjected to criminal acts in Watford leading the police to offer a reward for finding the culprits and LibDem councillors in Bristol who were subject to arson attacks on their family home 2 years ago .

Vis a vis the independence question it was worded incredibly negatively as “as a completely separate state outside the United Kingdom” so im surprised it scored as high as 27%. Questions simply need to asked as Scottish Indepndence Yes or No?

The Greens in Scotland like all parties can suffer from the nature of the voting system.

As they only put forward list candidates and each region has approximately 15 MSP’s they need to get about 6-7% of the vote in each region to get an MSP. That means that if they poll 6% across the country the could get non, but if they poll 7% they could get 8.

What happened at Holyrood wasn’t so much a collapse as a dip below a threshold created by the split Constituency/list system.

The real breakthrough for the Greens would beto get beyond 15% and get a dozen or more seats, but I don’t see that happening, although they are capable of 8 or 9% and therefore about 8 MSP’s , one in every electoral region.

Given that these are all list seats it may well be The Tories who suffer most although anyone could be hit, though it’s unlikely to be Labour who dominate FPTP.

Still the tables will be interesting.

Peter.

I think one reason the LibDems can get away with very aggressive tactics at by-elections is because they have the reputation of being a “nice” party and so the electorate take them at face value. If the Tories or Labour tried the same tactics it would almost certainly backfire. David Cameron, of course, is astute enough to realise that it is by being “nice” to the LibDems that he can draw support away from them longer term.

That is probably very true NorthBriton. I will never, ever forget the filthy antics of the Lib dems at the Moray by election in 2006. It took me about 3 weeks to stop laughing at their pathetic 3rd place after all the bar-charts of impending LabDim victory.

They got their comeuppance however, from the electorate. In May 2007 the LapDogs slumped to 4th spot in Moray, on just 11% of the vote; and they are dead and gone in that constituency for a generation. It is their own silly fault. The electorate are not as stupid as Nicol Stephen thinks they are.

Okay, can people stop posting attacks and partisan jibes about the Lib Dems please. Non-partisan discussion remember?

Fine Anthony, but good luck with Mark Senior about. Remember, it was him accusing me of “personal hatred” which kicked that all off. What is that if not a personal attack?

I viewed being accusing of hating the Liberal Democrats as a complement to your good sense - no, more seriously, I’m not singling anyone out or saying who is right or wrong, just drawing a line under it.

Sorry Anthony. You know that I hold your blog here in very high regard. Upon further consideration it may have been wiser not to admit to profound Schadenfreude at the fate of the Liberal Democrats in Moray…

I just wish that it was not so bloomin easy to tamper with that “LibDem” name. It is just so tempting to play with variations on the theme…

The full data is on the Yougov website and include Westminster voting intentions . Figures with change from their last Nov poll are :-
Lab 36 +4
SNP 30 -2
Con 18 -1
LD. 12 N/C
Oth 5 +1

Note Novembers figures added up to 99 and this poll’s to 101 hence the changes do not match .

Compared to 2005 that has the SNP up 12% and the LibDems down 10%.

That is a very good figure for the SNP, although I have to say I would still expect an election result of around 25%.

Peter.

Peter,
What do you think would happen in Scotland in a General Election at present?

% votes seats

Thanks,

Anthony it is very difficult to be non partisan about the LD’s given your obvious political bias in their favour. They do successfully fight dirty and this is a key reason they do extremely well at by-elections and have done reasonably well at GE’s. It is a major factor which influences the polls and should be subject to debate irrespective of your personal views.

Given your earlier objectivity and your skills at interpreting the polls I am sorry to say I feel much less comfortable with your responses to postings and will now look elsewhere hoping to find someone less prejudiced.

Electoral Calculus suggests that even were Labour to just get 36% of the vote, they would still win 40 Scotland seats (-1) while the SNP would win just 10 (+4), the Tories on 18% would get just 2 MPs while the Lib-Dems on just 12% would still keep 7!

Slam,

If you think Anthony is bias, I suggest you get your paranoia checked…

Philip/Joe,

I’d hate to make a prediction right now but if I had to I think of the 59 seats I think Labour will fall below forty and the Tories do better than 2. Also I don’t think the LibDems will do as badly as 7.

So under pressure at this stage I’d project;

Labour 36, SNP 10, LibDem 9, Tory 4.

+/- 2 seats for everyone either way, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the LibDems come ahead of us even if we get twice their vote, that’s FPTP for you.

But that’s a projection based on the situation now continuing, not a prediction of what will actually happen.

Peter.

Thanks Peter, I appreciate those figures/estimates.

Peter,

Any guesses as to which constituencies would change hands to make those figures?

Anthony,

I though YouGov stratifies by past voting behaviour, and as this is on record the overestimating of the Scottish Green prior to the 2007 election should be out of the system now. (unless … Greens are not giving as option for past voting behaviour and/or stratification even of Scottish elections is by past Westminster vote?)

More generally, I am still amazed by the inability of UK polls to produce decent figures for smaller parties compared to, say, polls for German Landtagswahlen. Yes with FPTP its both impossible and academic as smaller parties have few candidates, but surely there can be no excuse for UK PR elections?

Also, in 2007 the Greens did not stand in lists only, they also had a candidate in Glasgow Kelvin where they came third with 12% (beating the Liberals and the Tories). At the next Scottish election expect at least 10-20 Green constituency candidates as at this level they can be reasonably certain to retain many of their deposits – the key determinating factor in the number of Green constituency candidates is available finance (for Westminster too).

Oh, and should responsibility for running the Scottish elections be devolved to Holyrood, I guess the chances are that the deposit would be abolished anyway, in which case the Greens are likely to field a near full field of constituency candidates.

Christian

Mark
I for one certainly do not hate any political party save perhaps the BNP. The Whigs/Liberals/Lib Dems represent a fine political tradition that goes back into the mists of time and I would be sad to see that thread disappear from British political life.We would all be the poorer had the likes of Gladstone and Lloyd George failed to reach 10 Downing Street and I have enormous respect for Paddy Ashdown’s recent efforts in Bosnia etc. Nevertheless many people in other parties who have been involved in politics over the last 40 years have consistantly come across examples of dirty tactics by your party.One of the worst cases of character assassination I can recall goes back thirty odd years and involved the then Tory MP for the Isle of Wight one Peter Woodnutt who was hounded out of his seat and whose health suffered so terribly as a result. His family have never forgiven the then Liberal party for the lies they circulated about him.You mention some alleged-minor- Labour misdemeanours in your post but that party like the Tories the SNP and Plaid Cymru has never stooped to personal attacks and innuendo in the same way. Not remotely.

Nick , you are a card , being found guilty of making false statements about your political opponent , arson attacks on someones home , criminal damage in Watford resulting in the police offering a substantial reward for information on finding the perpretators may be minor misdemeanours in your book but that is I think a reflection on you not on me .

Anthony. Any news of a ComRes poll? Seems overdue.

The LDs do fight dirty - much more than the other parties who are normally well intended.

It affects and changes results.

Therefore it is a valid point to raise in discussing elections.

Sheesh - second warning. I should have though Nick and Mark’s exchange illustrates why I tried to shut it down earlier, it just descends into people throwing examples at each other and claiming your lot are more wicked than my lot. If one party does fight dirtier than others, there is no possible way of accurately quantifying it or judging it (even if you added up convictions for electoral naughtiness, it would only show who got caught the most).

There is broad consensus that the Lib Dems are often the party that is best at campaigning on the ground and turning a local issue to their advantage, but I don’t think there is much to be gained by an argument about whether their methods are dirty or not. (Or am I just saying that because of my obvious bias towards the Lib Dems? LOL!)

Christian - YouGov weights by party ID at the time of the last election, not by past vote (though that actually makes little or no difference in practical terms), but I think it’s too the last Westminster election, not Scottish Parliament (though I could easily be wrong, I’d have to check). The problem - for YouGov at least - has been been whether or not to include minor parties in the prompting by party name, normally YouGov don’t include them - you only get offered smaller parties if you say you aren’t going to vote for the main three (or main four in Scotland and Wales).

Doing that prior to the last Scottish elections was producing a very low level of support for the Greens. Peter Kellner decided it was too low, YouGov was doing it wrong, and switched to including the Greens in the prompt. It resulted in overestimating true Green support. How it should be done to get accurate levels is still open to question.

RDL,

No it’s just an assessment based on taking uniform swing and then adding my “feelings” about how long standing MP’s or tactical voting might have an effect.

As I’ve said elsewhere, with 40% of their vote in the seats they hold ( about a dozen) the Libdems can take a big drop and still hold a lot of seats, and that’s the kind of thing uniform swing isn’t good at picking up. Labour have very few small majorities so they also can survive a big swing.

What I will do is have a look and see what I can come up with and get back to you.

On the LibDems, I work with there councillors on a daily basis and they are a decent bunch of men and women, Indeed as highland councils spokesperson on Post offices I am working with two or three in making the case to keep theirs open.

I may be in the SNP but when it comes to services communities need that gets put to one side.

Having said that when it comes to elections, in more than ten years the only people who have ever removed our street posters are you know who, and I Know they have also done it to Labour and the Tories.

In addition in all but one of the last five elections on the Tuesday before the election when the biggest local paper ( which is in any case anything but pro SNP) comes out there has been an alegation on SNP dirty tricks or even intimidation. This includes police statement saying they will investigate (as they rightly must).

Then the story to be reported as untrue on the Friday when we get the next addition…. the day after the election.

I remember having a conference meeting with the electoral commission when someone from the audience asked when they were going to do something about the libdems. I was amazed by the answer when the EC listed the things they think happen but can’t prove and asked for any information we could give that they could use.

The list included; Mobile printing units that let them exceed the local spending allowance, telling people the polling station has been moved, calls pretending to be from other parties.

Nothing they can prove but all suspected.

Peter.

Peter,

The reason I asked was mainly your total for the Tories. I just cannot see four seats that could realistically go to them. With the exception of Dumfries & Galloway, the only marginals featuring the Conservatives are held by the SNP and I would expect the SNP vote to increase at the next Westminster elections, keeping these seats out of the grasp of the Tories.

This means that, to come near your total, the Tory vote would need to rise by more than the Nationalist vote plus any majority, or the Tories would need to win seats like East Renfrewshire from Labour or Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk from the LDs. While not impossible individually, I cannot see all these things happening.

As I have no wish to test Anthony’s patience any further I will not pursue the subject of dirty tactics and the Lib Dems.

I won’t either because we’ve been told not to - but I think Nick Keene’s last post was fair and balanced.
(January 18th, 2008 at 6:59 pm )

I was wondering if Peter Cairns could give
a rough % vote prediction for how these Scottish seats would go in a Westminster election -

Ochil and South Perthshire
Dunbartonshire East
Gordon

any body interested in scotland and the snp should look at quebec.so far it is almost identical.a protest vote goes to the ruling party goes to quebeqou,the snp equivalent.poll for independence drops,as the vote is not for independence,it is for change.people get tired of quebeqou,they lose and drop back to third.
to the snp’s credit and they have some good freemarket thinkers,they will not reduce taxes,dependency,crime etc,so will have great difficulty convincing a country where only 177,000 people postively pay tax that their hand outs are safe.

Peter,

Along with RDL and JJB, I too would be interested to hear your views on likely Tory gains in Scotland.

My own view (oft posted in various points on this site) is that Tories should gain Dumfries & Galloway from Lab and Berwick + Roxburgh from LDs.

Other gains are harder to predict since it depends more on relative performance of Lab / LD and SNP. I can see three potential areas for additional gains:

(a) Seats from Lab if overall Con vote is high and Lab vote is low:
These would be East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh SW and Stirling. Edinburgh S may also go blue but that depends more on LD support dropping.

(b) Seats currently held by LDs (incl B&R):
Most LD seats in Scotland were won from Tories at some stage in the past. Some could revert to Tories if LD support falls badly. However, in many cases - in particular Argyll and Gordon - these seats may instead fall to the SNP.

(c) Seats currently held by SNP.
Angus & Perth seats most obvious. The problem for the Tories in Scotland is that the region in which they have the most support (NE) is also the SNP’s strongest region, so it is difficult to see any gains here unless the SNP implodes. Sadly, a lot of close seconds has little impact! (As the SDP-Lib alliance may recall from 1983)

I think that Cameron would be content with three, pleased with five and overwhelmed by anything more.

Paul H-J

Firstly for all those under the illusion that I am some kind of expert on Scottish politics, eh Like NO….

However for what it’s worth i think the modest Tory recovery plus a close run election with a chance of a Tory government could see the best Tory result in a decade or more.

So I’ll stick my neck out at 20%. That’s potentially either 4% higher or alternatively 20% higher in proportional terms.

So Lets look at Joe’s three,

Ochill,

2005 Results:
Labour: 14645 (31.4%)
SNP: 13957 (29.9%)
Conservative: 10021 (21.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6218 (13.3%)
Other: 1856 (4%)
Majority: 688 (1.5%)

To win here the Tories need to go up, which they should, Labour to go down which they might, although some may remain loyal in the face of a Tory government, but also for the SNP to fall back which is unlikely.

LibDems could swing behind the Tories if it looks like a hung parliament but I’d take this as a Labour Hold or SNP gain, but if the SNP and Labour fight each other tooth and nail then conceivably the Tories could sneak it, but It’s unlikely.

Dumbarton East.

Liberal Democrat: 19533 (41.8%)
Labour: 15472 (33.1%)
Conservative: 7708 (16.5%)
SNP: 2716 (5.8%)
Other: 1295 (2.8%)
Majority: 4061 (8.7%)

The LibDems will fall back and the Tories recover a probably to over 20%, and the SNP will probably get to closer to 10%, BUt I think the LibDems will either hold it just or it will go back to labour. The Tories could determine the winner but it won’t be them.

Gordon,

2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 20008 (45%)
Labour: 8982 (20.2%)
Conservative: 7842 (17.6%)
SNP: 7098 (16%)
Other: 508 (1.1%)
Majority: 11026 (24.8%)

If Malcolm Bruce stands the LibDems will win, it’s as simple as that and given the LibDems poll position there will be huge pressure on him to stay. If It isn’t him I just can’t see anyone beating him. I could see his vote slip to below 40% and the SNP could be second, or indeed the Tories, but no one will get over 25%.

Others to look at might be; A LibDem fall and Tory revival?

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Argyll & Bute
Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk

Or on a labour slump and Tory come back.

Dumfries and Galloway
Edinburgh South West
Renfrewshire East
Stirling

But if Libdems switch to labour the watch out David Mundell..

Dumfriesshire Clydesdale and Tweeddale

It all depends hugely on the amount of tactical voting and on whether the SNP win in 2007 has at least cracked the mould. That doesn’t mean everyone disillusioned with Labour votes SNP but rather if they decide that it’s okay to vote for someone other than Labour, SNP, Tory, LibDem or anyone else.

If we see signs of that then even if Labour get 40 seats it will represent the most significant change in Scottish voting in more than 25 years, in some ways similar to the long slide of the Tories north of the border.

But that might just be wishful thinking on my part. Partly because of my politics and partly because I just don’t think it’s healthy to have one party that dominant for that long… even if it was mine.

Peter.

Peter,

Thank you for your insightful comment.

FWIW, I think Ochil should be an SNP gain, while Dumbarton E should stay LD - albeit on reduced share - unless they have a real nightmare.

Re David Mundell, yes he could be vulnerable, but can you really see the LD vote collapsing in favour of Labour here ?

Paul,

Yes and no, from a straight stats point of view a Party that sees it’s share of the vote fall from 23% to 14% should take a big hit, but when you look at local factors it doesn’t always work like that. That’s why we should all take uniform swing predictions with a pinch of salt.

However, as I have said before, you shouldn’t assume that those who vote for you are your supporters. If we look at the 2001 result we see a very different picture.

2001 Result
Conservative: 11996 (28.2%)
Labour: 20830 (48.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4955 (11.6%)
SNP: 4103 (9.6%)
Other: 702 (1.6%)
Majority: 8834 (20.7%)

2005 Results:
Conservative: 16141 (36.2%)
Labour: 14403 (32.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9046 (20.3%)
SNP: 4075 (9.1%)
Other: 951 (2.1%)
Majority: 1738 (3.9%)

Tories up 8%, LibDems up 9%, Labour Down 16%!!!! SNP static.
I think the Labour drop is pretty much the Iraq factor and if they get 10% back with the LibDems in the doldrums then it’s a real possibility of a gain. And if it’s Brown v Cameron for PM the LibDems will get squeezed here.

Peter.

As there are no new polls at the moment, I thought I’d comment on the latter part of the Scotland survey that shows percentages for and against Independence.

Of the 57% for the current system, 40% have always opposed independence 10% in the last five years (3% in the last year) and 8% don’t know.

For the 27% currently supporting full independence, it’s 13% always have supported and 14% in the last five years (5% in the last year) with 1% not sure.

To be honest I am not sure what to make of it, if I was going for Propaganda I would say that in the last five years the percentage supporting Independence has doubled…, but You cold equally say that when you look at the number who have changed their views is only 145 to 10% just a 4% swing.

The 45% to 39% for republic over Monarchy isn’t surprising, nor is the most favoured option for the head of state not being a politician.

Oddly enough I remember discussing these options with friends most of whom are in the SNP and although the top politician of choice was Alex Salmond a lot of people were attracted to a non politician.

Brown was thought more suitable than Blair by a long shot, but given that he has spent decades rubbishing Independence people didn’t think it would work.

So that got us on to male or female and the question of do they need to be a born Scot, the “Schwarzenegger” question. The verdict was, it needn’t be a man and that a women was probably a good idea, and that if they were a “New” Scot that was fine too.

So having told you all that and given you some clues, who do you think people thought would be an ideal candidate.

Peter.

Peter Cairns (SNP),

As you have asked, Baroness Thatcher. That should redress the imbalance of the last eleven years.

As this might just be objectionable to a slight majority in your oversea-nation, then maybe the past/future wife of President Sarkozy…? Relight the “Auld Alliance” and prepare for a rematch at Flodden will be more acceptable to you and your fellow Scots.

Peter,

In glorious Norway, they deliberated over this self-same question around the time of their independence: monarchy, or republic? As I’m sure we all know, the monarchists won, but the monarchy was changed into something different to what had come before. They called it a “national monarchy”.

Under a national monarchy, the Crown and his family are a national treasure, and are something which the nation as a whole “own” as part of their heritage, just like the Ring of Brodgar, the Stone of Destiny, Stirling Castle, or a North East Broch. All of these things are part of our history, and so is being a kingdom. Under a national monarchy, we would have this link to our past, this special treasure, while at the same time having a supreme and sovereign parliament. A true figure-head monarchy.

This notion of a national monarchy was thought to be such a good idea in some quarters, that the Swedes decided that their monarchy should follow suit.

If it had to be a non-politician, and couldn’t be (say) Prince Edward (by far the least objectionable royal), then I would put forward Ronnie Brown. Scotland is quite special in that the original performer of our national anthem is still alive. When I Ronnie Brown lead the national anthem at the Scotland-Italy match, I got a real sense of history when I heard Ronnie Brown singing, and singing with such passion. I think he would make a marvellous ambassador for Scotland, and the most enthusiastic of Presidents.

How on earth the pro’s and con’s of the Liberals got into a heated debate on here is mind boggling !!

The POLLS wherever they are taken at the moment and for the forseeable future - whether it be in England , Scotland or Wales show a marked and sustained agreement that it is time for change !

The old way of using the Liberals or the SNP for a protest vote are not in peoples minds - they know that the only way to break the back of this government is a straight Labour / Conservative fight - votes cannot be lost to small parties like the Liberals and SNP to achieve change .

PETER CAIRNS :-

You appear to be a very likeable bloke with an open view - but i would have to disagree with you on the growth of the SNP - they were used as a protest vote against Labour at the last Holyrood elections - that will not be applicable at the next Westminster elections - your predictions of :-
Labour 36, SNP 10, LibDem 9, Tory 4 are WAY OUT i am afraid - without a doubt the Tories will achieve at least 11 Scottish seats - the losers will be Labour and the Liberals - the SNP will remain static as they have reached their maximum vote .

Here speaks the other voice of common sense and reason

IF ! The Tories came back with a SUBSTANTIAL majority at the next general election and gained the extra support in Scotland i predict - I think we will all see some interesting changes for Scotland and it’s independence aspirations .

They will be brought back into the fold either gently or kicking and screaming !

Watch this space .

Will gunboats be slowly chugging up the Forth at dawn? How thrilling…

Scotland will bring itself back into the fold -
it won’t be dragged back anywhere! Indeed, the poll in question shows it is already in the fold, with only 27% of people favouring independence. The Union has to be positive, not negatve!

Alasdair,

As I’ve said before the Independence poll is notoriously erratic, sometimes halving or doubling over only a few months. That’s reflected by the fact that “Constitutional” issues rarely gets in to the top ten (if ever) public concerns.

It’s therefore one of those questions that people will answer if asked but don’t actually have that strong opinions of, other than on the Nationalist side.

In effect it’s the union side that is soft, although I have no doubt there is a core of Unionists about the same size as the core of nationalists.

In some respects it mirrors the EU, we will only get a vote when the Government thinks it will get the result it wants, and after a campaign and when it’s top of the agenda people won’t vote in line with current polls today.

People in Britain are highly critical of the EU and you occasionally get close to majorities to pull out, but I doubt we would every actually get a majority to leave in an actual election.

I don’t know if Anthony has any details on this, but I suspect that referendums are harder to predict a long way out ( 2 years plus) than elections.

Peter.

If Unionists are so convinced that Scots support the Union why do they oppose the independence referendum? Surely a referendum would be their chance to call the SNP’s bluff?

Because calling someone’s bluff can be a scary thing to do - even if you think you will win!

Also, it could be very divisive for the country. If it went badly the debate itself could turn nasty. I agree that this is not in itself a reason not to have a referendum, but it is a worry.

There is also a conern amongst some that we will end up in a Quebec situation, with a new referendum every 15 years.

I agree with Peter that polls on independence are very erractic. I have seen a whole range of different results..

I totally support a referendum in Scotland about independence - independence would lose out / the average hard working Scot knows that the Union is the safer bet .They also know that they are part of an island nation that has the same history and peoples - why try to fix something that works .

The SNP have to realise that everytime there is any type of election in Scotland it is a referendum on independence - the vote of 27% - 30% for them maximum is about it - the silent majority of 70%+ don’t want independence or in most cases a regional government either.

I think that the SNP should appreciate their generous following of supporters and accept that independence is not on the average Scotmans agenda - use all their weight to fight Labour their true rival for the socialist vote & with good policies (apart from independence) they could become the main party in Scotland .

” they could become the main party in Scotland”,

Look at the Poll Mike, we are the biggest party in Scotland.

for the constituency vote - CON 14%(+2), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 14%(+1), SNP 38%(-2) and for the regional vote, CON 13%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 12%(-1), SNP 30%(-4).

Peter.

Based on the 2007 result, and on how things have been going, my rough Westminster prediction is Lab down a bit in first place, SNP up a lot in second, Tories stable in third and Liberals down a lot in fourth. Nothing in the polls seems to contradict this, so I’ll stick with it for the time being.

What that means in seats is more difficult, though I would expect some gains for the SNP and for the Tories and losses for Labour and the Liberals.

But the really interesting question would be Scotland’s reaction to the overall British result. In particular, I believe the British result will affect views on independence, where as Peter rightly points out many Scots seems to have a rather open mind. (Or else how do you interpret the widely varieing figures depending on the exact wording of the question?)

Now what I would like to see is a what-if poll, e.g. how would you vote on independence under a Labour Westminster government or under a Tory one. It ought not to make any difference, but I think it does…

Christian

Christian,

To widen that a bit, you could also ask.

Which party would best defend Scotland’s interests, or best serve Scotland (the slightly different wording could change the result, the second would possibly make the Labour/Labour option look more attractive), if there was;

A Labour Government Lead by Gordon Brown.
A Conservative Government lead by David Cameron.
A Hung Parliament after the next Westminster election.

You could also ask these three options about both Independence, as you suggest, and about gaining more powers for Holyrood.

From a party and election planning point of view it would be interesting to know what people though as it could well play a part in shaping how people campaign.

Peter.

Peter/Mike

1. Personally I would be all in favour of an immediate referendum on Scottish independence provided that the SNP agree to accept the result-if it goes against them- as binding until at least 2058. Would they Peter?
2.As for Tory gains at the next general election on sober reflection-it is only breakfast time after all- I find myself more or less in agreement with Peter-I hope for 6/7 but suspect it will be nearer 4.
3.Because of 2 above I believe a Tory government led by David Cameron particularily if it is a minority administration will attempt to reach an ‘understanding’ with an SNP led by Alex Salmond. The trade off could be an referendum in exchange for an extended honeymoon between the two parliaments. Cameron and Salmond may well hit it off on a personal level. That helps.
4. If however the UK enters a prolonged recession which (continues) to affect Scottish jobs and living standards with resultant cuts in public expenditure well into a first Cameron term then the SNP will not be able to keep its side of the bargain for fear of being outflanked by Labour.
5 In the event of the kind of hung parliament which prevents effective government then the SNP could-if it holds roughly the number of seats it held in the 1974/9 parliament-exploit the situation very much to its advantage.
6 Another Brown government would simply leave things where they are now but in terms of the next Holyrood election play to the advantage of the SNP
All in all then the SNP may be heading for a win/win/win situation but it depends on how they play their cards. History is full of examples of political parties overreaching themselves when in seemingly powerful positions-which some feel the SNP did in 1979- and given that they are a one man band none of this may come to pass if Alex Salmond should fall victim to some mishap or other.

Nick,

No chance on number 1.

If you think something is wrong, you say so and you try to change it. You can of course change your mind but the idea of a time binding referendum is a non starter.

It’s a bit like saying if you lose an appeal against a conviction you can’t appeal again for ten years even if you have evidence to prove the conviction unsound.

Just as by and large legislation isn’t retrospective, no government can pass a law that binds the next one.

Brown could pass legislation to ban a referendum on Scottish Independence for all time, but he could repeal it tomorrow as could a Cameron government.

I think the notion that the government should legislate to prevent people peacefully campaigning for things it doesn’t like isn’t the way we want to go…. do you.

Peter.

I actually agree with one or two points of NICK KEANE - If as i said earlier the SNP tread carefully and don’t try to frighten the Scottish electorate with talk of independence - they CAN attract more support from the Labour vote & that’s who they should focus on - with good policies - NOT policies that look financially risky by offering all kinds of freebies different to England . This will only give ammunition to unionist parties like the Tories to focus their attention on the current funding to Scotland and autonomy Scotland currently has with it’s budget .

If i was the SNP - they are in a very lucky position at the moment - they have it all to play for in Scotland while Labour is struggling with the electorate - I would pally up to the other party that is on a roll at the moment !! Stop looking so extreme - take the middle of the road route .

Mike,

The Tories in Scotland are in favour of a) Fully autonomy over the Scottish budge, b) More powers for the Holyrood parliament and c) are currently backing the SNP’s budget….. It’s not the SNP that’s doing the cuddling up it’s the Tories.

In reality your call isn’t so much for the SNP to be nice to the Tories, there is nothing in that for us, what you are really need is for Tories in Scotland to vote SNP as that is the best way to help Cameron.

Forget the 11 seats nonsense voting SNP will cut Browns majority a lot more than wasting votes on Tories who won’t get elected.

As to the Freebies, if you look at the things we have done like bridge tolls and even prescription charges ( phased in over three years) they have been financially modest and politically rewarding.

If England wants these things then all it needs to do is elected a government that offers them. I can’t really take all this anger about the SNP programme seriously, it’s a kid like saying,

“it’s not fair he bought something I want with his pocket money, I’d like that too, buy me one or make him give it back”.

You spend you money on what you want, and we spend ours on what we want. If you think we get more than our fair share then elect a government that will take it off us and we’ll see what happens then.

We’re up for it, neither Brown or Cameron seems to be.

Peter.

The Budget vote looks very very close if Press reports are to be believed.

If SNP fail to get the Budget voted through Peter what will they do?

What are the rules for calling elections for Holyrood-who can call them & when?

Colin

Anthony, the “Comments” button is not working on your new Scottish independence thread.

Mike
You actually agree with me? Be careful it could become habit forming!

Peter
Just as I thought if you lose the first referendum you will immediately start seeking another and another no doubt hoping to get one held at a time when there are strains between England and Scotland as in the John Major years.We cannot have endless referenda-which burden costwise must fall exclusively on Scottish taxpayers-I don’t suppose for one moment Alex Salmond will allow a second vote on the continuation or abolition of the Scottish Parliament. Mind you what could we do with that great white elephant spoiling the Queen’s view from her front windows? Any ideas folks?

Colin,

Under the Scotland Act 1998, extraordinary elections to the Scottish Parliament are called if two-thirds of the total number of MSPs (i.e. 86) support a motion for dissolution, or if the Parliament fails to nominated someone for appointment as First Minister by 28 days following an election. There doesn’t appear to be provision for a Budget Bill failing to be agreed.

Thanks RDL-interesting.
Without the Budget presumably the SDP Administration can’t function-whether they have First Minister or not?

Without Tory support right now that’s where they would be.

Peter,

Re your post at 3:24pm today addressed to Mike.

As I have said elsewhere, Tories will make some gains, but will find it difficult to take seats off the SNP in the NE.

However, your argument that Tories should vote SNP is mistaken. As we all know from 1997, tactical voting has worked very successfully in Scotland (&