Comments on: Tories back to 10 points ahead

By: Lukw

Lukw — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 22:00:07 +0000

The thing I always say in responce to the ‘opposition has to be miles ahead int he mid-term’ argument is that that only applies when the Conservatives are incumbant and Labour in Opposition. There are examples of Labour being streets ahead in oppositions nd still losing- but never the other way around. The Tories in all of the last two elections did better int he election than in the mid term. There has never been a swing back to any incumbant Labour Government in an election which has overcome a Tory lead which was registered in the mid-term. I therefore don’t see how this point holds.

One further thing. Given the still hopeless Tory scores in Scotland, they must be doing proportionatly even better in the rest of the UK by a few %. That might have some impact.

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 10:20:19 +0000

RodCrosby

History.

By: Colin

Colin — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 19:44:25 +0000

Nick-these odds from BestBetting now:-

Date of GE
2008 Best14/1 – Worst 6/1
2009 Best 1/1 – Worst 0.64/1
2010 Best 1.38/1 – Worst 1.1/1

Most Seats
Con Best 0.84/1 – Worst 0.67/1
Lab Best 1.22/1 – Worst 1.00/1

Overall Maj

None 1.75/1
Con 1-25 8/1
Lab 1-25 10/1

By: RodCrosby

RodCrosby — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 17:03:48 +0000

Nick, apart from wishful thinking, what are you basing your probabilities on?

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 08:56:03 +0000

To add a footnote to my last message and with no idea of the latest odds offered by the bookies I would at this stage give the Tories a 30% chance of a majority and (overall) a 60% chance of being the largest party. Those figures may or may not shorten as we get towards 2009 -but that’s for the future.

By: Joe James Broughton

Joe James Broughton — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 23:51:32 +0000

I suspect the economy will avoid a recession (I hope it does) but it will be slow growth, and there will be concerns, and sectors in difficulty.

By: Mark Senior

Mark Senior — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 18:47:36 +0000

Nick , neither Yougov nor Mori show a comparison with how people voted in 2005 although Mori do in some polls . The other 3 pollsters do in every poll and clearly show in all their recent polls nothing like 1/3rd of LibDem voters moving to the Conservatives and an admittedly small number moving in the opposite direction .

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 18:38:29 +0000

Mark Senior
What do you mean by the latest polls? The latest polls were YouGov/ MORI/ICM not Populus or ComRES.
Robert Waller
Where did I suggest that there would be a recession? Nobody knows that one . What I suppose I am suggesting is that a number of factors are combining to reduce if not end the feel good fsctor literally as we speak.At the very least we have a slowdown possibly a slump in prospect and I won’t even dwell on the likes of inflation , public spending, house prices, consumer confidence , public and personal debt. A lot of chickens are coming home to roost and I think-unfortunately for all of us- that it will take longer than 2 years for all of them to get their necks wrung.
Anthony
I am not denying that there is an electoral bias against the Tories but there is nothing new about that.Nor are the predictions that the Tories can’t win as a result-I have heard it all before. Obviously if the opposition in a Labour held seat say with a 5,000 majority like Dover-no 90 on the Tory target list- continues not only to split their votes between a Tory challenger (16700), a third placed Lib Dem(7600) and a fringe party of the right ie UKIP(1,200) and even worse from the Tory point of view with others still voting tactically to keep the Tories out by supporting Labour then the Tories cannot prevail.However it would not surprise me in the least to see the Tories take this seat with a 1,500 majority or more having taken 5.000 votes or so right across the board from all of the above with votes moving in both directions between Labour and Lib Dem.I won’t dwell on turnout for who can predict that? I simply do not accept that it is wishful thinking to suggest that such an outcome cannot be repeated all over the country or that the Tories only have a 15% chance of getting a majority. It’s much better than that although I do agree with Robert on one thing -the Tories still have a considerable part of the mountain to climb but then of course I am sure that somewhere along the line the late Sir E Hillary and the Hon D Cameron must be related…

By: RodCrosby

RodCrosby — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 16:31:36 +0000

I have done an analysis since the last election, based on a 6-poll rolling average and uniform probabilistic swings using Anthony’d notionals. An SNP 15% rise is assumed, together with a calculation of LibDem incumbency based on previous elections where their national vote declined.

For a brief 1 week period in December 2007 the Tories crested to a forecast 15 seat majority, but now appear to have declined again. This was the first occasion since 1992 that a Tory majority of any kind was forecasted..
Con/Lab left hand scale (blue/red lines); LibDem right-hand scale (yellow columns)
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/bigpic.jpg

Some interesting stats… Since May 2005 the “average” forecast is
Con 254
Lab 310
LD 48
Nats 17 (based on +15% poll assumption)
Oth 3
NI 13 (SF abstain)

62% of the time a Hung Parliament has been forecast…
36% of the time a Labour majority….
2% of the time a Tory majority…….

73% of the time Labour was forecast to be ahead of the Tories in seats….
viz
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/seatlead.jpg

The Tories don’t appear to be doing well enough to expect even largest party status at the next election, never mind a majority. A hung-parliament remains odds-on, but we are now past the half-way stage of this parliament, and might expect the balance to start moving back to Labour…

By: Joe James Broughton

Joe James Broughton — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 15:24:31 +0000

I think the Lib Dems might have a tip over point.
If they had just 13%, that would surely be below the point where lots of them would lose on a national swing (down over 9 points nationally).

I doubt they will go as low as 13% though – 17/18% seems a more credible figure. I’d like them to be destroyed – but that’s another matter.