Comments on: Tories back to 10 points ahead

By: Lukw

Lukw — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 22:00:07 +0000

The thing I always say in responce to the ‘opposition has to be miles ahead int he mid-term’ argument is that that only applies when the Conservatives are incumbant and Labour in Opposition. There are examples of Labour being streets ahead in oppositions nd still losing- but never the other way around. The Tories in all of the last two elections did better int he election than in the mid term. There has never been a swing back to any incumbant Labour Government in an election which has overcome a Tory lead which was registered in the mid-term. I therefore don’t see how this point holds.

One further thing. Given the still hopeless Tory scores in Scotland, they must be doing proportionatly even better in the rest of the UK by a few %. That might have some impact.

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 10:20:19 +0000

RodCrosby

History.

By: Colin

Colin — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 19:44:25 +0000

Nick-these odds from BestBetting now:-

Date of GE
2008 Best14/1 – Worst 6/1
2009 Best 1/1 – Worst 0.64/1
2010 Best 1.38/1 – Worst 1.1/1

Most Seats
Con Best 0.84/1 – Worst 0.67/1
Lab Best 1.22/1 – Worst 1.00/1

Overall Maj

None 1.75/1
Con 1-25 8/1
Lab 1-25 10/1

By: RodCrosby

RodCrosby — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 17:03:48 +0000

Nick, apart from wishful thinking, what are you basing your probabilities on?

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Thu, 17 Jan 2008 08:56:03 +0000

To add a footnote to my last message and with no idea of the latest odds offered by the bookies I would at this stage give the Tories a 30% chance of a majority and (overall) a 60% chance of being the largest party. Those figures may or may not shorten as we get towards 2009 -but that’s for the future.