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	<title>Comments on: New Year round-up: Liberal Democrats</title>
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	<description>Opinion polling and political analysis</description>
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		<title>By: john t t</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1095/comment-page-1#comment-322185</link>
		<dc:creator>john t t</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jan 2008 16:24:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&quot;The Lib/Dems should be trying to surpass Labour and become the official opposition&quot;

Sorry to pick, but that would make them the official Government, not the opposition. 

The BBC - I don&#039;t see much difference between their coverage and that of ITN, or C4, Five or Sky or CNN for that matter. They may be partisan,to their discredit, but the main parties will have their rapid-rebuttal units in place to combat double-speak, etc.

The LibDems do need to break the &quot;wasted vote&quot; spell, but not necessarily in one go. Would an increase of 30 seats next time be a good result? I&#039;d have thought so.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The Lib/Dems should be trying to surpass Labour and become the official opposition&#8221;</p>
<p>Sorry to pick, but that would make them the official Government, not the opposition. </p>
<p>The BBC &#8211; I don&#8217;t see much difference between their coverage and that of ITN, or C4, Five or Sky or CNN for that matter. They may be partisan,to their discredit, but the main parties will have their rapid-rebuttal units in place to combat double-speak, etc.</p>
<p>The LibDems do need to break the &#8220;wasted vote&#8221; spell, but not necessarily in one go. Would an increase of 30 seats next time be a good result? I&#8217;d have thought so.</p>
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		<title>By: John B Dick</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1095/comment-page-1#comment-321637</link>
		<dc:creator>John B Dick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jan 2008 02:24:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1095#comment-321637</guid>
		<description>Third party squeeze is the reason the LibDems always lose and why they always win too.

David Steel&#039;s record shows how it happened. He stood in a general election and got a surprising number of votes but came second. Before people in the constituency had forgotten about that, there was a bye-election and the new candidate for the government party had no benefit of incumbency. The third party (Labour) vote collapsed. Less than half what they got a few months previously if I remember correctly. 

They used to call it a &quot;protest vote&quot; but they don&#039;t say that now. Thats because there isn&#039;t a general shared expectation that voting is class based and what matters is to ensure that your natural supporters turn out.

David Steel never looked back, and adjacent constituency Liberals got a boost.

Most important was that the third party was then so far behind that a vote for Labour was a wasted vote. Elsewhere it is the LibDems.

I think that demonstrates that FPTP is like a gyroscope - it also works upside down; that elections are lost rather than won; and that not many people are strongly committed to any one of the parties any more. Perhaps the LibDems don&#039;t have many fewer committed, steady supporters than the other parties.

What this means is that the LibDems will get not many fewer or nor many more votes in the next electon than the last, but whichever way it goes, the effect on seats will be even smaller.

The Conservatives are bound to improve their position, but it is too big a hill to climb in one go. Next time round, without Scotland, it should be easy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Third party squeeze is the reason the LibDems always lose and why they always win too.</p>
<p>David Steel&#8217;s record shows how it happened. He stood in a general election and got a surprising number of votes but came second. Before people in the constituency had forgotten about that, there was a bye-election and the new candidate for the government party had no benefit of incumbency. The third party (Labour) vote collapsed. Less than half what they got a few months previously if I remember correctly. </p>
<p>They used to call it a &#8220;protest vote&#8221; but they don&#8217;t say that now. Thats because there isn&#8217;t a general shared expectation that voting is class based and what matters is to ensure that your natural supporters turn out.</p>
<p>David Steel never looked back, and adjacent constituency Liberals got a boost.</p>
<p>Most important was that the third party was then so far behind that a vote for Labour was a wasted vote. Elsewhere it is the LibDems.</p>
<p>I think that demonstrates that FPTP is like a gyroscope &#8211; it also works upside down; that elections are lost rather than won; and that not many people are strongly committed to any one of the parties any more. Perhaps the LibDems don&#8217;t have many fewer committed, steady supporters than the other parties.</p>
<p>What this means is that the LibDems will get not many fewer or nor many more votes in the next electon than the last, but whichever way it goes, the effect on seats will be even smaller.</p>
<p>The Conservatives are bound to improve their position, but it is too big a hill to climb in one go. Next time round, without Scotland, it should be easy.</p>
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		<title>By: John B Dick</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1095/comment-page-1#comment-321622</link>
		<dc:creator>John B Dick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jan 2008 01:58:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1095#comment-321622</guid>
		<description>Peter:

Correction:

It&#039;s even worse.

We only saw the MP in the company of a visiting minister or opposition spokesman .... etc.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Peter:</p>
<p>Correction:</p>
<p>It&#8217;s even worse.</p>
<p>We only saw the MP in the company of a visiting minister or opposition spokesman &#8230;. etc.</p>
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		<title>By: John B Dick</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1095/comment-page-1#comment-321619</link>
		<dc:creator>John B Dick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jan 2008 01:54:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1095#comment-321619</guid>
		<description>Peter Cairns:

I don&#039;t know why Jim Mather won in Argyll and Bute, even though I live there. I have noticed that LibDems are entrenched in certain constituencies as you say, and that many of these have more sheep than people. Is it possible that the sheep have been voting till now and the ballot paper confused them this time?

Seriously though,I voted for Jim Mather with whom I have remonstrated in the press for bad behaviour in the Westminster manner instead of for George Lyon, whom I respect and know personally and have voted for previously. 

George Lyon should be remembered for his words in an Education debate in the first session of the parliament about a results debacle. He said &quot;I have spoken to every school in my constituency and ...&quot; I think that says everything that needs to be said about the way MSP&#039;s and the Home Rule parliament operate. I was a Health Board Treasurer for seventeen years and we only ever saw the MP or a government minister when an election was expected but before the date was announced and travel expenses would be chargable to party funds. I think there was one letter.

Ask your Social Work director if the frequency of contacts with an MSP is greater than four times in 17 years.

So why did I vote for your party? I&#039;m unenthused about independence. 

Before the election I was in email correspondence with Kenny McAskill and the children&#039;s minister about Dawn Raids. I liked Mr McAskill&#039;s contribution to the Green Party debate. He didn&#039;t construct an argument, he just said it&#039;s self evidently wrong and must be stopped.

I think it is biological. I&#039;m a grandfather and the thought of children like my two grandchildren being abused by agents of the state causes me real distress. My genetic material has a better chance of survival into future generations if there is a favourable environment for my grandchildren than it does on the possibility of success in persuading a fertile woman to make more of my children. 

I&#039;ll vote for independence because I&#039;m ashamed to be British.

There are bigger &quot;not in my name&quot; issues as you are well aware and the general answer is that on all of these issues the former coalition was perceived to be not sufficiently differentiated from the Westminster New Labour government and in line with Scottish values. Otherwise they would still be in office.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Peter Cairns:</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know why Jim Mather won in Argyll and Bute, even though I live there. I have noticed that LibDems are entrenched in certain constituencies as you say, and that many of these have more sheep than people. Is it possible that the sheep have been voting till now and the ballot paper confused them this time?</p>
<p>Seriously though,I voted for Jim Mather with whom I have remonstrated in the press for bad behaviour in the Westminster manner instead of for George Lyon, whom I respect and know personally and have voted for previously. </p>
<p>George Lyon should be remembered for his words in an Education debate in the first session of the parliament about a results debacle. He said &#8220;I have spoken to every school in my constituency and &#8230;&#8221; I think that says everything that needs to be said about the way MSP&#8217;s and the Home Rule parliament operate. I was a Health Board Treasurer for seventeen years and we only ever saw the MP or a government minister when an election was expected but before the date was announced and travel expenses would be chargable to party funds. I think there was one letter.</p>
<p>Ask your Social Work director if the frequency of contacts with an MSP is greater than four times in 17 years.</p>
<p>So why did I vote for your party? I&#8217;m unenthused about independence. </p>
<p>Before the election I was in email correspondence with Kenny McAskill and the children&#8217;s minister about Dawn Raids. I liked Mr McAskill&#8217;s contribution to the Green Party debate. He didn&#8217;t construct an argument, he just said it&#8217;s self evidently wrong and must be stopped.</p>
<p>I think it is biological. I&#8217;m a grandfather and the thought of children like my two grandchildren being abused by agents of the state causes me real distress. My genetic material has a better chance of survival into future generations if there is a favourable environment for my grandchildren than it does on the possibility of success in persuading a fertile woman to make more of my children. </p>
<p>I&#8217;ll vote for independence because I&#8217;m ashamed to be British.</p>
<p>There are bigger &#8220;not in my name&#8221; issues as you are well aware and the general answer is that on all of these issues the former coalition was perceived to be not sufficiently differentiated from the Westminster New Labour government and in line with Scottish values. Otherwise they would still be in office.</p>
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		<title>By: Atlas shrugged</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1095/comment-page-1#comment-319846</link>
		<dc:creator>Atlas shrugged</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Jan 2008 20:27:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1095#comment-319846</guid>
		<description>Peter

I disagree strongly

I consider libertarians to form the majority of the British population. Even if hardly any of them know what a libertarian is. If they started voting with their gut feelings, common sense and common humanity instead of watching to much BBC they would all be libertarians.

However thats the whole point of politics. 

Which is persuading people to support a dictator or a dictators ideology that is completely NOT in there own personal interests so to do.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Peter</p>
<p>I disagree strongly</p>
<p>I consider libertarians to form the majority of the British population. Even if hardly any of them know what a libertarian is. If they started voting with their gut feelings, common sense and common humanity instead of watching to much BBC they would all be libertarians.</p>
<p>However thats the whole point of politics. </p>
<p>Which is persuading people to support a dictator or a dictators ideology that is completely NOT in there own personal interests so to do.</p>
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