Comments on: New Year round-up: Labour

By: Joe James Broughton

Joe James Broughton — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 01:17:16 +0000

Very interesting piece by Anthony, and the replies.

I think a Tory lead in votes is the underlying position (although Labour could achieve a lead at certain moments including an election squeak in 1992 style, although it wouldn’t be on as impressive a share of the vote as Major’s then, and they will win some 2005 LD votes).

The lack of scandals and gaffs might narrow the gap in the polls – for a few weeks or months anyway. We had a couple of polls over xmas which indicate that may have started, although we’ll need to see more on that, because we also had a C 45% mid December.

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 12:54:11 +0000

I could not better the analysis presented by Anthony when taken together with NBeale’s succint sumimg up of Brown’s defects.It is possible to feel some sympathy for the Prime Minister until one recalls his appalling behaviour towards Tony Blair over the previous 10 years. He should have at the very least have been moved from the Treasury after 4 or 5 years to a department where his aspirations and capabilities to succeed to the top job could have been better assessed by party and public alike. He would never have passed that test. Labour are stuck with Gordon Brown until the next election whether they like it or not and the longer he hangs on the worse it is going to get-for him and for them. As a result by 2010 the desire for a change is bound to be greater than it is today-it could overwhelm all other factors.

By: Jack

Jack — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 10:02:09 +0000

I think the real issue for Brown is that he is tainted by Blair, in that he is not ‘new’. Cameron is new. All other events being equal that means Brown is always behind as voters get bored with the old (and dislike old policies – Iraq). Cameron is clean. This, of course, means Conservatives should not recycle old policies…

By: KTL

KTL — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:48:48 +0000

Anthony – I agree with your comments that Brown is finished and that Labour can’t win another election with him at the helm. This throws up a number of other questions.

Will Brown actually survive as Labour leader till the next election ?

How long will it be before there are murmurings abot the leadership within the Labour party?

And how long can Brown stand the regular pastings he has to endure from Cameron at PMQs every Wednesday?

By: JohnH

JohnH — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 12:28:42 +0000

P Banks – re. Alec Douglas Home
Those of us whose memories do go back to that period will also remember that, even with an obviously unsuitable leader, at the fag-end of a long period in government, with a very strong feeling of “time for a change”, the Tories very nearly clung on – Wilson’s majority was only 3.
And, another historical aside, Wilson was not widely liked or trusted before becoming Prime Minister (in fact he was accused of many of the same “faults” as Brown) – but he gradually “grew on” people during his time in office, even if he was never greatly loved.