In what is likely to be the last poll of the year, ComRes’s December poll has topline figures of CON 41% (+1), LAB 30%(+3), LDEM 16% (-2). Like ICM it shows Labour recovering from their worst ratings last month, though as should be obvious, last month’s Labour score was unusually low. The Lib Dems are falling, but the poll was conducted way back between December 14th and 16th, so we certainly shouldn’t expect to see a leadership boost yet.

The other findings in the poll had David Cameron narrowly leading Gordon Brown 39% to 37% as the best man to be Prime Minister, Brown retaining his lead as the best man to take Britain through difficult economic times next year 44% to 36%, Cameron leading Brown 40% to 35% on having the best front bench team and, predictably, Cameron having a large lead on being the more likeable (51% to 31%).


51 Responses to “ComRes show 11 point Tory lead”

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  1. Excellent poll for the Tories, in that it shows them holding in the 40’s despite Labour recovring slightly from where they were in November. However, we know its pretty well out of date as we now have a new Liberal leader.

    I’m looking forward to the polls in January. Will they show Labour continuing to recover? Will the Conservatives carry on holding at around 40%? Will Clegg bring a change in fortunes for the Lib-Dems? And if so how will that impact on the other parties? And finally, will the post Christmas hangover of credit and debt cause people to become even more gloomy about economic prospects in 2008? And if so, how will that impact on the government?

    An interesting time coming up. :)

  2. This shows the Opinion Poll on ICM POLL on Saturday’s Guardian Newspaper was a Rogue Poll showing
    Con 39% Lab 34% Lib Dems 18% Others 9% of Con Lead of 5% and Labour up 4% and I think this shows a lot of Labour Supporters on Voting Poll area biased to Labour!

    This Poll shows the Tories on 41% Labour rock bottom on 30% and Clegg made no difference on 16% hardly near Charles Kennedy Ratings. The Other Parties on 13%

    This shows the Average on Conservatives on 40% Labour on 32% Lib Dems on 17% Other Parties 11% on this average Opinion Poll rating for December and XMas 2007!

    THE SNP are A REAL THREAT IN SCOTLAND V LABOUR AT WESTMINSTER AFTER WENDY ALEXANDER SCANDAL AND SCOTTISH WATER PROPOSED PRIVATISATION!

    More Data looses on 9 NHS Trusts and the Government loss of trust on the data issue and I think there have been back handlers and people done this delibertletly to hurt the Labour Government.

    Give your Annalysis!

  3. “Give your Annalysis!”

    My Analysis is that given that this poll was conducted before Clegg’s election, it does not by any means show that “Clegg made no difference”.

    Overall this poll seems a bit ‘much of a muchness’. Tories consistently ~40%, Labour low 30’s (I think its safe to say the 27% last month was an outlier) and the Lib-Dems mid-tens. Not much real change, though it is December . . . how many members of the public are paying a lot of attention to politics?

    If this is the last poll of 2007 then its the end of a very interesting year in the polls. Looking forward to Anthony’s New Year round-up of the years polls like the one last year, if its done again this year.

    ————

    Can I take this opportunity to wish everyone here a very Merry Christmas!

  4. Whatever the flaws of the ICM poll, ComRes does tend to favour the Tories. The LibDems, surprisingly, could hold the key in the first half of next-year.

    Mr Huhne was the more left-wing of the two, so the choice of Mr Clegg could play into the Tories hands. I cannot fathom why Labour has not fallen below 30% yet (save for with previous ComRes polls), but a softer centre-right LibDem choice could dissuade some Labour votes to defect from the governing-party – albeit not to the Tories. This could push Labour below the tipping-point of confidence.

    The crucial test is still going to be June. If Rusty refuses to put his trust in the electorate (via a referendum), the electorate may speak against his stance. This is, of course, reliant upon the inability of H.M. Armed Forces or H.M. Constabulary to alter the arrogant path that this current administration insists on frog-marching the people of England along.

  5. Fluffy – not sure why Clegg would be more of a danger to Brown than Huhne. I think its pretty clear that a Clegg led LD party will be more interested in battling for Tory votes in southern marginals – a greater risk for Cameron than Brown. But you are right in that the LDs will the key – my guess is that Labour have reached core support levels, and any increase in LD support will therefroe come from elsewhere and consequently narrow the gap.
    These are bad polls for Labour, although 30% is out of line with other recent polls, but interestingly enough the Tories own advisers are privately expressing concern that at this point, after all the gifts that they have been handed, they seem to be settling back to the low 40s. The feeling is they ought to be polling at 45 and above consistently and that these poll leads are more like Kinnocks before the 1992 election rather than Blair’s before 97. .

  6. Alec – The Tories have indeed received lots of gifts from Labour this year but next year will undoubtedly bring lots more.

    I think March and the Budget will be a key time.
    How is the Government going to appear to balance the books when tax receipts are lower than expected, government borrowing is already £5BN more than forecast for the year, not to mention that at least £25BN has been given to Northern Rock.

    How is the Chancellor planning to go forward without cutting public spending or raising taxes still further? Both would be deeply unpopular.

    No doubt the Chancellor will still say that everything is OK and the Government’s golden rules have been met etc but will he be believed?
    I doubt it.

    Oppositions don’t win elections . Governments lose them – generally because the economy turns against them as is happening now.

    I expect to see the Tories steady on 43-44% around Budget time.

  7. Alec – I’m going to try to write more about the Lib Dems in the next few days (I’m going to try to do an end-of-year round up for each of the main parties if I get time), but I suspect that the actual ideological positioning of the Liberal Democrats has almost no relevance to how well they do: their success is from being the decent, caring, nice-local-people alternative to whatever party a voter is disillussioned with. Between whether Clegg or Huhne would have been more of a threat to Labour or the Tories, I think the question is who would be best at getting the Lib Dems noticed and back on the agenda, rather than whether one is a bit more right or left wing than the other.

  8. My fears seem to be realised….Labours long recovery has started.Fellow conservatives on here,as I said,the triumphalism was too early,you have been warned.

  9. Lib Dems are on 16% now- Clegg probably has the ability to pull them up to 20% in the next few weeks.

  10. Well, by releasing a poll on Christmas Eve, the Independent has but served us a timely reminder that civilisation must be well and truly dead!

  11. Interesting this morning that the pound has dropped to a record low against the Euro – devaluations don’t normally help the ruling party.

  12. Well this poll, slotted into the correct sequence, makes little difference to the end point, which is that the Weighted Moving Average is 41:32:16. It still looks as if the ICM Poll was a rogue with a deviation of 4, but we won’t have more evidence till after Christmas. Since the ICM Poll is now 3 later than the youGov Sunday Times it doesn’t influence the YouGov retrospective error and this falls to a more plausible 2.8.

    CommRes are by a long way the least reliable of the pollsters, with an average pro-C bias of 1 and an observed Standard Deviation of 3.4

  13. Anthony. BPIX have not reported since mid-Oct. Have they given up?

  14. We see the LDs losing 2 points in this poll – which was conducted some time ago (14th to 16th).
    I wonder whether their – generally – slightly stronger ratings after the meltdown figures in early October where due to Vince Cable, who is impressive, and Clegg will probably grate.

    I always thought Labour’s figure in the last ComRes poll was ridiculous – it was conducted just after the lost disks. Politicians should have directed the Civil Service better on that, but it was incompetent of the IT people to set it up in this way, and I’m sure Alastair Darling had no idea.

    We are surely in a close two party competition.

  15. Anthony – thanks. I think you’re right on the comments re LDs. The point will be where any uplift in their vote will come from, and at 30% or so I don’t think Labour will supply any more votes for them, so any recover would be at Tory expense.

    KTL – You’re right – there are major difficulties, but look at the ‘leader in difficult times’ question – Brown leads. A Tory trump card is still tax cuts, but this is effectively removed by high PSBR. Is Cameron the man for a crisis? Who knows, but you can assured Labour spin doctors will be trying to give us an answer.
    Also – don’t get confused about the Northern Rock money – to date nothing has been lost for the tax payer, we’ve underwritten a bank on the basis of it’s assets. It could go wrong if the house market collapses, but there is always the prospect that with the higher than market interest rates the Chancellor is charging NR we could make a tidy profit. How would that look in 12 months time for Brown/Darling?
    Most serious analysts are predicting slower growth next year, a level house market and some difficult public spending decisions. Most newspapers are shouting ‘crisis – end of the world nigh’. If the analysts are correct, in 12 months time Brown will be able to point to another ‘recession’ that never happened, and continue to boast about competance etc. If the press are right, lets all meet next Christmas Eve in our cardboard boxes under Waterloo Bridge and reminisce about great polls of the past…..

    And by the way – I’m not a total nerd – I’m one of those who has to work over Christmas, hence a few postings while all is quiet. Merry Christmas to everyone – even Atlas…

  16. Collin – there was a more recent BPIX poll than that, but the Mail on Sunday never released the Lib Dem figure so I couldn’t add the full figures to the table.

  17. I wonder what impact it will make on the Tory poll ratings when it becomes more widely known that David Cameron is worth £26 million (and growing? Will there be some people out there who are likely to think that someone with this sort of money might find it difficult to conect with the lives of ordinary folks in this country? Only time will tell but it would surprise me if the Tories don’t come under presure next year and the wealth angle (reinforced by what I’m sure will be a developing Ashcroft debate) could be interesting!

  18. David Bowtell

    This will not come out simply because people might start then to start to work out how much Gordon Brown is now worth. Which is enough to still make most people shudder with envy. People know Cameron is an establishment Tof and worth a few million, how else would his parents have sent to the home of the silver spooned, which is Eton?

    Tony Blair was and still is a Royal Knight of Malta. You do not become one of those by being the son of a coal miner. Perhaps you would give yourself a better education by studying the personal wealth and upbringing of the parents of every single British Prime minister there has ever been. With the exception of maybe Major they have all been rich bastards one way or another. In comparison with the average British person, they have all been VERY rich bastards indeed.

  19. David Bowtell
    Yes there may be some people who still see politics essentially through the Tribal prisms of background, wealth and class.Hazel Blears is one such-when Cameron went to Manchester to promote ideas about the role of the Co-Operative movement she objected that he could have no connection with Co-Operative principles.

    Fortunately this narrow & socially divisive attitude has been expunged from Cameron’s Conservative Party…but it is alive and well in corners of un-reconstructed “Old” Labour.

    I have no doubt that the electorate in general is able to make an assessment of politicians’ honesty , integrity & purpose , whether they be rich or poor.

  20. I’m not sure being rich is such a bad thing: actually it may be a sign of competence or luck, both of which may well be desirable things for a PM.

    oh and Merry Christmas to all from a safe Conservative seat.

  21. Alec: the “above market” interest rates to NRock are no such thing. 1% over LIBOR is pretty much what top-rated banks pay, and they have to pay interest in cash – our “interest” is rolled up in more loans to the Rock. Note that when Brown was pressed at his last Press Conference as to whether we’d get all our money back with interest he declined to give that assurance

  22. Atlas and Colin

    I think people are interested in the background of top politicians. The background, wealth and life experience of Cameron and Brown and any other politician for the matter seems to me a perfectly legitimate area of interest. I would be surprised if Brown is worth a million let alone millions as being a son of the manse he certainly wouldn’t have inherited much. I suspect the Blair’s money comes primarily from the fees Cherie commands whilst looking back further I wouldn’t have described either Wilson or Heath as ‘toffs’, and even further back Churchill’s financial difficulties are well documented despite his ‘toffs’ background. I’d agree that generally people in the UK don’t go around being envious of the rich, with the caveat that there’s more acceptance of wealth that’s earned compared with wealth that’s inherited. Over and above that, a politician’s hinterland is something that people react to and this was something that very much went in favour of John Major who worked his way up the greasy pole from lowly beginnings. I think there is a concern about those who have been professional politicians most of their working lives and who have limited personal experience of what it’s really like out there.

  23. Anthony,

    In terms of a review of major parties, does the SNP count…..

    Peter.

  24. No, but could you do one anyway ;-)

  25. Twas the Night before Christmas,

    And all the Polls they were closed
    what Anthony was doing, well nobody knows:
    The parliaments closed and the weather set fair,
    all thoughts to the future and what would be there;

    The bloggers were nestling most snug in there beds,
    with visions of averages awash in their heads,
    and some on their keyboards sat on their lap,
    had settled in tight with a little night cap;

    When over the net there came with a clatter,
    A last poll from ComRes that didn’t really matter.
    Away to the spreadsheets they started with haste
    and began the typing with no time to waste.

    So soon they had posted what they had to know,
    with questions and answers on subjects below,
    When what should to my surprise appear,
    but Anthony’s answers to give us a steer.

    Our little old driver so lively and quick,
    to keep us in line and give us some stick.
    Most rapid of Bloggers he knew the whole game,
    and whistled and shouted and called us by name,

    “Now Atlas, now Colin, now Fluffy and Nick!
    On Philip, on Gin, and Mike’s thick as a brick….
    To the top off the posting I came after all,
    dashing my answer and having a ball,

    As dry quotes from a keyboard hazardly fly,
    My theories and ideas were all pie in the sky.
    So up to the top all the other posts flew,
    telling me all the failings that everyone knew.

    And then in response I tried guessing on hoof,
    a couple of jokes and a try at a spoof,
    As I struggled to argue while holding my ground,
    and hoping by chance to say something profound.

    I addressed every angle eruditly to boot,
    and every attack I did try to refute.
    A bundle of facts i had at my back,
    and I made every ready to fend an attack.

    Anthony sighed at my prose, ever trying to be cherry,
    Didn’t mean it at all, probably ever so weary.
    With facts and with figures ever in tow,
    politely as ever he let us all know.

    He laid down the law, where we shouldn’t go beneath,
    but making us do it was like pulling teeth,
    He’d edit, delete, tell all “ It’s not the telly”,
    be awefull polite, before giving it welly…..

    I sure though polite he just laughs to himself,
    and hopes that one day we’ll be left on the shelf,
    I think that he wonders what’s on in our head,
    posting on immigration, with trepidation and dread.

    He hates it whenever we question his work,
    and less even when someone calls him a jerk.
    But he’s usually restrained wherever it goes,
    which given our postings god only knows.

    But come the new year polls will be out with a whistle,
    and I’ll be back here talking about the saltire and thistle.

    So I’ll leave you this year and await the next fight,

    “HAPPY CHRISTMAS TO ALL, AND TO ALL POSTERS GOOD NIGHT.”

    Peter.

  26. Peter

    Wonderful

  27. Fantastic Peter!

    Happy Christmas Everyone!

  28. That was fantastic Peter. :D

    Merry Christmas everyone.

  29. Excellent Peter! :) And I note the time of posting! Have a great Christmas all.

  30. Terrific stuff Peter

    A Merry Christmas & a Political New Year to all.

    Cheers

    Colin

  31. Alec

    In response to your post.

    Whichever way you look at it most people expect things to get worse economically this year. How much worse is the subject of debate. Will we have a recession or just 1% growth. Either scenario will be bad for the Government and will hurt their poll ratings. When we’ve been used to sevral years of 2%+ growth then 1% growth will feel like a recession.

    Regarding Northern Rock – I appreciate that the money isn’t “lost” yet as such but one way or another the Goverment has “lent” NR at least £25BN which it won’t get back for quite a while even if a buyer is found speedily . In fact there are no assurances that it will get all the money back. This must therefore have some impact on Government borrowing and must have some impact on the Government’s financial position come budget time.

  32. KTL,

    Another issue with the NR loan that the government hasn’t answered or as far as I know been asked ( but probably will be) is,

    ” If it’s okay for NR why not Rover or Airbus or any other major employer that gets in to trouble”.

    This gets us in to the territory of when does a government intervene, labour or Tory.

    Does the company need to be fundamentally sound but just caught out. Is it about the knock on effect and stability, or is it about the number of jobs and/or share holders.

    If Labour are seen to treat shareholders in the financial sector or worse still city institutions as more important than workers in engineering then I can’t see the unions being happy.

    So I’d suspect that in the New Year, politicians and parliament to start asking the government serious questions about it’s general policy on intervention.

    I would hazard a guess that it doesn’t exactly have one as such and just makes it up as it goes along.

    As I said I haven’t seen these questions asked yet, so have I just missed it them or if I haven’t has anyone ideas as to why they haven’t been asked?

    Are Labour MP’s scared to ask because they don’t want to make matters worse?

    Are the Tories scared to ask because they don’t have an answer either?

    Is this Nick Clegg’s first chance to make a mark and set out a distinct LibDem position?

    Oh and before anyone asks I’ve know idea what the SNP position is…..

    Peter.

  33. It’s different because banks are different. Why? Because they are.

    That’s the answer and nobody wants to say it, so nobody is going to ask.

  34. I had a look at the ComRes results and they show a very high rating for the SNP, over 40%. even with the normal caveats about sample size this seems unrealistically high.

    Another odd result was in the Cameron v Brown questions. As you’d expect brown was more popular in Scotland but also more popular with SNP supporters. That means it could go two ways. On the one hand in a time for change mood Labour could lose out, Scotland could vote SNP, England Tory.

    However Scots could back Brown over Cameron giving labour some hope of improving their current position. I am pretty sure it will be a bit of both, the SNP will have a good election but not as good as current polls suggest.

    The other odd thing in the results that I’d be interested in people views on are the strongly pro Brown views of both UKIP and BNP supporters.

    Whether it be Brown’s seeming Euro Scepticism or BJfBW he seems to beat Cameron hands down for the votes of the far right.

    I wonder how that will go down with the left of the Labour party if it holds true for other polls and the press pick up on it.

    Peter.

  35. Compliments of the season , Peter . The detailed data for the last ICM poll is now on their website . It is interesting to compare this with the Comres data .
    Unweighted figures
    Comres Con 26.7% Lab 21.1% LD 10.5% Others 8.3%
    ICM… Con 24.0% Lab 24.2% LD 10.4% Others 5.7%

    Weighted figures
    Comres Con 27.0% Lab 20.2% LD 10.4% Others 8.4%
    ICM… Con 23.2% Lab 21.8% LD 11.7% Others 6.6%

    Note Comres weighting reduced the LD figure .
    SNP were 26 people in Comres , 19 in ICM .
    As ever the 18-24 age group varies wildly , Comres having Con in lead LD’s a poor 3rd , ICM have LD’s in the lead .
    The comparison with how people voted in 2005 is pretty consistent . Both polls have Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers exactly cancelling each other out and both polls have a net change of 12 and 13 from LD to Con . The net change from Lab to Con is rather wider 27 with Comres and 12 with ICM .

  36. I think all this really shows is that you can’t draw any real conclusions from the small print of the polls because there is too much sampling error. The overall C Lead has a 90% confidence interval of +/- 5% or more, so the 90% confidence intervals for the C and L votes are probably +/-3% based on about 240 responses each. Rough calculations suggest that something with 24 responses will therefore have a 90% confidence interval of roughly +/- 10% and 12 responses roughly +/- 15% but in practice I think the errors will be much higher.

  37. “Another issue with the NR loan that the government hasn’t answered or as far as I know been asked ( but probably will be) is,
    KTL asks;
    ” If it’s okay for NR why not Rover or Airbus or any other major employer that gets in to trouble”

    The supposed saving of Northern Rock is simply because it is based in the North east. There are 6500 voting workers(and their voting families) and 28 Labour MPs that need those votes. If it were the Kensington and Chelsea Building Society based in the south there would have been no help! The cost may be cheap for Darling and Brown but at £2000 each (and rising) for everyone in the country its extremely expensive for the rest of us

  38. Sue,

    I doubt that’s the case.

    Apart from anything else, even on current Polling Labour could lose 65,000 votes across twenty seats and still romp home in the North East, while losing even 6,500 in London could cost them half a dozen.

    By and large your job is always safer in a marginal than a solid party seat as government or opposition the lost of jobs isn’t going to swing the seat.

    It’s cynical but it’s true.

    Peter.

  39. Its economic concerns as a whole not any individual employees jobs, that are at stake.

    Presiding over the first run on a bank in centuries is bad enough . . . actually having a bank go under may have happened in recent times (Barings for example) could be a disaster that could cripple the governments reputation. The ripple effects of a bank going under could spread far and wide, the unknown consequences could be even more significant. They may not be, but the risk is more significant.

    The effects of a bank going under, even a relatively small one like Northern Rock, could be much worse than a failure of the likes of Rover.

    However it should be noted that the government did attempt to save Rover. Rover should have died in 2000, instead its being put down to sleep was delayed for 5 years.

  40. This concern for “the Government’s reputation” does not justify putting up £50bn+ of the taxpayers money in loans/guarantees (and maybe £100M in fees) to “save” 6,000 jobs in an insignificant bank that almost no-one had heard of before the crash. Barings was world-famous, it was allowed to fail with no adverse consequences to the system as a whole.

    It’s not that the NE Labour MPs need the NRock votes, so much that G Brown needs the support of the NE Labour MPs. Nick Brown (the Newcastle NE MP) has been very close to G Brown for a long time and there are also potentially relevant connections between N Brown and Spencer Livermore G Brown’s Director of Political Strategy.

  41. Doesn’t justify it to you, or the electorate? Or doesn’t justify it to Brown and Darling? It might to the latter, even if not to the electorate as a whole.

  42. To Alec, 24th December 2007.

    Sorry for the delay. Politics and Christmas should never mix. My point about Clegg may need clarifying.

    Many Labour voters would never vote Tory. Having a demi-Thatcher (a’ la Blair) in charge of the LibDems could enfranchise discontented supporters of NewLab to defect to a NewTory-lite LibDems.

    Given the alleged support for the public-sector that the LibDems pander for, public-sector professional [sic] could see this as an alternative support-option to the Tories. Teachers, nurses and junior police-officers have much to avoid NewLab about…!

    Happy New Year one and all.

  43. Hi Fluffy – I’m sure you’re right on this. 42 of the LibDem top 100 seats are Lab held and it is possible that they could, over 2 elections, replace Labour as the party of Opposition. Given the utter collapse of Labour morale, it might be possible sooner – Lab defections to the Lib Dems are by no means unthinkable in 08 or 09.

  44. Fluffy & NBeale-except that Clegg is making Cameronian noises about the Public Services…less central control/more client choice/more local autonomy etc etc.

    I’m pretty certain the teachers wouldn’t willingly vote for this agenda-or the nurses if it means the dreaded “reforms”.
    They will be glad that Blair’s efforts to push public sector reforms died with his departure, and hoping that Brown will row back from them.Therefore IMHO the only way a LibDem vote would be more appealing than a NuLab one would be if the former offered public sector policies to the left of the latter.
    Clegg appears to be trying to move right of centre rather than left of Labour.Had he ( or Huhne!)chosen the latter course I agree that this would have offered a home for disaffected public sector workers, concerned about a Tory Government and disillusioned with NuLab’s lack of socialist credentials.

  45. Colin

    I think you may be forgetting that there are some sensible people in the NHS and teaching professions that know things need reforming. Thats why many of the more sensible ones voted for TB 3 times in the first place. But now they have seen either no real reform, or very destructive target based reforms that have in practice made things worse, rather then better.

    The simple point to remember is that as perceptions are all in politics, what Clegg says is important as far as the fortunes of the Conservative party are concerned.

    Especially in Con/Lab marginals, which are the ones that really count the most. True 6 pointers you might say.

    Also why vote Lib/Dem to keep out a Tory when the result could be 5 more years of Labour. When Lib/Dem policies are much the same as Tory ones?

    If The Lib/Dems spend their air time propagating basically practical free market policies then Clegg will help to make practical free market policies become acceptable to the general electorate.

    This will largely castrate the Labour parties affiliated media, like for example the BBC and the Daily Mirror.

    Who will then be hard pushed to start indicting that such policies will result in the entire population possibly dying of cancer and the NHS being unable or unwilling to treat them. Very much like they did very cleverly, during the last 3 general elections.

    I could be wrong about this, but I doubt it.

  46. One more poll for 2007 at least . . . Sunday Times/YouGov.

    Headline Figures: 40/35/16 (Con Lead 5)
    “Almost 6 out of 10 believe the Prime Minister is doing badly”

    Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3108146.ece

  47. Hi New Opinion Poll out on SUNDAY TIMES NEWSPAPER Shows Conservative 40% Labour 35% Lib Dems 15%
    Other Parties 10% on YOU GOV POLL ON 30th DEC 2007!

    Good News for Labour and Gordon Brown but Bad news for David Cameron Voters still have reservations about him because they think he is a Bit Smarmy still and A ETON TOFF?

    Nick Clegg will be a threat towards David and Gordon because of his youth looks?

    If Gordon Brown knows if he loses an A Genral Election who will have a plan to change the voting System to prevent the Tories (Conservatives)will win an General Election again by First Past The Post by Changing Electoral System?

    He can think of 3 different Voting P.R Systems like Alternative Vote Plus, Additional Member System or Single Transferable Vote this is a form of Proportional Representation to prevent a Tory government getting a majority in the House of Commons!

    Go on Gordon wrong Foot the Tory Party and wrong foot Cameron change the Electoral System and the Constitutional System in Local Government and Elected House of Lords!

    Go on Gordon I hope you do this before the Election in 2009 or 2010?

  48. PA reports this poll but I can’t see it on the timesonline website (???). It makes the WMA 41:33:16 – a year ago it was 37:33:17. But it is deeply puzzling that Brown’s ratings go down and Cameron’s up and the C Lead goes down. I wonder whether a poll in the middle of the Christmas Break has some reliability problems. We shall have to see next year.

  49. I’ve seen the reports of the YouGov poll too – its very much in line with what I’ve been talking about for a considerable time now and rather backs up my comments to some of you who immediately wrote off an earlier better poll for Labour as a rogue. Cameron has established a reputation as a good leader of the opposition but has not yet convinced voters that he is PM material. It will be very interesting to see how the internal Tory tensions between modernisers and traditionalists play out in 2008 – that is one story that is far from over, and we still don’t know what Cameron’s real opinions and policies are. Labour is in trouble, but not terminaly so. Those of you who believe Brown is finished may well be seriously disappointed.
    Brown is warning today of a tough economic climate – it’s clear what line he is looking to play in 2008, and he knows voters still have serious doubts about Cameron’s leadership in tough times.
    I would expect the polls to bounce around a little in the coming year – Tory spikes when there is a bad news story, settling back when there isn’t. Perhaps an embarrassment for Cameron in the May London elections helping Labour nudge ahead for a while (good chance to get the Eton Toff arguement an easy airing). What will be most interesting is to see what people start telling pollsters when a real election is approaching. John Major played a blinder on this in 1992, telling voters to think about what they were doing as the pencil hovered over the ballot paper and it worked – despite all the reservations they rejected the unknown quantity with a dramatic late swing. Whether Cameron can convince people is a question I don’t think we will have an answer to until those final few seconds in the polling booths, and I think the next election could go right down to the wire.

  50. Strange poll [ToS/Yougov], but I am no anthropologist. Must be the season of good-will.

    Colin, old Rusty McBean is reported to announce that the provision of public-services is to be radically reformed. Maybe saving the public-services will be his legacy, as he also appears to admit that the economy is about to go the proverbial “pants-up”.

    As nothing is currently happening in the political sphere in Her Majesty’s Kingdom why have polls? Most people are more concerned about their friends, relations, and fellow Commonwealth citizens in Pakistan. In 2008 we have many pit-falls awaiting; many known knowns, some unknown unknowns, and lost that remain unknown but we should know.

    So – as is the spirit of the year – let’s debate tomorrow as we drink 2007 good-bye. Let’s judge one-another not by race, upbringing, or inability to conform what we see as right [sic]. Let’s us look forward to 2008 and it’s many elections, it’s unsure legislation and, come April, the raising of the lowest tax-band from 10% to 20%. No wonder our political leaders want a 10% pay-rise!

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