A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has voting intentions with changes from their last poll of CON 45% (+2), LAB 32% (nc), LDEM 14% (nc).

The 13 point Conservative lead is the largest YouGov have ever given them, and matches that recorded by ComRes (who tend to produce larger Tory leads than other pollsters) last month. 45% is their highest level of support since 1992 and the highest for any party since MORI started filtering by likelihood to vote, removing some of the towering Labour leads they used to report as their topline figures. On a uniform swing it would produce a Conservative majority of almost 100.

If the trends in this poll are repeated elsewhere then it would suggest the Conservatives have advanced beyond the 40% or so level they’ve been at for the last few weeks. Meanwhile the Labour party remain at 32% – the same level of support as they recorded in the previous two YouGov polls – despite the immediate air of crisis around the government fading. To say the least, this is not going to help morale within the Labour party.

The Liberal Democrats too are static on 14%. YouGov always tend to show the lowest level of support for them, and much lower than ICM, but across the board the polls suggest the recovery they experienced after Ming Campbell’s resignation has stalled. Next week will see Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne elected as their new leader and Liberal Democrat supporters will be hoping that the attendent coverage boosts their profile and support.


136 Responses to “YouGov give Tories a commanding lead”

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  1. I doubt that very many Lib Dem members voted for that reason, but because the vote was so close it may have had an effect.

  2. Adrian
    His small majority was supposed to rule out a Hulne victory altogether. There can be no doubt who ‘won’ the campaign. Peter commented on this site some weeks ago that a close leadership result is the last result a party wants. This one couldn’t get much closer. If Clegg does well, it won’t matter but if he wobbles the Lib Dems and the media will bring up the closeness of the contest and it is bound to undermine him. 511 votes for the clear front runner is a poor show.

  3. I think you both miss the real point.

    Why did so many vote for Huhne knowing his seat is less safe then an ice cube floating in the The Gulf of Mexico?

    I do not know either, but it does ask some SERIOUS questions as to the true validity of this so called free election in the first place.

    Unless the plan was for Huhne to be transfered to a rock solid seat if he had won. However I did not hear about such a plan, and I guess no members of the Lib/Dems did either.

  4. Polls are interesting, so are by election results, which involve people actually voting. When the Tories last turfed out a Labout government in 1979, they did so on the back of seven seats gained in by elections against a weak government with a tiny or no majority. Four of those gains were in the first two and half years, which is four more than the Tories have managed this time.

  5. Peter Cairns
    ‘Yeah,You, Clegg and Lucifer’
    Nice one Peter. I have sort of figured out from this that I am supposed to be representing the Tories, Clegg obviously the Liberal Democrats but who does Lucifer represent ? As I live in Scotland there are two remaining options: is it the Labour party or is it the Nationalists? Can anyone out there advise ?

  6. I like Clegg, but he has been weak so far, really unbelivably empty. I want to see him being less critical about the Tories. They are more natural coalition bedfellows for him and share the Lib Dem respect for civil liberties and are more economically liberal than they themselves are. The social conservatism that has been the traditional stumbling block to Tories and genuine Liberals workjing together has been toned down considerabl under Cameron. The most illiberal authoritatian party is Labour by some distance- it’s time for the Liberals and Conservatives to unite around a magical coalisiton of Gladstonian and one nation conservative values and restore liberalism to British politics.

  7. Nick Griffin maybe?

  8. Graham, that is largely because there are far fewer by-elections these days, coupled with the fact that almost all the seats Labour have had to defend in by-elections since 1997 have been in that party’s hands since the 1960s.

  9. Graham – there’s only been one by-election which the Cameron’s Tories had a real chance of winning in this Parliament in Enfield – and that took place in the middle of the Tory 2007 early summer dip (grammar schools row etc). To do true comparison between Cameron and Thatcher in the 70s it would require a number of winnable Labour seats to become vacant which the Tories can then target. I think we can excuse David Cameron’s poor by-election record to date on the basis of the unusually robust health of Labour MPs.

  10. Re the Lib Dem Leadership election.

    The first thing to observe is that they have not made a clear cut decision at all-it was as near as damit 50/50

    On LibDem Voice a LD Councillor asserts that “We all know that our real power base is in local government”. ( I just checked the May 07 results-some power base!-but more councillors than Labour though)
    This contributor urges Clegg to concentrate on “local issues”.To the extent that this person’s assertions reflect LD membership opinion, perhaps the role of the LD MPs is seen more as a shop window for LD councillors than an influence on Government?
    Interestingly one of the areas which David Cameron suggested as potential for Con/LD co-operation was exactly what the LD Councillor mentioned-decentralisation of power and local autonomy-but this was rejected by Cable.

    Also on Lib Dem Voice is a Poll asking where the party should be positioned Socially & Economically.
    The results to date show Socially Liberal as an overwhelming choice…but for Economically it’s a pretty even three way split-liberal/centrist/left of centre.

    I remain totally confused as to the objectives and purpose of the Lib Dem Party.

  11. Steven,

    Old Nick “Griffin” works fine with me…..Bang on the nail.

    Peter.

  12. It’s always interesting when you talk to hard line lifelong Labour voters especially in the North East where i live – ask them what they stand for & amazingly the tick goes under the Tory or even far right wing banner of political standpoint without them realising – the only anti Tory thing they ever say is – i did’nt like Margaret Thatcher & the Poll Tax – all the freedoms the Tories stand for they agree with but don’t realise that voting Labour or Liberal their freedoms are taken away from them and their choice to choose .

    The real party of the working man who stands for everybodies rights & freedom to choose are the Tories – Labour are very good at smearing the Tories as they did with the perfectly reasonable and fair (Community Charge) or as Labour marketed it ,the “Poll Tax” . And smearing the last Tory government under John Major as “Sleazy” over one or two personal (not party) minor misconducts . It certainly worked for 10 years – but it’s coming back to bite both the Liberals and Labour on the ass & the POLLS and subsequent elections will see a change of government for another 18 years.

    Incidently – i am not being partisan here – just stating the obvious / i have yet to state my political persuasion !! Though many have tried to guess – lol

  13. Scotland, Wales and northern England are irrelevant to a possible Tory victory. The Tories need to win back seats in the Midlands and the South which they lost to New Labour (“Essex man”). Thatcher got a three-figure majority in 1987 with barely any Tory seats in Scotland, Wales and the Northern cities, however she obliterated Labour in the South almost completely.

  14. Steven Wheeler
    Nick Griffin maybe?

    How did I miss that one? Yes he is Lucifer writ large. And there was I thinking it might be Nic-ola Sturgeon. Shame on me!
    Nick

  15. I know I shouldn’t respond to Trolls but Mike, really? Are you really arrogant enough to think that all Labour voters in the NE are really Tories but are too stupid to realise it? I’m not going to get into a huge argument about why Labour is better for the working class as that isn’t what this site is about but I could at least mention the minimum wage, maternity/paternity leave and Child tax credits.

    Everybody has there own political view and there are legitimate arguments to be made on all sides – including for the poll tax – but to delude yourself in the manner you do doesn’t help you or your argument. Are you actually taking this site seriously or are your posts designed purely to bait people like me into replying?

    Sorry, rant over now. Happy Christmas everyone :)

  16. These are quotes from Nick Clegg after winning the LD leadership:-

    “Our civil liberties have been casually cast aside, our public services are run by giant, faceless and often incompetent government bureaucracies, and our poorest communities suffer with security and opportunity in short supply.

    Government must learn to trust people.

    I want our party to look at new ways in which parents, pupils and patients can take charge of the schools and hospitals that they rely on.

    We must plan to break down the barriers to social mobility,”

    If he really wants to see these principles enacted by Government I wonder why he doesn’t just join Cameron’s Conservative Party?

    And why would people like me who want to see these things, decide that a LD vote is a better way to bring them about than a Conservative vote?

    As for Labour voters-if they don’t want these things -what do they want-and why?

  17. Nicholas: We can win it without many Scotland and Wales MPs really, but not without the North. That’s far too general, there already are lots of Tory MPs in the North and there could be many, many more after the next election in the event of a Tory victory.

  18. As the possibility of a Conservative government becomes more and more apparent, the Libdems are going to be squeezed, Clegg or no Clegg. At the election which probably won’t be till 2010, the choice will be between carrying on as we are with Labour, or changing and having a Conservative Government. There will actually be no appetite for having a hung parliament with all the uncertainty that would bring. I personally believe that there will be the desire for change, though that will depend on how Labour perform over the next cvouple of years, and on whether the Conservatives continue to look more and more like a party which is ready for Government.

    But the choice will be between Brown and Cameron; anything else is a wasted vote and so the big squeeze on the Libdems has already started as people begin to see this.

    Libdems will be lucky to end up with more than 15% of the vote, which could be little more than a dozen seats as tactical voting unwinds.

    Clegg has been handed the poisoned chalice.

  19. As for the Tories appealing to working class areas, there is a certain element of appeal, such as the areas they’re strongest in, immigration and crime, but when it comes right down to it, there are more factors which make them lean towards Labour through topics that more directly affect them like jobs and child benefits. The Tories would have to isolate their core middle/upper class voters to appeal more to the poorest, which is too much of a risk.

    As for the Libdems, they are in trouble if polls don’t pick up an increase in percentages, now that Clegg is the breath of fresh air or in other people’s eyes “David Cameron Mark 2”. If they can’t gather support now, then it’s going to be one uphill struggle for them. I feel Clegg is too soft, just because he was youthful and the better communicator. They’ve missed out on Huhne and Cable who i preferred. In the interests of democracy, i hope they don’t get obliterated. In England they’ve got to worry about the Tories, in Scotland it’s the SNP, in Wales, the Tories and Plaid. I wouldn’t wish to see Huhne lose his seat, since i thought he’s been so unlucky in 2 previous leader elections and the Libdems need someone who has authority.

    As for a hung parliament, i’m absolutely sure the Libdems with leader Clegg will vouch for the Tories, for the reason he looks up to David Cameron and he has been accused of Tory sympathies in the past. Not only that, the government is tired and most people do not want to see more of Gordon Brown and “New Labour”.

  20. Also, the fact that Huhne has a seat in the middle of a Tory heartland doesn’t help him much either.

  21. Mike Richardson

    The Labour Party were not good at discrediting the last Conservative government. They were more then useless at that, as they are at governing the UK for the benefit of ordinary people.

    I think with hind sight you will understand that the real experts at disinformation and government manipulation was and still is the BBC and several other Fascist financed media propagandists like the Guardian and the Daily Mirror.

  22. The Guardian financed by fascists must rank, along with everyone north of Watford who votes Labour is really a Tory, as nutty comment of the Month.

    Peter.

  23. STEVEN WHEELER (Lab) Wrote :-
    “I know I shouldn’t respond to Trolls but Mike, really? Are you really arrogant enough to think that all Labour voters in the NE are really Tories but are too stupid to realise it? I’m not going to get into a huge argument about why Labour is better for the working class as that isn’t what this site is about but I could at least mention the minimum wage, maternity/paternity leave and Child tax credits.

    Everybody has there own political view and there are legitimate arguments to be made on all sides – including for the poll tax – but to delude yourself in the manner you do doesn’t help you or your argument. Are you actually taking this site seriously or are your posts designed purely to bait people like me into replying?”
    ____________________________________________________

    MY REPSONSE :- The mere fact that a labour supporter like Mr Wheeler calls me a TROLL because i highlight some of the facts about Labour mismanagement and double standards actually confirms the low level of argument that they can sustain – perhaps that’s why it’s so hard to get a senior Labour politician to appear on TV !! You don’t see me using personal insults to anyone on here .

    [edited out partisan tirade – AW]

  24. Two of the contributors’ comments to this site are so outrageously bizarre that they must have been made by closet Socialists/Liberals, for their very content makes one abhor the cause they pretend to seek to promote.

  25. Mike,

    A “Troll” is a message deliberately designed to antagonise other users, which I think is what you are doing. I didn’t mean that you yourself are a troll, like the ones that live under bridges and eat billy goats. It wasn’t a “personal insult”, it was a reprimand!

    Back on the topic of Nick Clegg’s victory. I don’t see that he is necessarily doomed to be squeezed by the Tory party. All it takes is a few gaffes from the Tory party between now and the election and people might start to really go for the “new politics” talk. After all The Lib Dems are the only one of the top three parties to really stand up for things like proportional representation etc which makes a real difference to the fairness of the system. I think that kind of real change might appeal to voters who are sick of Labour and the Conservatives and who simply don’t believe the “whiter than white” talk from anybody.

  26. OK – I’m back online full time, thanks to those of you who kept discussion from descending into pointless partisan squabbling in my absence.

    Mike – as Steven says, a troll is someone who posts in a way to deliberately cause an argument or otherwise bugger up a discussion. Even if you don’t mean to, that’s what posting partisan comments here does. It’s not the place for that.

  27. Whittingham – Huhne has a seat in the middle of a Tory heartland ???? with seats nearby Romsey , Winchester , Portsmouth South all LibDem and Portsmouth North and the two Southampton seats all Labour . Eastleigh itself is down to just 5 Conservative councllors and heading down to 4 next May . As I have said before Eastleigh Conservative Association is a basket case with falling membership and no accounts filed this year and has had to be taken in hand by CCHQ .

  28. A new YouGov poll has come out, with Tory – 43%, Labour 31%.

  29. That would certainly be consistent with the data: WMA 42:32 C Lead 10.2 up from 9.6 last time. Remember it’s steadily rising at 4% per month. But where is the poll (ch 4??) and why not posted here?

  30. I see from Sky News that it’s the Telegraph (but not on Telegraph website yet). WMA= 42:32:16 increase in C Lead exactly as per a 4% per month. And the WMA C vote is another new high (42.2 up from 41.9 if you want 3 sig figs). It’s also clear that the last Populus poll was out by 2.2 points and I/Mori by 3

  31. Poll is in tomorrow’s Telegraph Con 43 Lab 31 LibDem 16 presumably Others 10

  32. At 4% a month increase in Tory support we can predict two things…..

    Either by this time next year we will all be voting Tory, or that 4% a month is a meaningless statistic. I am for the latter.

    I think the line that the Brown bounce is over and that it’s back to what we saw in the spring with a general public mood for a change after 11 years is realistic and probably right.

    That means in UK terms 40%, 30%, 15%, with 15% up for grabs. So we could see 45% to 30% for the Tories but we could also see 40% to 35%.

    The LibDems won’t go much below 15% but they won’t go over 205 either.

    We are therefore on course for a small minority Tory Government on current polls, but all that could change due to the dreaded “Events” or things coalescing closer to the election.

    In Scotland you need to account for the SNP ( Look Anthony even though it’s getting very partisan I didn’t put GLORIOUS in front of the name), so I’d currently go for 30%, 30%, 15% 15% and 10% up for grabs.

    When I don’t mention other it’s not that I dismiss them but rather that they do tend to get squeezed when a FPTP election is close.

    Anthony,

    Just in passing when I pull up the YouGov results as PDF’s and click on full details, nothing happens, so I can’t access the full tables. As I use a Mac it might be an issue just for me.

    Peter.

  33. ANTHONY :-

    I object to your EDITING of my comments as a form of censorship ! You allow any partisan rantings by Labour supporters against anything i say including personal insults towards me – like Steven Wheeler (Lab) without any censorship !!

    If you are wanting to run a site based on POLLS and peoples reaction to them – and you want to stop any partisan talk – i suggest you take an UNBIASED view when CENSORING comments and stop looking for mine in particular !

    Perhaps spme of the abusive personal commenst should be looked at first ?

  34. I intend to highlight any partisan discussion on here from any political direction for future censorship !

  35. Mike,

    Just how do you know that Anthony doesn’t edit other peoples posts?

    I’ve seen a fair number of partisan posts here from all sides but few are as blatant as yours. I think you might just be particularly thin skinned while others are perhaps less easily irked by partisan posts.

    Me, I’ve got a hide like a rhino so I can take most things in my stride. For the record I think I’ve only been edited once, although if Anthony was willing to fix spelling mistakes I am sure I’d get a lot more.

    Peter.

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