will the full SNP results be going up and do they have set of Westminster results,

Mike Richardson,

Dear dear mike, you’ll have to do better than that.

The list does look impressive at eleven seats but a fact on it’s own is a lonely thing, so lets add the winning parties share and the required swing.

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine – 3rd – 28.4%
LibDem seat, share -46.3%, swing required 17.9%
Even with the LibDems falling still a huge task,

Angus – 2nd – 29.4%
SNP seat, share -33.7%, swing required 4.2%
Unlikely with the SNP 10% up on 2005.

Argyl & Bute – 2nd – 23.5%
LibDem seat, share – 36.5%, swing required 13%,
Again unlikely and it should be noted that this was an SNP gain at Holyrood not a Tory one.

Berwickshire , Roxburgh & Selkirk – 2nd – 28.8%
LibDem seat, share – 41.8%, swing 13%
Again a really big ask for the Tories in the borders.

Dumfries & Galloway – 2nd – 35.4%
Labour seat, share – 41.1%, swing required 5.7%
This is a possible given Labours woes.

Edinburgh South – 3rd – 24.1%
Labour seat, share – 32.3%, but LibDems on 32.3% in Second.
swing required for Tories 8%
Unlikely to see the Tories pick up all the Labour and LibDem deserters, and much more likely a LibDem gain.

Edinburgh South West – 2nd – 23.3%
Labour seat, share – 39.8%, swing required 16.5%.
Even though he is struggling as chancellor, Alistair darling has a huge profile and a personal vote to overcome.

Moray – 2nd – 21.9%
SNP seat, share 36.6%, swing required 14.6%
No Chance Angus Robertson is hugely popular has a high profile as SNP leader in the house, and has lead on the Nimrod issue locally. Also the LibDems and Labour were both only 2% behind the Tories.

Perth & North Perthshire – 2nd – 30.4%
SNP seat, share 33.7%, swing – 3.3%
again given that the Tories are static and the SNP way up, highly unlikely.

Renfrewshire East – 2nd – 29.9%
Labour seat, share 43.9%, swing – 14%
Again a huge task for the Tories even with Labour in trouble

Stirling – 2nd – 25%
Labour seat, share 36%, swing – 10.9%
Another tough one especially as the LibDems were only 5% behind the Tories.

So on my count of the possible eleven gains you’ve identified only one is a good bet, three are unlikely and the remaining seven wishful thinking.

Oh and at the last election the Tories gained one and lost one so there record is actually 0,1,1 so they aren’t making any gains at every election.

Still on my take if you do go to two seats in 2010, you’ll be able to claim that the Tories had a massive success with 200% of the seats they previously held.

Peter.

In response to Mike Richardson and Phillip Thompson, as I understand it the constitutional position is that the Queen can dissolve Parliament whenever she likes. But actually she is constrained by convention which is ultimately upheld by what the public will accept. Charles I did not get away with the Divine Right of Kings!

Yhis from a supporter of a party who had it’s own prison wing the last time it was in power,it had so many jailed.

I give you Mr “Honesty” Archer,the man to lead London….OH I SAY!

I give you Mr”Swords of Truth” Aitken….OH I SAY!

ETC,ETC,ETC.