A new ComRes poll for Tuesday’s Independent has headline voting intention figures, with changes from last month, of CON 40% (-1), LAB 27% (-6), LDEM 18%(+2) and Others 14%.

The 13 point Conservative lead is the largest recorded for almost twenty years; in the unlikely event that such a whopping swing occured in a uniform fashion at a general election it would produce a Tory majority of 58. It is worth remembering however that ComRes do tend to have the most favourable weighting for the Conservatives (and for ‘others’) so we should expect them to report larger leads than companies like YouGov and ICM.

The changes in the topline figures match the general trends we’ve seen elsewhere. Labour are down sharply, the Liberal Democrats are up, benefiting either from the publicity of their leadership election or through Labour’s misfortune, the Conservative vote is down very slightly – the same as we saw with BPIX, rather than the sharp drop we saw with ICM. My instinct is that the ICM poll may be a rogue, that the actual picture is that the Conservatives are steady-ish, Labour are down significantly but the Lib Dems (and others) are the beneficaries of their troubles – that is just my own personal judgement through. We’ve still got YouGov to come this week, Populus early next week and an Ipsos MORI poll at some unspecified point, so we shouldn’t have a lack of polls to make judgements on.


108 Responses to “Tories 13 points ahead in ComRes poll”

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  1. We’re about to get a YouGov poll from the Daily Telegraph.

    Prof Anthony King describes it as ‘one of the most devastating I’ve ever seen.’ I wait with anticipation.

  2. Mike Richardson

    I can only assume that you make these off-topic contributions as a ‘wind-up’ but as I’ve mentioned in this thread before your comments are getting tedious.

    On more serious matters, I would expect the polls to be fairly bad for Labour well into 2008, especially if economic conditions are rocky. Extrapolating from the Chair of the Bank of England’s comments today we should expect some upturn in 2009 and this leads me to believe that the General Election could be pushed back to Spring 2010, though I imagine October 2009 is pencilled in at the moment. In the short term there’s going to be enormous attention to party funding issues and I would expect the Ashcroft problem to be raised soon, once the background boys and girls at Labour HQ have completed various investigations….mainly into Ashcroft’s ‘interesting’ domicile status. It will be fascinating to see how the polls react when the Tories get dragged into this. If the two main parties get mired in this issue then the Liberals and others could feature more strongly. Incidentally, I bet Vince Cable wishes
    he had stood given the excellent press he’s getting…..neither Huhne or Clegg would have delivered that line at PMQs yesterday to such effect.

  3. According to Iain Dale the YouGov figures are Con 43, Lab 32, LD 14. After the 13pt lead in Comm Res is this really so “devastating”??

  4. From Sky News: 43% CON, 32% LAB, 14% LIB

  5. David Bowtell you write rather naive comments about Ashcroft given his initiative to approach and disclose information to the Electoral Commission and get clearances from them. What is interesting is that the LibDem sleeze (biggest donationn !) is getting a lot more prominance now because it appears Cable and Huhne have overplayed their hand.

  6. SLAM

    You may know more detail on Ashcroft than me, but what I do know is that he lives in Belize most of the time and whilst we both know, no doubt, that UK residency qualification can be interpreted flexibly questions DO legitimately arise.

  7. SLAM/David – I don’t think we need a partisan discussion about whose donor is the sleaziest :)

  8. RodCrosby

    Thanks but neither, will work on my MacBook…..

    On the bright side, I’ve never had a virus….

    Peter.

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