Comments on: Sunday polls

By: Frank Timmins

Frank Timmins — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 23:01:56 +0000

For those that are gleeful at the Conservative 13% lead,the same party was 13% behind a only few months ago.

Don’t count your turkeys before Christmas arrives.

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 23:01:09 +0000

Collin – what Mark says. It was just a name change, but they have shifted their methodology a couple of times, most significantly in February when they made a major adjustment. Since Febuary their new weighting seems to be particularly favourable towards the Conservatives and ‘others’.

By: Andy D

Andy D — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 20:54:03 +0000

13% is the biggest Tory lead of any poll since August 1988.

By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 20:36:19 +0000

Looking at ICM, the one that stands out for scotland, is Cameron/Osbourne v Brown/Darling. Where as the Uk figure is 32% to 39%, a 7 point labour lead, the Scotland figure is 15% to 61%, about 4 to 1.

No I know it’s a small sample, but that can’t be a statistical error. When you look at the other questions on both Darling and Brown they still do better but by nothing like as much.

It’s hard not to draw the conclusion that Scotland still doesn’t trust the Tories. Whether that means that the SNP will be the focus of he antilabour vote, or that Scots will rally to Labour to prevent a Tory government is the question i don’t think we ca answer until we get a decent Scottish poll preferably one that asks the question outright.

” If there was a UK General Election, would the prospect of a Conservative Government make you more or less likely to vote for , Labour/SNP/Libdem”.

The answer to that could shape the electoral stategy of every party in Scotland.

Peter.

By: Mark Senior

Mark Senior — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 20:34:24 +0000

It was just a name change similar to British Telecommunications becoming BT . They did introduce substantial changes in their weighting with their Feb 2007 poll so polls before that date should not be considered as part of the same comparable series .