With all the main candidates in place last week saw the first proper poll on next year’s London mayoral election (there have been some previous polls, but these were from sources without a strong track record and pitted Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone against unnamed alternatives). The poll was conducted between the 7th-8th November (actually before Brian Paddick was selected, though the question named him as the Liberal Democrat candidate).
The YouGov poll for the London Policy Institute found Ken Livingstone ahead on 45%, Boris Johnson on 39% and Brian Paddick on 8%. These are very high shares of the vote for the two main parties compared to last time, no doubt because virtually no one has any idea of who the other candidates are for next May’s election. I expect they will drop in time – in 2004, around 18% of people voted for an “other” party using their first preference vote, in addition 15% voted for Simon Hughes. I strongly suspect Livingstone and Johnson will not be getting a combined share of the vote of 84%! Taking into account second preferences the final voting intention would be Livingstone 53%, Johnson 47%.
Neither of the past mayoral contests have produced a lot of polling, but what there was rarely showed anything but huge Livingstone leads. These are obviously far closer. In advance of next year’s elections I’ve added a London page to the election guide here.