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	<title>Comments on: Non-Election Day</title>
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	<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1063</link>
	<description>Opinion polling and political analysis</description>
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		<title>By: John T</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1063/comment-page-1#comment-260849</link>
		<dc:creator>John T</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Nov 2007 13:46:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1063#comment-260849</guid>
		<description>Colin - we have common ground at last! You are right that a more controlling watch over Northern Rock&#039;s business model would have prevented this, and the &quot;Tripartite system&quot; wasn&#039;t up to that task. 

The shareholders are mostly opposed to a sale because they know the discount to value which will be gained by the buyer at their expense.

The view I continue to hold is that a free-market Conservative chancellor would not have put a more watchful regime in place, and I believe would have allowed the depositors to continue to queue. Not that that would have led to NR collapsing - it&#039;s £100bn assets (mortgage book) prevent that even now - but a free-market approach wouldn&#039;t have improved things. 

It remains to be seen whether the BofE&#039;s reserves are permanently depleted by this - I think not; you think so, and I think we understand each other&#039;s view. In any event it&#039;s hard to imagine the deposits being used to credit anyone other than the depositors, so I think the taxpayer&#039;s fund is safe.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Colin &#8211; we have common ground at last! You are right that a more controlling watch over Northern Rock&#8217;s business model would have prevented this, and the &#8220;Tripartite system&#8221; wasn&#8217;t up to that task. </p>
<p>The shareholders are mostly opposed to a sale because they know the discount to value which will be gained by the buyer at their expense.</p>
<p>The view I continue to hold is that a free-market Conservative chancellor would not have put a more watchful regime in place, and I believe would have allowed the depositors to continue to queue. Not that that would have led to NR collapsing &#8211; it&#8217;s £100bn assets (mortgage book) prevent that even now &#8211; but a free-market approach wouldn&#8217;t have improved things. </p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether the BofE&#8217;s reserves are permanently depleted by this &#8211; I think not; you think so, and I think we understand each other&#8217;s view. In any event it&#8217;s hard to imagine the deposits being used to credit anyone other than the depositors, so I think the taxpayer&#8217;s fund is safe.</p>
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		<title>By: Colin</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1063/comment-page-1#comment-260814</link>
		<dc:creator>Colin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Nov 2007 12:33:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1063#comment-260814</guid>
		<description>John T

Northern Rock didn&#039;t convert to a Bank until 1997, when it was listed as a PLC...by 1999 it was quoted on FTSE100!!

Its growth rate was double that of the sector. None of it occurred under a Tory Government-all of it under the Tripartite regulation system introduced by Brown when he gave BoE independence.
The FSA is badly at fault here-presumably Darling will review this aspect  when he has offloaded NR&#039;s debt.

Yes I agree that shareholders should accept the risk associated with their reward levels. I think they will suffer badly in this case.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John T</p>
<p>Northern Rock didn&#8217;t convert to a Bank until 1997, when it was listed as a PLC&#8230;by 1999 it was quoted on FTSE100!!</p>
<p>Its growth rate was double that of the sector. None of it occurred under a Tory Government-all of it under the Tripartite regulation system introduced by Brown when he gave BoE independence.<br />
The FSA is badly at fault here-presumably Darling will review this aspect  when he has offloaded NR&#8217;s debt.</p>
<p>Yes I agree that shareholders should accept the risk associated with their reward levels. I think they will suffer badly in this case.</p>
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		<title>By: John T</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1063/comment-page-1#comment-260714</link>
		<dc:creator>John T</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Nov 2007 07:54:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1063#comment-260714</guid>
		<description>By the way, I accept that the Board is ultimately responsible. I suspect you don&#039;t have much sympathy with the shareholders, who should before investing ascertain what sort of business the company was involved in, and how it operated.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By the way, I accept that the Board is ultimately responsible. I suspect you don&#8217;t have much sympathy with the shareholders, who should before investing ascertain what sort of business the company was involved in, and how it operated.</p>
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		<title>By: John T</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1063/comment-page-1#comment-260712</link>
		<dc:creator>John T</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Nov 2007 07:52:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1063#comment-260712</guid>
		<description>The connection with Black Weds is in the decisiveness of the response.

NR&#039;s funding comes fromo wholesale money markets whose supply has disappeared along with the profits of the world&#039;s major banks. It is this approacjh to a banking collapse that has caused NR&#039;s problem, not profligate lending. NR relied almost entirely on borrowing to fund its lending, whereas others rely on depositors&#039; accounts more.

Only increased scrutiny by the Govt/Bank0f E, FSA could have prevented NR getting into trouble over this, but they would have had to take action many years ago to prevent over-reliance on wholesale money markets. That level of scrutiny and control is anathema to Tory ethos, and that&#039;s why Cameron is banging on about other matters and not this.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The connection with Black Weds is in the decisiveness of the response.</p>
<p>NR&#8217;s funding comes fromo wholesale money markets whose supply has disappeared along with the profits of the world&#8217;s major banks. It is this approacjh to a banking collapse that has caused NR&#8217;s problem, not profligate lending. NR relied almost entirely on borrowing to fund its lending, whereas others rely on depositors&#8217; accounts more.</p>
<p>Only increased scrutiny by the Govt/Bank0f E, FSA could have prevented NR getting into trouble over this, but they would have had to take action many years ago to prevent over-reliance on wholesale money markets. That level of scrutiny and control is anathema to Tory ethos, and that&#8217;s why Cameron is banging on about other matters and not this.</p>
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		<title>By: Colin</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1063/comment-page-1#comment-259611</link>
		<dc:creator>Colin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Nov 2007 18:03:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1063#comment-259611</guid>
		<description>John T

The Bank of England is wholly owned by the Government.

NR is not a &quot;going concern&quot;-it is technically insovent because it  cannot meet it&#039;s liabilities as they fall due.

The Banking system is not on the point of collapse.

Northern Rock&#039;s generally criticised business model( excessive use of short term money market funding/100% plus mortgage loans/6x multiples/higher than average deposit rates)  should have alerted the FSA ,to whom GB transferred banking regulation , when NRs market share &amp; growth rocketed.

 As we now know from the Select Committee hearings, FSA&#039;s Chairman admitted they didn&#039;t even follow NRs accounts. 

When asked at the Parliamentary hearing about (GBs) Tripartite structure of National financial surveilance &amp; regulation -&quot;who is in charge?&quot;-the Governor of BoE replied that he didn&#039;t understand the question.

Whose is responsible for that shambles-you tell me?

NR most certainly are at fault  for their failure -their board bears full responsibility.

THe Government designed the Tripartite regulation system &amp; it failed in the first crisis it encountered.The result is that the Government is funding -in cash-to the tune of some billions of pounds, a mortgage company which it must now engineer a sale for in order to retrieve it&#039;s loan and avoid honouring it&#039;s guarantee to repay all depositors ( those that are left that is !!)

I can see little connection between this failure of Banking Regulation , and Black Wednesday. The latter was a prime example of the dangers inherent in a &quot;one size fits all&quot; interest rate/exchange rate policy applied to a bunch of disparate sovereign nation states.

I have no doubt that whilst it features highly  in Labour&#039;s  catalogue of &quot;bad things the Conservatives have done&quot; it featured equally highly in Brown&#039;s determination to keep UK out of the Euro.

The cost of Black Wednesday is estimated by The Treasury at £3.4 bn in 1992 .Following UK&#039;s withdrawal from ERM the performance of it&#039;s economy has been significantly stronger than that of the Eurozone , despite the damage caused to the economy in the short term.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John T</p>
<p>The Bank of England is wholly owned by the Government.</p>
<p>NR is not a &#8220;going concern&#8221;-it is technically insovent because it  cannot meet it&#8217;s liabilities as they fall due.</p>
<p>The Banking system is not on the point of collapse.</p>
<p>Northern Rock&#8217;s generally criticised business model( excessive use of short term money market funding/100% plus mortgage loans/6x multiples/higher than average deposit rates)  should have alerted the FSA ,to whom GB transferred banking regulation , when NRs market share &amp; growth rocketed.</p>
<p> As we now know from the Select Committee hearings, FSA&#8217;s Chairman admitted they didn&#8217;t even follow NRs accounts. </p>
<p>When asked at the Parliamentary hearing about (GBs) Tripartite structure of National financial surveilance &amp; regulation -&#8221;who is in charge?&#8221;-the Governor of BoE replied that he didn&#8217;t understand the question.</p>
<p>Whose is responsible for that shambles-you tell me?</p>
<p>NR most certainly are at fault  for their failure -their board bears full responsibility.</p>
<p>THe Government designed the Tripartite regulation system &amp; it failed in the first crisis it encountered.The result is that the Government is funding -in cash-to the tune of some billions of pounds, a mortgage company which it must now engineer a sale for in order to retrieve it&#8217;s loan and avoid honouring it&#8217;s guarantee to repay all depositors ( those that are left that is !!)</p>
<p>I can see little connection between this failure of Banking Regulation , and Black Wednesday. The latter was a prime example of the dangers inherent in a &#8220;one size fits all&#8221; interest rate/exchange rate policy applied to a bunch of disparate sovereign nation states.</p>
<p>I have no doubt that whilst it features highly  in Labour&#8217;s  catalogue of &#8220;bad things the Conservatives have done&#8221; it featured equally highly in Brown&#8217;s determination to keep UK out of the Euro.</p>
<p>The cost of Black Wednesday is estimated by The Treasury at £3.4 bn in 1992 .Following UK&#8217;s withdrawal from ERM the performance of it&#8217;s economy has been significantly stronger than that of the Eurozone , despite the damage caused to the economy in the short term.</p>
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