Comments on: Labour back ahead with MORI http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1060 Opinion polling and political analysis Sat, 11 Feb 2012 20:49:12 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1060/comment-page-2#comment-256902 Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) Mon, 29 Oct 2007 21:18:49 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1060#comment-256902 Andt, It will be intersting to see the ComRes figures for Scotland, as in Sept they had the SNP very close on the mid to high twenties, but more interestingly they had the SNP voters on a very high likelyhood to vote. ( near 90% as opposed to labour on about 65%). I am not sure if we can get our vote out like that and if not the scores we are getting might be artifically boosted, although I don't know about by how much. Peter. Andt,

It will be intersting to see the ComRes figures for Scotland, as in Sept they had the SNP very close on the mid to high twenties, but more interestingly they had the SNP voters on a very high likelyhood to vote. ( near 90% as opposed to labour on about 65%).

I am not sure if we can get our vote out like that and if not the scores we are getting might be artifically boosted, although I don’t know about by how much.

Peter.

]]> By: Andy D http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1060/comment-page-2#comment-256888 Andy D Mon, 29 Oct 2007 20:49:46 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1060#comment-256888 ComRes is about to put Conservatives on 41%, Labour 33%, LibDems 16%. A Tory lead of 8%. ComRes is about to put Conservatives on 41%, Labour 33%, LibDems 16%. A Tory lead of 8%.

]]> By: Derek http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1060/comment-page-2#comment-256879 Derek Mon, 29 Oct 2007 20:34:18 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1060#comment-256879 Well, in any case: "ComRes for the Independent tomorrow has the Tories eight points ahead of Labour - 41 to 33 per cent - with the Lib Dems on 16pc. This would apparently be enough to give Prime Minister Dave a two-seat majority." from http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/10/more-good-news-.html Well, in any case:

“ComRes for the Independent tomorrow has the Tories eight points ahead of Labour – 41 to 33 per cent – with the Lib Dems on 16pc. This would apparently be enough to give Prime Minister Dave a two-seat majority.”

from
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/10/more-good-news-.html

]]> By: Joe James Broughton http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1060/comment-page-2#comment-256874 Joe James Broughton Mon, 29 Oct 2007 20:24:01 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1060#comment-256874 Peter Cairns makes interesting points. I certainly very much hope both main parties reach 40 per cent or more in the next General Election. It will be a predominantly two party fight, although the number of small parties makes 80+ a tall order, but possible. Peter Cairns makes interesting points.

I certainly very much hope both main parties reach 40 per cent or more in the next General Election.

It will be a predominantly two party fight, although the number of small parties makes 80+ a tall order, but possible.

]]> By: Mark Senior http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1060/comment-page-2#comment-256852 Mark Senior Mon, 29 Oct 2007 19:42:55 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1060#comment-256852 We political anoraks tend to make one very bad assumption which is that the majority of voters think about politics as or nearly as often as we do . Unfortunately this is very untrue , unless they are seriously upset by a particular issue , they rarely give a thought to politicsfromday to day . This is why an opinion pollster getting through to anapathetic voter in the middle of changeing baby's nappy or watching Coronation Street will get a top of the head answer to who they will vote for in an election that will not happen for some considerable time . The commited voter will give his normal answer but the floater/non commited will tend to side with flavour of the moment . This is what we saw particularly in the conference season . There are many who believe that the next GE will see a higher turnout with an expected close fight between Labour and the Conservatives . I disagree , the Mori absolutely certain to vote % of 52% is the same as it was in 2003/2004 and unless the Labour government upset voters enough to make them determined to kick them out I think it likely that turnout at the next GE will be similar to the last . We political anoraks tend to make one very bad assumption which is that the majority of voters think about politics as or nearly as often as we do . Unfortunately this is very untrue , unless they are seriously upset by a particular issue , they rarely give a thought to politicsfromday to day . This is why an opinion pollster getting through to anapathetic voter in the middle of changeing baby’s nappy or watching Coronation Street will get a top of the head answer to who they will vote for in an election that will not happen for some considerable time . The commited voter will give his normal answer but the floater/non commited will tend to side with flavour of the moment . This is what we saw particularly in the conference season .
There are many who believe that the next GE will see a higher turnout with an expected close fight between Labour and the Conservatives . I disagree , the Mori absolutely certain to vote % of 52% is the same as it was in 2003/2004 and unless the Labour government upset voters enough to make them determined to kick them out I think it likely that turnout at the next GE will be similar to the last .

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