Comments on: Labour back ahead with MORI

By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 21:18:49 +0000

Andt,

It will be intersting to see the ComRes figures for Scotland, as in Sept they had the SNP very close on the mid to high twenties, but more interestingly they had the SNP voters on a very high likelyhood to vote. ( near 90% as opposed to labour on about 65%).

I am not sure if we can get our vote out like that and if not the scores we are getting might be artifically boosted, although I don’t know about by how much.

Peter.

By: Andy D

Andy D — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 20:49:46 +0000

ComRes is about to put Conservatives on 41%, Labour 33%, LibDems 16%. A Tory lead of 8%.

By: Derek

Derek — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 20:34:18 +0000

Well, in any case:

“ComRes for the Independent tomorrow has the Tories eight points ahead of Labour – 41 to 33 per cent – with the Lib Dems on 16pc. This would apparently be enough to give Prime Minister Dave a two-seat majority.”

from
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/10/more-good-news-.html

By: Joe James Broughton

Joe James Broughton — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 20:24:01 +0000

Peter Cairns makes interesting points.

I certainly very much hope both main parties reach 40 per cent or more in the next General Election.

It will be a predominantly two party fight, although the number of small parties makes 80+ a tall order, but possible.

By: Mark Senior

Mark Senior — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 19:42:55 +0000

We political anoraks tend to make one very bad assumption which is that the majority of voters think about politics as or nearly as often as we do . Unfortunately this is very untrue , unless they are seriously upset by a particular issue , they rarely give a thought to politicsfromday to day . This is why an opinion pollster getting through to anapathetic voter in the middle of changeing baby’s nappy or watching Coronation Street will get a top of the head answer to who they will vote for in an election that will not happen for some considerable time . The commited voter will give his normal answer but the floater/non commited will tend to side with flavour of the moment . This is what we saw particularly in the conference season .
There are many who believe that the next GE will see a higher turnout with an expected close fight between Labour and the Conservatives . I disagree , the Mori absolutely certain to vote % of 52% is the same as it was in 2003/2004 and unless the Labour government upset voters enough to make them determined to kick them out I think it likely that turnout at the next GE will be similar to the last .

By: Richard (Wilmslow)

Richard (Wilmslow) — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 19:36:09 +0000

Re my earlier post, I meant unprecedented for Labour, of course meaning after being in power for any real length of time (I know this is the longest single stint before anyone reminds me!):)

It seems the Lib’s have lost around 4% to the Tories – I bet they claw it back when they appoint a new leader, particularly if it’s Clegg, then all will be returned to normal,

By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 19:08:05 +0000

Joe James Broughton/Sean Fear,

The assumption that you are both making is that things continue on trend and that there is a trend. I am not saying your wrong, but it is possible that voters may go back to the big two, in a close winner takes all presidential style election.

There seems to be an acceptance that turnout is falling and that the strength of the two main parties is diminishing, but it could be a blip as opposed to a trend.

There is strong evidence that peoples party allegiences are weakening and they are more inclined to switch parties or try something different, but that in no way implies that it’s a one way street.

It’s not unconceivable that a population with less fixed views might choose in an election to back the big two. Having moved to the SNP/UKIP/BNP/Greens in the past they could make an equally rational (for them) choice to move back.

I remember a decade or so there was a lot of talk in the US with the likes of Ross Perot about the emergence of a challenge to the Democrats and Republicans from Independants and third parties, but what some thought was a trend turned out to be a flash in the pan.

If I had to put money on it I’d agree with you, but we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of a sea change for this election anyway.

If it is about a change in governement where either could win a lot of people might want to use there vote to make an impact.

Peter.

By: Joe James Broughton

Joe James Broughton — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 16:16:07 +0000

It would be difficult for Conservatives and Labour to achieve 40 per cent at the same time because of the number of smaller parties which are all doing reasonably well – SNP, Greens, BNP, and possible Pl C and UKIP.
This is likely to account for about 8 per cent within Great Britain, and could rise to around 10pc.

Both parties reached 78pc within GB in 1992 – that is a fairly high figure for the number of parties we have nowadays. One also should remember the Liberals only contested about 250 seats in 1970 and left about 100 uncontested even in February 1974. If they had fought a full slate in Feb 74 their national vote would probably have been about 24pc rather than just under 20pc.

By: John H

John H — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 16:11:30 +0000

One swallow doesn’t make a spring. This poll needs to be treated with a sea of salt. We are in tenuous territory nowadays. We shall swing right into the 08s and Leap Year! Which party will leap longest?

By: David Bowtell

David Bowtell — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 16:03:47 +0000

Just seen that Electoral Calculus have changed their model to deal with the unrealistic Liberal outcomes on their early October run. Having looked at the EC current prediction and tried out one or two options of my own it does look better.