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	<title>Comments on: October Populus poll</title>
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	<description>Opinion polling and political analysis</description>
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		<title>By: Cllr Peter Cairns</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1053/comment-page-3#comment-245168</link>
		<dc:creator>Cllr Peter Cairns</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Oct 2007 03:02:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1053#comment-245168</guid>
		<description>The LibDems are not only being squeezed by the competition by the big two, but also ideologically. 

Firstly both Brown and Cameron have been cherry picking LibDem ideas, and secondly by pitching for each others core support both have been appealing to LibDems supporters even if they are not the primary target.

Thus we have Brown Talking about constitutional reform while Cameron is opposing ID cards.

None of this has been helped by the debates within the LibDems which over the last year has seen them turn away from a 50% higher tax band and increased tax thresholds, to help the lowest paid, to a 4% cut in the basic rate, which doesn&#039;t help the lowest paid at all.

While the LibDems did well for two parliaments portraying themselves as the party of principle they now seem to be opposed to those very principles. 

In trying to be different from Labour and the Tories I think they have actually come across as confused, sort of we stand for not being either of them and if they pinch our policies then we will change policy.

Peter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The LibDems are not only being squeezed by the competition by the big two, but also ideologically. </p>
<p>Firstly both Brown and Cameron have been cherry picking LibDem ideas, and secondly by pitching for each others core support both have been appealing to LibDems supporters even if they are not the primary target.</p>
<p>Thus we have Brown Talking about constitutional reform while Cameron is opposing ID cards.</p>
<p>None of this has been helped by the debates within the LibDems which over the last year has seen them turn away from a 50% higher tax band and increased tax thresholds, to help the lowest paid, to a 4% cut in the basic rate, which doesn&#8217;t help the lowest paid at all.</p>
<p>While the LibDems did well for two parliaments portraying themselves as the party of principle they now seem to be opposed to those very principles. </p>
<p>In trying to be different from Labour and the Tories I think they have actually come across as confused, sort of we stand for not being either of them and if they pinch our policies then we will change policy.</p>
<p>Peter.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul H-J</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1053/comment-page-3#comment-244918</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H-J</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Oct 2007 21:30:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1053#comment-244918</guid>
		<description>Oops, lost a bit there..

Huhne&#039;s majority in Eastleigh is in 100s, so he is very vulnerable, and even the higher profile of leadership may not save him - especially as he would not be able to devote the time to his own seat which such a marginal needs - ask Chris Patten !

It would be better for LDs to sit tight and hope for a recovery in polls by May, when they nomally do better in council elections than their Westminster poll ratings. If however they suffer serious losses in councils/seats, then it may be time to change down a generation since Ming will appear very old by 2010.

On the other hand, dumping Ming in advance of the Council elections would smack of panic, and may not save enough councillors, leaving the new leader off to a bad start.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oops, lost a bit there..</p>
<p>Huhne&#8217;s majority in Eastleigh is in 100s, so he is very vulnerable, and even the higher profile of leadership may not save him &#8211; especially as he would not be able to devote the time to his own seat which such a marginal needs &#8211; ask Chris Patten !</p>
<p>It would be better for LDs to sit tight and hope for a recovery in polls by May, when they nomally do better in council elections than their Westminster poll ratings. If however they suffer serious losses in councils/seats, then it may be time to change down a generation since Ming will appear very old by 2010.</p>
<p>On the other hand, dumping Ming in advance of the Council elections would smack of panic, and may not save enough councillors, leaving the new leader off to a bad start.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul H-J</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1053/comment-page-3#comment-244906</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H-J</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Oct 2007 21:21:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1053#comment-244906</guid>
		<description>After several polls with LDs not even making the teens, the speculation about Ming&#039;s future has started in the media - not just amongst we anoraks.

However, my own (objecive) view is that their low rating is not in fact a reflection on Ming but a side effect of the current Lab/Con competitiveness. Historically, LDs have always picked up a few points during the campaign, generally more from Labour than Con. In 1997 and 2001 they also gained significantly from anti-tory tactical voting. Ironically, given that, their best ever result in 2005 (in terms of seats won) was driven by anti-labour swings due to Iraq, and they actually made net losses to Con.

With Conservatives resurgent - even if not yet heading for overall majority, the LDs are very likely to lose many seats taken from Con in 1997  or since - possibly as many as 40. The real issue for the party however, is whether they can hold the seats they took off labour in 2005, let alone win more, if Labour share falls back to mid 30s.

Changing the leader may give them some media coverage, but will not impact the underlying logic, so could actually rebound on them. There is also a potential hostage to fortune should they select Chris Huhne, since his seat is not exactly secure (maj </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After several polls with LDs not even making the teens, the speculation about Ming&#8217;s future has started in the media &#8211; not just amongst we anoraks.</p>
<p>However, my own (objecive) view is that their low rating is not in fact a reflection on Ming but a side effect of the current Lab/Con competitiveness. Historically, LDs have always picked up a few points during the campaign, generally more from Labour than Con. In 1997 and 2001 they also gained significantly from anti-tory tactical voting. Ironically, given that, their best ever result in 2005 (in terms of seats won) was driven by anti-labour swings due to Iraq, and they actually made net losses to Con.</p>
<p>With Conservatives resurgent &#8211; even if not yet heading for overall majority, the LDs are very likely to lose many seats taken from Con in 1997  or since &#8211; possibly as many as 40. The real issue for the party however, is whether they can hold the seats they took off labour in 2005, let alone win more, if Labour share falls back to mid 30s.</p>
<p>Changing the leader may give them some media coverage, but will not impact the underlying logic, so could actually rebound on them. There is also a potential hostage to fortune should they select Chris Huhne, since his seat is not exactly secure (maj</p>
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		<title>By: Cllr Peter Cairns</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1053/comment-page-3#comment-244862</link>
		<dc:creator>Cllr Peter Cairns</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Oct 2007 20:22:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1053#comment-244862</guid>
		<description>Anthony,

Still no sign of the SNP poll on the YouGov polls section. 

I thought that as the SNP had released some of the results to the press, that under the guidelines, it would appear on the YouGov site.

It may just be late, but I&#039;d have thought it would be up by now.

Peter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anthony,</p>
<p>Still no sign of the SNP poll on the YouGov polls section. </p>
<p>I thought that as the SNP had released some of the results to the press, that under the guidelines, it would appear on the YouGov site.</p>
<p>It may just be late, but I&#8217;d have thought it would be up by now.</p>
<p>Peter.</p>
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		<title>By: Adam 8</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1053/comment-page-3#comment-244509</link>
		<dc:creator>Adam 8</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Oct 2007 09:41:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1053#comment-244509</guid>
		<description>Dave It&#039;s obvious which side of the fence you sit, the way you expertly try and defend a position.

Here is a reality check

Did Gordon Brown allow election speculation to rise and rise in the hope the polling would allow him to go to the country.

spin answer: NO. real answer yes.

Would Gordon Brown have gone to the country
if he new he could win a 100 seat majority.

Spin answer No. real answer yes.

Have promised to make announcements to the house first and then making a phony statement on troop withdrawels in Con party conference, was it deliberate?

Spin Answer No. Real Answer Yes

2. Did Alastair Darlng increase have any plans to say anything about IHT in the CSR until the Con announcement and the realisation their is votes in it.

spin answer: Yes all along real answer No. 

3. Having said they would tax Non Doms in 1994 and then done nothing, was it all chance that after the Con proposal, Labour followed suit immediately.

spin answer: NO of course not. Real answer Yes

4. Did Alastair Darling propose a ‘flight tax’ on airlines?

spin answer: YES real answer No

Is Gordon Brown Vision to abandon Social democracy and just implement Popular Tory ideas.


Spin answer No. real answer Yes

I have very personal [indeed, partisan] opinions on all  points. Here is an alternative perspective to your very Partisan comments. As Anthony warned if you are that Partisan, you will incite response.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dave It&#8217;s obvious which side of the fence you sit, the way you expertly try and defend a position.</p>
<p>Here is a reality check</p>
<p>Did Gordon Brown allow election speculation to rise and rise in the hope the polling would allow him to go to the country.</p>
<p>spin answer: NO. real answer yes.</p>
<p>Would Gordon Brown have gone to the country<br />
if he new he could win a 100 seat majority.</p>
<p>Spin answer No. real answer yes.</p>
<p>Have promised to make announcements to the house first and then making a phony statement on troop withdrawels in Con party conference, was it deliberate?</p>
<p>Spin Answer No. Real Answer Yes</p>
<p>2. Did Alastair Darlng increase have any plans to say anything about IHT in the CSR until the Con announcement and the realisation their is votes in it.</p>
<p>spin answer: Yes all along real answer No. </p>
<p>3. Having said they would tax Non Doms in 1994 and then done nothing, was it all chance that after the Con proposal, Labour followed suit immediately.</p>
<p>spin answer: NO of course not. Real answer Yes</p>
<p>4. Did Alastair Darling propose a ‘flight tax’ on airlines?</p>
<p>spin answer: YES real answer No</p>
<p>Is Gordon Brown Vision to abandon Social democracy and just implement Popular Tory ideas.</p>
<p>Spin answer No. real answer Yes</p>
<p>I have very personal [indeed, partisan] opinions on all  points. Here is an alternative perspective to your very Partisan comments. As Anthony warned if you are that Partisan, you will incite response.</p>
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