The full tables from YouGov’s Sunday Times poll are now up on the Sunday Times website. It leaves us in no doubt why Gordon Brown chose not to go to the country, the headline figures showing a Conservative lead of 3 points would resulted in Brown losing his majority, but YouGov do not factor in likelihood to vote which it’s generally thought you have been a big factor in a November poll. The detailled tables have breaks of only those certain to vote, which would have produced shares of CON 45%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%. These are not realistic figures, the turnout filter too tight, but it does show how a low winter turnout could have made the situation even worse for Brown.

Gordon Brown’s net rating on whether he is doing a good job as Prime Minister has dropped to plus 30 from plus 39 last time it was asked. David Cameron’s is transformed, up to plus 20 from minus 15.

Showed a list of words and asked which ones applied to David Cameron and Gordon Brown, Brown still has a more positive all round image. 40% think he is strong, 37% decisive, 40% think he sticks to what he believes in. The only measures where Cameron outscores Brown are Charismatic (34% compared to Brown’s 7%) and ‘in touch with the concerns of ordinary people’ (23% compared to Brown’s 20%).

It remains to be seen how perceptions of Brown change in the light of his decision not to call an election and the vicious reception it has recieved in the press. 43% of respondents told YouGov that they thought it would be a sign of weakness if Brown didn’t call an election but, as we’ve seen before, people are not necessarily very good at predicting how they’ll react to events in the future.

THe other questions give a picture of the parties as pretty evenly matched – Brown is seen as more trustworthy than Cameron, Cameron has a more optmistic and forward-looking vision for Britain, the Conservatives are seen as both likely to do more to support the family and more to raise peoples quality of life by marginally more people than Labour.

66% of respondens thought the Conservative’s plans to raise the threshhold for inheritance tax was a good policy, 79% approved of their plans to take most first time buyers out of stamp duty. Combined they have once again put the Conservatives as the preferred party on taxation – along with the traditional Tory issues of crime and immigration they also again lead on Europe, with Labour remaining ahead elsewhere.

The tax pledges are not an unadulterated success for the Tories though, 32% of people think their sums don’t add up, with only 22% confident that they all square. Despite the fact that the Conservatives have not pledged to reduce the overall tax burden – the pledges were based on extra taxes elsewhere – 27% of people think that a Conservative government would mean lower taxes than a Labour government. 13% think a Conservative government would mean higher taxes.


55 Responses to “More from the Sunday Times YouGov poll”

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  1. Luke W – As I said just after the Labour Conference, if there weren’t to be an election,(admittedly I thought it was nailed on)the polls that matter will be the ones that appear after the conference season. Namely the next two weekends. By which time there is no chance of an election anyway.

    The big winners amongst all of this are the Pollsters who currently are being inundated by the different papers for their fieldwork.

  2. I agree, but the one thing we can conclude with certainty is that public opinion is extremely voliile at the moment and is apt to large sea changes when someone has a good stint in front of the camera. It is when the polls stabilise- if they stabilise – that we get an idea of the new political landscape- although we have already learned that an erratic and volitile public opinion will probably form a backdrop to it.

  3. GARY GATTER :-

    I am not a naughty boy at all – just a minor adjustment 2 weeks ago to include the 1st week of October / but i still maintained over the whole 3 months that there would be no election before 2010 .

    I think your prediction skills are not as good as mine Gary with all due respect – if you think that the POLLS will shift back to 33% Tory and 39% Labour / I predict very similar POLLING for both parties around the high 30’s for a couple of weeks – by Christmas Labour will be flagging as the media lay into them on every policy they come up with . NOTE MY PREDICTIONS .

    You have to take into consideration the underlying question from the last POLL – where it gave the Tories 45% to Labour’s 36% of those who will actually vote / there is a growing tide of people who really do think it’s time for a change .

    The Labour pop song “Things Can Only Get Better” certainl was’nt true – let’s see how realistic the Conservative pop song becomes over the next 2 years – “You Can Get It , If You Really Want”

  4. All the current POLLS and the share of them that are going to Labour and the Tories are straight off the back of the Liberals – something has to give shortly . Many of those Liberal %’s will drift back and forward – meaning very little till an actual election .

    If I was either main party i would’nt pay too much attention to them until you see the changes coming directly from one to the other – which has’nt happened yet – it’s all off the back of the Liberals

  5. How about, “You don’t always get what you want”?

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