YouGov show the Conservatives back ahead
When I reported the YouGov poll following Gordon Brown’s speech I cautioned that it a snap poll taken right after the speech and it would probably fall back – a couple of days later the 11 point lead it showed was confirmed in a normal poll. On Thursday I again cautioned that the Tory increase was in a snap poll and the immediate Conservative boost would probably decline…and again it hasn’t. In fact it has grown.
A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has voting intentions, with changes from YouGov’s snap midweek poll for Channel 4, of CON 41%(+5), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 11%(-2). The changes from the last full size YouGov poll a week ago are a stunning plus 9 points for the Conservatives, minus 5 for Labour and minus 4 for the Liberal Democrats.
This is the first time YouGov (or indeed any pollster) have shown a Conservative lead since June, the highest Conservative share they’ve ever shown (and highest of anyone since 1992). The last time I can find that the Liberal Democrats sank this low was in 2001. There is no longer the possibility of an imminent election of course, but were these figures repeated at a general election it would produce a severely hung Parliament – CON 296, LAB 316, LDEM 12 – even Labour and the Liberal Democrats together would have a majority of only 6.
It’s always a good rule of thumb to be extra sceptical about polls that show big shifts of opinon (there is a statistical ‘law’ called Twyman’s Law that runs along the same lines – “Any figure that looks interesting or different is usually wrong.”). Until we see some more polls backing up these findings it may just turn out to be a blip. There is support though in a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday that has figures of CON 39%(+5), LAB 38%(-3), LDEM 12%(nc).
The further increase in Conservative support is plausible – most of the fieldwork for the YouGov poll in the week would have been completed before the newspapers had reported Cameron’s speech (ICM’s whose fieldwork would have included a greater proportion of interviews from Thursday had the parties neck and neck) and the media narrative since the party conference has been working in the Conservatives favour.
Then there is the question of the Liberal Democrats – it is clear that they have been savagely squeezed out by a Labour party revived by Gordon Brown and a Conservative party that has pulled itself together in the face of a possible election. I find it hard to believe that they won’t recover from this level, but with figures this low there must come a point where they need to address their situation.
Normally with a big shift in the polls like this I would say wait to the next polls to see if the changes are confirmed – in this case I’d be surprised if they weren’t even if this poll is a blip. The media reaction to Gordon Brown’s decision not to call an election shows every sign of being savage and I would be surprised if they didn’t suffer further in the polls. With no election in the offing though, the most interesting thing to watch in the coming weeks will not be voting intention but how attitudes to Gordon Brown change. At the moment he has a repution of being strong, tough and competent – will the decision not to have an election change that? We will see.
Filed under: BPIX, Voting Intention, YouGov
These things can only be expected when the press and media gives Cameron a free pass.
Dave Hawk – Yes, nasty old media, eh? It’s all their fault.
Strange how some posters seemed to have reappeared from a three week holiday.Must have all holidayed together.
BBC Radio 4 10 o’clock news just reported that Brown said there wouldn’t be an election in 2008 except in extraordinary circumstances. Is that new?
No, it did come out at the same time as the main announcement, it just got overshadowed a bit.
The “it’s all the media’s fault”accusation seems to have really upset Adam Boulton on Sky.
He says that Brown’s “team & ministers” were briefing him ( and others in the press) during the Labour Conference that they were gearing up for an election.Boulton says he explicitly asked Brown to say there would be no election & Brown declined to do so.
He said that Labour intended to crush the Conservatives-this was nothing to do with mandates or the interests of the country-and when the Tories fought back Brown gave in, and tried to justify it all in a “shoddy interview behind closed doors” whilst Cameron & Ming came out to meet the Press in person.
Brown has totally destroyed his credibility with the Press-apparently in the Marr interview he says the problems with the Electoral Register were a problem-he really should stop treating people like complete idiots-its not the way to get votes.
All the same I would rather see LDs up 8 points & Labour down by the same !!
A seven point swing Lab -> Con in a week is unusual. Doubtless Labour were never 11 points ahead and the Tories maybe not 3 points ahead. It will be interesting to see whether, when the polls settle down, they fall a) somewhere near level pegging, b) a resumption of the “Brown bounce” or c) the momentum starys with the Tories and they restore the lead they held prior to Brown’s coronation
It’s the free pass I find objectionable, that’s all.
Hawk – you have got to be joking.
Not at all. When it comes to politics I don’t joke.
It seems clear that he media have an influence over the polls, (and always have “it woz the sun wot won it??”) I’m with Malcolm Rifkind (second time ever!) in that whatever the mudslinging, or opportunism by Brown or his opponents, this proposed election was a constitutionally wrong idea. Now is the best time for calm reflection on differences in policy. A weakening of the “clunking fist”? No bad thing for our country in my view, and (to rremain within the spirit of this site) it means we can continue with sensible debate about how the differences have impact without the gung-ho, playground-style side-taking that I haave so much fun ridiculing on lesser sites than this! Having said that, I can’t wait for the next”ticking clock” to kick off!
Mr Hawk, if Cameron has gotten favorable press in the last few days it is because his party recently held a good, united conference and he gave a very well-received closing speech.
I saw Robin Aitken interviewed once, where he said that in a BBC meeting room of 10 people, you would find not one Tory. If there were 20 people, there might be one, but he would keep his views to himself if he cared about his career prospects. Any insinuation that the BBC is pro – or even neutral – towards the Tories is bonkers. I’m less familiar with the other UK tv news cahnnels (I’m in NY), but the BBC stance is of course most important because of its size, reach and coercive fee.
Anthony you wrote: “CON 296, LAB 316, LDEM 12 – even Labour and the Liberal Democrats together would have a majority of only 6.”> For me LAB+LDEM=328, i.e. a majority of 32. Is it me or there is a typo?
Well, I am affraid I, and a lot of others who predicted a lot of egg on Labour faces who were crowing about the unassailability of their man and their lead. I would go as far as to say scrambled eggs.
I think the media will (rightly, in my view) give Brown a horrible kicking for this endless election speculation before getting cold feet all of a sudden and the Labour figures will dip to the lower 30s and the Libs will climb to the mid to high teens, with the Tories staying around 40%. I think is unlikely that the Tory share will increace too much more.
After a few months, I wouldn’t want to speculate, but as I said the tables have turned once and they might well turn again the other way, such is the volitility of public opinion. The true thing is, however, is that the trough of Labour support has them a few points behind, whereas the trough of Tory support has them far further behind.
The one long term impact of all this is that the Tory conference has given them a chance again. It’s ended Brown’s honeymoon and put them back in the game. In purely party political terms, this Tory comeback after conference is one of the most impressive coups ever seen. An opposition with its head on the block has caused a sea change in public opinion in a few days. Governments might have done this before, but I don’t think an opposition ever has.
In responce to the ‘free pass’ argument I think Cameron has had a few days favorable media coverage, and Brown had a couple of months! I also think you’ll find the Guardian and the Mirror were as hostile as ever to Cameron. Over the last few months, really only the Telegraph had been anti-Brown (and that only as a readership of 800,000 anyway).
Mr Piper,
Labour had a good united conference and Brown gave a respectable enough speech in which he transcended petty partisanship and in which he made no disparaging cheap shots at the opposiiton parties and their leaders. Brown isn’t an orator. Speaks with sincerity rather than some overwhelming passion. Labour seems to be genuinely united (we have a few malcontents on this and that); while the Tories papered over the cracks because they knew, behind in the polls that they were, that it was best interests that they did. Must admit I was disappointed there wasn’t any bloodletting. Might have been reassured that the party was genuinely ‘changing’ had there been. Labour’s ‘modernising’, after all, was at times often acrimonious, very public and rather protracted but the party came out of it stronger.
Still, it’s mission accomplished for Mr Cameron. There’ll be no snap election. In all seriousness, I don’t think any of the three parties were ready for one. Lots of candidates yet to be in place, for a start.
It’s Dave, not Mr. Hawk. Hawk is but pseudonym, which reflects that I may be something of a neocon. No seriously, I’m slightly centre-left (a fiery populist when I need to be), which explains why I’ve found my home in the Labour Party. Each to their own.
Vonric: “For me LAB+LDEM=328, i.e. a majority of 32. Is it me or there is a typo?”
Eh? Think you’re mistaken over the total number of MPs: A majority of 1 requires 325 seats. 328 would indeed = majority of 6.
But anyway, where do those figures come from? Baxter? That’s remarkably unreliable for the LDems. I can not see the LDems going down to remotely anything like 12. If they did, that would be big news.
I don’t want to become partisan on this news, but the “free pass” idea is very amusing. Cameron has had anything but that over the last few months and it one week does this then a few more “passes” would be nice. The media does not work like that, they POV at the start of the week: if they could report on divisions etc, they would have. If anything Brown had quite an easy pass for the first few months and the danger for him now is that as Anthony often says, the poll results feed into how people act rather reflecting it. Now the shine has been taken off Brown, the “honeymoon” is likely over.
PS I do recall a certain user saying they would “eat their metaphorical hat” if they position changed by 10 points following Cameron’s speech. 9 up for the Tories, 14 point turnaround altogether, that good enough?
Dave Hawk, Brown’s speech was not respectable. It went down so at first, but then it quickly became clear it was a plagiarised copy of what American Dems had already said. Whatever the jokes, integrity is an issue still in politics thankfully and Brown flunked that. To make a plagiarised copy of others speeches and call it “sincerity” reveals precisely why Brown has suffered so much in the last week. Revealing insincerity masked as sincerity pulls the rug from under him and thus the polls have reacted sharply.
Luke,
Compared to Neil Kinnock, Cameron hasn’t faired too badly, IMHO, since becoming leader of the Conservative Party. Kinnock was persecuted relentlessly by much of the press. And no one could ever deny that he was a man, who worked to sincerely change his party.
That speech of his denouncing Militant at the 1985 Labour Party conference stiffened my sinews as much as anything I’ve heard in my life. Won an ecstatic reception from much of the floor, along with jeers from Derek Hatton et al and Eric Heffer MP storming off the platform. I wasn’t committed Labour back then, felt it still had some way to go.
I initially liked Cameron but on a political level his rehabilitation of John Redwood changed that while one or two things since that has seen me dislike him personally. Many of my kin were Conservatives in the ‘One Nation’ tradition; great-grandfather, several great aunts and uncles and their families. A few of of whom ceased to be Conservatives because ‘neo-liberalism’ never wrested that well on their social consciences.
I think Brown has been clever here. He’s smoked out some of the Conservative policies for an election in the next 12 months or so, so they can be scrutinised properly ready for the real thing.
Dave-
I certainly agree that Kinnock had a terrible time in the press (from what I know, I was a wee boy at the time)and also Hague didn’t get much better. Kinnock was a decent man (I will overlook his ‘grind the bastards to dust’ comments as poorly chosen words) and is one of the most important men in the history of the Labour party.
Cameron has had better press than them overall, no doubt, but in the last few months he’s had few friends, that being the case because the right wing press were not friendly spearheaded by writers like Hastings and Melanie Phillips, not to mention Oborne, Littlejon etc. And the anti-Tory press was as hostile as ever.
I wonder whether what has happened now will be a significant date in the histories of political parties? The Tories were down and set to get a kicking and somehow managed to pull the rug from the feet of the person about to administer it.
Philip,
Given that Gordon Brown shares pretty similar hopes and aspirations as leading American Democrats, such as Clinton and Gore, why should it come as some surprise that Brown expresses himself in similar words and phrases?
The Democratic Party is, for the greater part (even many Southern Democrats are more progressive than most Republicans), the progressive party of American politics after all.
More natural, authentic, than plagiarised thinking of it like that.
Clinton recently said of Gordon Brown:
“Mr Brown’s economic stewardship as Chancellor was exemplary. He is intelligent disciplined, a profoundly concerned person. He is capable of eing a great Prime Minister and I think he is off to a good start”.
Clinton’s no slouch. He knows these things. I’ve never once heard any one say a bad thing about Bill Clinton to me personally, not once. In fact, I’m about the only person I know who has anything remotely good to say about George W Bush. And even then it’s never went beyond that he’s incompetent, inept, a ‘modern-day Nero’ with his strumming a guitar while New Orleans flooded …
Brown has made a monumental error of calcultion. I have no doubt that those who live in the village in around all those spin doctors, advisors and fellow MP’s become blinded to reality. There can be no doubt that the ignition of this whle debacle eminated from Labour. Of course they wanted to knee cap the conservatives, that is natural and would be reciprocated if posible. The Unfair “free pass” for the tories you allude to Dave Hawk, was a direct consequence of Balls and Alexander being allowed to push the the election agenda so far, brief the press, recruit staff, ask unions to cough up for next year early etc.
Brown allowed it, the advisors and spin doctors were working out the strategy, of which the laughable “troop withdrawel” statement in Iraq that back fired was part of.
What I find truly contemptable, is the shameless attempts to try and spin their way out of the mess they created.
Tonight on 5 Live you had Labour whip Sandeep Khan, saying they never once even considered having an election and Gordon has “just been running the country” and all this has come from the media.
Worse a Labour activist, saying all this election fervour was a conservative/media conspiracy.
What utter nonsense, People are not fools.
Brown has made the right decision based on the evidence, but his credibility is severley damaged, he needs to sack his advisors.
This is gross miscalution, that strenghtened the Tories and back fired spectacularly
Earth Calling Labour
Luke,
The thing is since Brown took over it has been the “silly season” of British politics in that Parliament has mostly been in recess and the party conferences have come and gone. I’m advised that IDS even got a respectable conference bounce. I only usually pay close attention to polls when there is speculation of a general election or a general election has been called.
Gordon has had crises to deal with and that has shown him, hitherto, in a positive light. If I was his inner ear, I would not have advised him to announce what he did in Iraq this past week.
A Conservative friend, an ardent Thatcherite who is still livid with the party for doing what they did to her in 1990, said the moment Brown took over, that although he didn’t like him and would never vote for him, he wouldn’t be surprised to see if Brown would prove to be a better PM than Blair. He’s a tobacconist by trade and no he’s not livid with the smoking ban; in fact, his sales have increased. He was pretty satisfied with Brown as Chancellor. He doesn’t like Cameron one bit. Even if I could talk him round to Labour, it wouldn’t make much difference with him living in the Easington constituency.
Dave Hawk, be “sincere” for a moment. There’s a difference between using ’similar’ words etc to someone, and outright blatant plagiarism.
One bizarre thing that made me go “woah!” Just plugged the 41/38/11 figure into the Baxter prediction and it gives seats as: 288, 344, 0
Not sure what would be bigger news, Labour having a slim outright majority despite being points behind – or the fact that NOT A SINGLE LIB DEM would on these figures be re-elected. Although I think this demonstrates once again the unreliability of this method, it is the first time I’ve ever seen this and is quite remarkable.
Adam,
I can assure you that there are certain Labour figures who’d get the biggest kick up their jacksies they’ve ever had in their lives where they to cross my path.
I’ve never wanted an election. Never thought there was any need for an election. In 2005, Labour was relected with a renewed mandate, not just Tony Blair or Gordon Brown.
Why oh why Blair had to go and say that if Labour was re-elected he’d only serve another term before calling it standing aside, I don’t know. But it was stupid.
Yes, some of my own make me wanna weep.
Philip,
Was it all exactly word for word like?
Keith
I think Brown has been clever here. He’s smoked out some of the Conservative policies for an election in the next 12 months or so, so they can be scrutinised properly ready for the real thing.
Keith – for the small price of the Tories announcing two tax policies they have
a) found out Labours plans (council tax rebates for Soldiers etc),
b) bought time to continue spending money in the marginals,
c) bought time to look like a government in waiting and build up Cameron as a potential PM,
d) improved Tory morale and reduced Labour’s
e) made Brown look calculating and full of spin – reducing his favourability ratings
f) Brown’s reaction has alienated parts of the media
g) the Brown bounce and Labour’s lead in the polls since Brown became PM has been eliminated.
I think it is fair to say the Tories think giving away two tax polices was worth the ensuing benefit!!
spot on Guy.
What Politicians, Brown included have never understood, i people value Authenticity.
He would have done himself no harm and could greatly increase his ratings if he put his hands up and said. “i made some mistakes, I’m not perfect. Going to Iraq on advice I now see was an error, we thought we could win another term but now looking at the polls that is uncertain, I hope to prove to you in the coming years that I am worthy of your trust” etc.
The spin and bull is just alienating him from the public and more importantly some favourable media.
The conservative resurgence is less about what the conservatives have done and more about what labour have done.
The thing with spin is to get away with not being caught doing it. That is what Blair and Alastair Campbell excelled at for years.
Brown now is not just spinning but appears to be crystal clear. It is not just poll-watching “anoraks” like us that know about the change in the polls this week, everyone does. For Brown to claim its pure coincidence and not the reason he’s changed his mind isn’t just wrong, its blatantly so. The more he tries to take people for fools, the more the ratings risk sinking.
hawk has obviously had a long night.the press have been unbelievably supportive of labour,considering the state of the country.sky and murdoch unblemished support.
this has now shifted.sky will never support brown again.the sun is not sure about him.
find a hangover cure.it is all over for you guys.
I think there are alot, (too many?) party political points here – I didn’t think that was the point of this site. What I’m more interested in is how these poll swings will settle, what damage has been done to Labour, and will this last more than a few weeks.
For everyone saying that its now over for Brown, remember that exactly the same things were being said about Cameron just 8 days ago – I’ve never seen polls move so far and so fast as in the last two weeks. There is nothing to say they won’t move again.
I still maintain that underlying perceptions are the key to how people will vote, and on this Brown is still ahead, although he has hurt himself. One thing that is clear though – Prime Ministers can make the news much more easily than Opposition Leaders, and Brown has a long time now to re establish his credibility which he can do with the business of government. It will be interesting to see what the public reaction will be to the CSR on Tuesday – expect a few Tory foxes to be shot. I still expect Labour to win the next election, possibly by quite a margin, but there is always the chance that a government can throw it away. Amidst all the froth its worth remebering that we are, after all, mid term in a third stint of government – even if the latest polls are accurate it suggests hung parliament with probable Labour biggest party – in recent times any party would have snapped that up had you offered it to them.
How can not calling an election be a mistake? It would have been far too risky. In the short term Brown may suffer a bit but he has a long time to recover the initiative. I don’t blame Labour’s opponents for making a meal of this, but Brown’s made the right decision.
Dave -
“Must admit I was disappointed there wasn’t any bloodletting. Might have been reassured that the party was genuinely ‘changing’ had there been.”
No, I think the Conf unity is a sign that the Tory party is changing. It was after all the Tories who spent the better part of 15 years (since ~92) having their different factions tear each other apart. Compare those years with the (impressive, if a little creepy) lock-step unity that brought Labour back into government — a unity that only really started unwinding over Iraq. The difference in the unity problems is that Labour had all its big guns on one side (except Robin Cook!).
I do think DC is in essence a ‘One-Nation’ Conservative, more in the mold of Baldwin, Heath and MacMillan than Mrs T. Good thing too, otherwise the 1980s would’ve left a legacy of the Tories being seen as nothing but free marketeering monetarists with no other concerns. A label they came dangerously close to permanently swallowing.
If you want to know why IDS’s rep has been rehabed to a certain extent, watch his conf spech on social justice. You can find it on the Con party website. Moving stuff, from a man who was never particularitly charasmatic and only became leader as a last-ditch effort to stop Kenneth ‘EU Superstate’ Clarke.
It will be very intersting indeed, in this uber-democratic age, to see the press and public reaction if the next election sees the Cons winning a plurality of votes, but Labour remaining in power (maybe even in a coalition with the LDs) because of the skewed electoral system. I think if *that* ends up happening, as a Tory supporter i would welcome a brief unstable government that is soon forced to call another election, one in which the Tories could be affirmed in landlside. Oh to dream!
I’m just fascinated by the magnitude and rapidity of the swings over the last few months; who could tell what the electorate is thinking tomorrow? I’d love to know how many people now see themselves as ‘lifelong X’party–it looks as though party loyalty is dropping and people support yesterday’s key headline. Any figures?
Bad news for the Libdems who seem to be getting squeezed on both sides, good for the Tories, they needed the conference boost, good for Labour still in the high 30s/low 40s. I could never see there being an election before 2009, Brown always said he wanted a good run (that was why Blair stood down with 2/3 years to go).
Anyone saying “its all over for Brown” now is silly. 3 years to go, its anyone’s game. What is likely over now though is the Brown Honeymoon (”Brown Bounce”).
Also probably over is the most extended “silly season” in history. From Sep 05 to now there has been no proper politics, just personality politics (Blairs departure, Brown in-coming etc) to the most inane extent. If an election is now in the long grass we have a chance for some real politics now possibly and how will that affect the polls?
Sorry, Sep 06 I meant to say
Apparently, the Tories still have a few candidates to get into place. Can somebody please point me in the direction of a potentially winnable seat (prefarbly in the North) without a Tory candidate in it yet? I’m not picky…I might try and get on the A-List then!
I agree with you Philip Thompson, such rapid swings are indeed rare. A triple wammy of LAbour ramping up election speculation, giving the cons the ability to unite and hold the limelight in what was a successful conference of policy “perception”, and finally back firing Labour spin. This is one issue that will undo the Brown Government. Blair & Campbell were masters of spin, because we didn’t know often it was happening. Brown and his doctors are in comparrison amateurs. Each attempt at spin is quickly unravelled and is a big cause of the shifiting paradigm.
Interesting to note two of the big vote winners to come out of the cons conference was the IHT and the cons being “the party of aspiration”.
Brown on Marr twice reffered to Labour being “the part of peopls aspirations” and Alistair Darling on the politics show “we want to meet peoples aspirations”. No doubt the brief is to use the A word as much as possible.
Brown has goofed but has time to overturn it, continuous spin, as is still happening, will undo the new Labour project. I have a feeling one of the biggest factors in who will form the next government, will be the Kkngmaker.Rupert Murdoch. Brown has now alienated sky and with Brown lack of a referendum on the EU and the Suns Europhobe views, this could be one of the biggest Labour problems, the media, cruelly in my opinion, cost Kinnock the elction. the can in this media age bring down Labour.
Not just Sky and The Sun, lets not forget The Times getting wound up by Brown calling its editor repeatedly trying to pressure them into dropping its plagiarism story on Brown’s speech.
We now have the odd situation where Brown has annoyed all 3 of Murdoch’s media outlets. Not necessarily the smartest career move!
I thought this board was meant to be about discussion about polling in a non partisan fashion! There are plenty of other places for people to make points based on their own particular political persuasion. These extreme swings in the polls have nothing to do with people’s ’settled’ views of the parties and everything to do with the media frenzy of the last few weeks. The argument about whether Brown or Cameron have in the longer term bought an advantage isn’t going to be resolved now but certainly will be a factor when we are looking at the polls in the run up to the May local and mayoral elections and it will be interesting to see how much reference back to the events of October 2007 there will actually be during April 2008? Recent events have shaken things up a bit and could result in some exciting intitiatives such as a consideration of the single transferable vote for general elections which would really mover things on! I for one will be taking the polls much more seriously in a few months time.
Derek:-
“If you want to know why IDS’s rep has been rehabed to a certain extent, watch his conf spech on social justice. You can find it on the Con party website. Moving stuff, from a man who was never particularitly charasmatic and only became leader as a last-ditch effort to stop Kenneth ‘EU Superstate’ Clarke.”
For me IDS’ speech was the most moving of the lot-indeed it epitomised what Cameron has done to the Tories.
The massive work IDS has done on Social fracture and the heartrending stories told by the Volumtary sector representatives were an eyeopener about whats happening in our cities.
But much more -the proposed solutions were there as well.
I really wish that Cameron would talk more about this plank of Tory policy. It is a revelation .
I think most here are not trying to “point score”, just that the wild swings in the polls in the last few months (and this week esp.) is exciting. In my adult life, I can not recall anything like this year in the polls. Where it goes from now will also be interesting.
You bring up a good point about the May local/mayoral elections. These will be the next key test of public opinion and could frame the mindset then for the year going into a 2009 general election (if one is called).
Anthony: As well as when will the next general polls be, do you know when we should expect to see some mayoral polling data? And when will it start being regularly polled? Sorry if this has been asked before.
ANTHONY :-
Why has’nt the ICM/Guardian figures been shown on the polling statistics and graph ? Surely a POLL of the marginals is as accurate as any other POLL taken if not more so as it covers a wide area of the UK .
The LibDems have their worst rating here since the autumn of 1997. I wonder if it could possibly fall even further? In the late 1980s/early 1990s they often received single-figure ratings.
Given that the 80-odd marginal seats show the Tories 6 points ahead, maybe that should mean we add another 3 points onto the Tory lead in nationwide polls from now on for a more accurate prediction of election results?
Better still, regional breakdowns would be very useful rather than a presumption of uniformity in swings from Land’s End to the Shetland Isles?
David Bowtell – this is intended as being non-partisan, I’d appreciate it if people made an effort to keep to that spirit. There are some points when trying to hold that line are pointless – in the thread after Tony Blair resigned I didn’t bother trying to keep people non-partisan because it hopeless and this is similar – however, now the announcements been made and sunken in, can everyone get back to the spirit of the site.
Philip – I would be very surprised if there wasn’t another flurry of polls to see how Gordon Brown’s announcement has been received. The next regular poll would probably be YouGov’s for the Sunday Times, but clearly that’s happened early, so perhaps ICM are next up. I’m sure we won’t have to wait that long though.
I wouldn’t expect any proper mayoral polls till Brian Paddick is confirmed as Lib Dem candidate next month (assuming that he is). Whether there will be regular polls depends upon whether any media company employs a pollster to do it. It’s inevitable that nearer the time polls will be done, but its not inevitable that anyone will cough up for a regular series of them.
Mike – a poll of marginals is an accurate way of measuring public opinion in marginal seats. It is not an accurate way of measuring public opinion across the whole of Great Britain (in exactly the same way that a poll of just Bolsover would be an accurate way of seeing how people voted in Bolsover, but not in the country as a whole). The graphs are of GB voting intention, not of voting intention of any subset of Great Britain.
Philip Thompson> Aaaaaaaah of course, silly me! I was so focused on numbers that I forgot the meaning i.e. regarding the number of MPs…
Anthony – When are the next set off polls released?
Plus looking at your graph,I am right in saying on your current voting intentions both parties are equal?
A big hello to all those posters that have been missing recently.Must have all been on the same plane that arrived back here Friday night.
One little mentioned fact is the Lib Dems seem to be going through the floor.
“One little mentioned fact is the Lib Dems seem to be going through the floor” – Bit ‘chicken and egg’ that. Are they little mentioned because they’re going through the floor, or are they going through the floor because they’re little mentioned? My thought is that its likely a vicious self-fulfilling circle. The more irrelevant they seem, the lower the coverage, the lower they’ll poll, the more irrelevant they seem etc
Isn’t it all froth got up by the press and the Westminster hothouse? None of the issues mentioned above ranks high on the list of policy areas that are known to engage voters.
Do I rememer correctly that the historical evidence is that a government party with a new leader has the best chance of re-election if they call an early election?
This is all a storm in a teacup, and there are signs that a volcano is about to erupt in Holyrood which will change the landscape for ever. On this site an SNP councillor has said that the SNP minority government is not merely doing as well as its supporters had hoped, but much better!
The consequences for Trident, energy policy, the number of Labour MP’s, the Union itself, temporary bipartisan policies in Scotland and even Gordon Brown’s constituency majority are almost unimaginable.
That’s where the real political story is.