Comments on: ICM poll in marginals points to a hung Parliament

By: Mark Senior

Mark Senior — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 08:21:34 +0000

There was one poll of marginals around 18 months ago Populus ?? which gave individual constituency figures . They were of course worthless giving LibDems 90% in 1 constituency and 20% in another .

By: Joe James Broughton

Joe James Broughton — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 17:45:16 +0000

Anthony has already corrected T Jones.
Random digit dialling is used.

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 09:15:33 +0000

Adam – what Philip says. On top of that, no, ICM wouldn’t have to show what the figures were for individual constituencies unless they’d published voting intentions for individual constituencies.

By: Philip Thompson

Philip Thompson — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 02:45:24 +0000

Adam, this was not an aggregated poll made up of polls of each constituency any more than a poll of GB is a poll of each town and village. The poll was a poll of the constituencies as a group and there was a standard 1k people polled in total as there would be in a GB poll. Just that the people polled were from and representative of the marginals and not of all constituencies.

By: Adam

Adam — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 01:43:03 +0000

Can I just ask: is it possible to oblige ICM under the Market Research Code of Conduct to publish their detailed poll findings by constituency – they must have these figures, surely?

And do we know what the overall sample was? Appreciate it makes the individual constituency results subject to a large margin of error unless the overall sample was close to 100,000 (!) but it would still be interesting to see.