Iain Dale is claiming that he’s heard on the grapevine that an ICM poll tomorrow shows a 3 point Conservative lead, the first since Brown became leader. No confirmation yet; no idea if it’s true. UPDATE – not true after all, seems those were interim figures and the final ones show a small Labour lead.

He also says that the YouGov poll for Channel 4 will show Labour’s lead down to 3 points. I’m not in the office today, so can’t confirm if that’s true or not (and indeed, wouldn’t confirm it anyway if I did know!), so once again, no idea if it’s true. Iain says Channel 4 have confirmed it is a slim Labour lead.

UPDATE 2: There may also be a snap Populus poll in the Times. Ben Brogan has heard the YouGov poll shows a Labour lead of 4 points. All shall be revealed at around 7 o’clock. Well, the YouGov poll will. We’ll have to wait longer for ICM and Populus.

UPDATE 3: Rolling in now! The full Channel 4 results will be available here come the stroke of 7 o’clock. According to Channel 4 “the result is pretty sensational.”


29 Responses to “Rumours of a big turnaround – UPDATE”

  1. The Times is also claiming something similar. They must be fairly sure or they will look rather stupid if they are wrong!

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2589008.ece

    I still think a 3 point Labout lead is fairly good for Labour, if that is what the channel 4 poll shows. However, it may be too much to risk on an early election. It will be interesting, if there is a Tory swing, what happens to the Lib Dem figures.

    And most of all, if a swing of this magnitude is the case, I think we can confine the ‘the die is cast’ argument that Labour supporters have been peddling to the dustbin. Anyway, let’s see.

  2. Will we have the first poll at 7pm? Or will we have to wait and watch newsnight at 10:30pm? Exciting few days (for those into polls).

  3. Channel 4’s poll will presumably be on their 7pm bulletin. The ICM poll will presumably be later on this evening, though I’d be surprised if it was successfully kept under wraps all the way to the newspaper reviews. That is, assuming it really is out tomorrow. There may yet be more than just those 2.

  4. I see a great big Black Dog hanging over me, if these prove true. Not good.

  5. On last night’s Newsnight, either Peter Kelner or John Curtice made the very good point that what Brown really needed was 4 or 5 weeks of normality (ie no conferences) to be sure of how the land lies. As the nights are drawing in, he doesn’t have that luxury. Unless the next clutch of polls show the Tories on their knees, I don’t see how he can even think of calling an election, as the picture is too uncertain.

    And if he doesn’t call an election, the opposition will, not unreasonably, label him a coward.

    Tough call!

  6. Maybe we will all have to hail the genius of Mike Richardson and his ticking clock. Well, perhaps not quite.

    I think it’s entirely possible that there may be a rogue poll amongst this lot. Or more than one. The only thing I do know is that public opinion is anything but settled at the moment.

    If Brown doesn’t go, how damaging will this ‘coward’ jibe he will be subjected to be, I wonder? Also, if he again considers an early election if polls favour him again in, say, 6 months, it won’t look too good if he starts stoking up election speculation again. One can cry wolf only so many times.

  7. Politics is definatly more exciting now than it has been for ages, however!

  8. Will be facinating to see how the lib dems have polled. Although one would assume that the swing has been from Labour to Conservative.

    I assume polling will also have been undertaken regarding personal ratings of the leaders and indeed whether the public wants a November Election.

  9. Steven, but he has brought this on himself so I won’t feel sorry for him

  10. We should be expecting a small ‘bounce’ as a result of the last week of the tory conference with headline grabbing policies relating to IHT etc… however, Labour’s lead has been relatively steady for the last 3 months and so is much more trustworthy. Any tory improvement cannot be sustained unless we hear more eye catching policies. Cutting the IHT threshold is not going to win an election on its own….

  11. It’s possible the Liberal figure has gone even lower, possibly sub 10%. I say this because I think much of the recent swing to Labour has clearly been from the Lib Dems rather than the Tories.

  12. Brown has a fun weekend ahead of him!

  13. Will a Cameron bounce hold or will it fade after the conference euphoria? How exciting!

  14. I could be wrong, but would the fieldwork for these polls have been conducted on Tuesday / Wednesday. If this is the case then almost all of the respondenses would have come after Cameron’s speech, whereas most of last week’s polls came after Brown’s

  15. Rumour has it that private polling in marginals shows mixed results and that the YouGov poll shows a sharp increase in Tory support – not enough to win a G.E though.

    I’ve also heard that Brown is saying he wants some time to unravel Osborne’s tax proposals – rumour has it he thinks he can blow a hole in this £3billion plan from non Doms tax take and that would unravel the whole Tory economic credibility and that he is not going to call a G.E until he has collate dthe actual information about how this non Dom tax proposal will actually work – As we all know the exact figures that show how many non Dom’s would actually be liable to the Tory £25k proposal are not available because of the way the Inland Revenue record this information. Brown thinks the Tories are way out with it but it will take the I.R time to compile exact information on how it would work.

    Word has it it’s spring at the earliest! We will see!

  16. John H

    “Will a Cameron bounce hold or will it fade after the conference euphoria? How exciting!”

    Only time will tell but I do not think there will be a change by Tuesday will probably be the day a November election would have to be announced.

    I have also noticed a change in the broadcast medias coverage of Cameron and Brown this week. They seem far more postive about Cameron and far more cynical about Brown. They seem to consider every personal appearance and announcement by Brown to be spin and a cynical election ploy.

  17. Brown’s nightmare would be if some polls show only a slim lead but others show the lead still very strong. He wouldn’t know what to do in those circumstances.

  18. If this isn’t straw clutching at it’s best.

    Revelation 1:”Conservatives in the lead”

    Revalation 2:”Oh err…well maybe not now in the lead but doing much better”

    Revelation 3:””Err I was …completely wrong Labour is in front”

    Is Iain Dale Mike R in disguise???

  19. Labour is still on 40 points and the Consevatives on 36.

    Still happy!

  20. Oh …and thats 9 minutes before it’s broadcast.

  21. I get the feeling we’ll all soon be back where we were a few weeks ago, having had some fun and interesting exchanges on the way. Brown seems to have missed all the fun, by pretending to stay out of it. I can’t quite see him asking what all the fuss was about, and I can’t quite see him losing support because of his decision, whichever it is. A very small lead to either side would make his decision for him, and I’d be quite happy with that, as I’d like to see the mid-term effect on the polls of the policy announcements by the Tories. It’s a problem that the momentum became part of the story, and that’s partly Brown’s fault, but not a lasting problem

  22. This suggests volatility – so what’s new?

    And there will probably not be an election. But I could be wrong….

  23. … and with regard to YouGov, I was consulted last week but not this week!

  24. I disagee with comments that Brown will look like a coward if he does not call an election, on the contrary, Cameron who is plainly jubilant and very wound up at present will come down to earth with a thud.

  25. One poll down, 4% lead for Labour, not great but not too bad. If this was taken straight after Camerons speech then it does not seem to have the same effect as Browns. But we still have more polls to come, this is a very exciting weekend, I still don’t think there will be an election this year. I also don’t think any polls will show a lead for the Tories over this weekend (for the future? who knows)

  26. As a floater, This is firstly what the country needs. I was sucked into the G.B merry go round last week. This week the dash to Iraq was a a very bad caluclation. It has exposed him for what he is and even before DC’s speech, GB’s cynical photo shoot proved it is still spin spin spin. Nothings changed. DC’s speach left me in awe. Maybe he aint the real deal and will turn out like Blair (who I voted for in 97 and 01). But I will give the Tories the benefit of the doubt to prove themselves, rather than suffer the tax increases, spin and false promises of Labour anymore. I so hope Brown doesn’t bottle it, I sense a change is in the air.

  27. That’s told us!
    Back to the polls debate…
    A four per cent lead for Labour would probably have been seen as positive for Brown a few weeks ago., but now it’s now seen as Cameron’s revival.
    What happened? I suspect that the C4 poll straight after Brown’s speech gave him a false bounce, and the same poll straight after Cameron’s speech has given him a similar bounce.
    It remains to be seen whether we are to be bounced into an election. Hopefully the debate on this site will remain tied to its ethos whether otr not the General Bounce occurs this year.

  28. Wow ! Some great comment on the latest POLLS – before they have all come in – certainly generating some excitment – especially for me – my neck is on the line if the Tories don’t get into the lead before the end of the week !!

    ADAM 8 :-

    I think your views of this week are spot on and are reflective of the mood of the country at the moment .