Comments on: Why are the Conservatives doing badly?

By: Davwas

Davwas — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 11:39:28 +0000

Surely I cant be the only one absolutely bursting for the post Tory conference opinion polls.

The assumptions I think are that any lead over 5% would see GB go to the polls, and anything less would see him hang on.

What would be interesting would be if the polls stayed as they were (broadly speaking a Lab lead of 6 or 7% but GB then decided not to go anyway.

From his point of view it would be much easier to carry off the old ‘an election would not be in the national interest thing’ if he was clearly in the lead.

If the Tories can revive their fortunes to the extent that they force his hand, it will be a big morale boost for them.

I personally believe a November poll will be a mistake. I think the public will resent being asked to go to the polls in the dark and will resent all the late night knocks on the door, I believe GB refusing the oppostunity to go when everyone knows he will win will just add to his popularity.

Whilst I believe he should wait, I think he will go,unless the Tories have really clawed some ground back this week.

Either way it has been fascinating seeing the parties jockeying for position.

By: Simon Hudson

Simon Hudson — Tue, 02 Oct 2007 15:06:57 +0000

The inheritance tax issue as an area to define ‘clear blue water’ is a curious choice. It is difficult to see that many people would cross from Labour to the Tories as a result, so I suspect that it had more to do with shoring up support within the party. As it would require £3 billion a year to implement the change this seems to limit the Tory party’s options on Tax and Spend elsewhere for relatively little political gain.

By: Jack

Jack — Tue, 02 Oct 2007 14:38:29 +0000

Or is it more that the Nationalists are doing so well?

By: Jack

Jack — Tue, 02 Oct 2007 14:37:28 +0000

Are they doing so badly or does it reflect a new reality with Labour holding the centre ground?

By: Philip Thompson

Philip Thompson — Tue, 02 Oct 2007 12:23:21 +0000

The idea that the situation is now fixed as it is now in the polls for perpetuity is madness. Firstly Labour have had a bounce due to their Conference and as yet there have been no polls following the Tory one. There will almost certainly be a change following it of course.

However besides that, there has been as yet no “politics as normal” since Brown became PM. This Conference season has been held in abnormal election fever, through the Summer Parliament was in recess. If no autumn election is held then next week Parliament will resume and for the first time in what seems like a long time then politics as normal will begin at last. How Brown will cope as PM then, or how Cameron will cope as Opposition leader to PM Brown then is as yet *completely untested*.

It takes arrogance to say in these unusual, volatile circumstances that there can be no change from now.