I wonder what the polls will look like after David Cameron’s conference speech? That is what we should look forward to knowing.
It’s worth noting media coverage of the Conservatives has been as minimal as it has been negative in the past few weeks. These polls have been very fickle recently - it wasn’t so long ago that the parties were neck and neck.

uh oh!

Why was this poll comissioned in 24 hours after the speech? To show as larger Labour lead as possible to produce a media story.

I thought it was one of the most boring speeches I’d ever heard, but evidently Joe Public thought otherwise.

There was a Newsnight thing with that American Polical Scientist Frank Luntz shown on Monday with 18 floating voters. Cameron did quite well on that, and was seen as symbolishing ‘change’ and ‘the future’, altho’ obviously also inexperience. What I took from that is that the public are probably still prepared to listen to Cameron. We aren’t in a situation like in the first Labour term when nobody cared what the Tories said however sensible it was. So, they can fight back from this I believe, but these polls look so bad they are genrating a momentum of their own.

One should never read too much into one but this poll does illustrate, I feel, that Labour are onto something good with Gordon Brown. Yes this was a snap poll taken after Gordon Browns conference speech, a speech that was not greeted well in the media but which seems to have resonated with the British voter. The drop in the Labour vote and corresponding rise in the LibDem vote was , I am sure, almost entirely down to the Iraq war. It will be very interesting to see if the Tory conference does have any effect on the current upsurge in the Labour vote, I don’t think it will be much, if any considering the Tories seem to have gone back to 33%, their normal General election figure for the last three elections.

I know this sounds like a certain Mr Meldrew but “I don’t believe it!” Lib Dems on 13%, potentially going into an election? That just seems impossible to me.

That speech was pretty much meaningless. Can’t see why people would get excited by it. Certainly not 44%.

Yes I did see that Newsnight thing, it’s clear that Cameron needs to get a grip over himself and his party, and start saying something coherent and what people actually expect from his sort of party. Starting with the conference!
Or else another Labour landslide (or big majority, which is little different) will result. Sigh.

Oh, and thinking about the noises Jacqui Smith is making about trying to extend terrorist detention times beyond 28
days, this would obviously be easier to push through with a
bigger majority than at present, a reason to go to the country when well ahead I think.

As I posted a couple of days ago, Labour would go 10/11 points ahead after Browns’s speech. Wonder if he will call?? I have a feeling he may just think that he can continue to push his case and further damage the Tories.

The reason people responded positively to Browns’s speech is quite simple - he was not doing what Cameron does - slagging off the other parties! Brown spoke about what his vision was and about who he was. The Tories need to learn they must stop going on about Labour and the Libs and start doing a bit of talking about what they would do - but of course they can’t do that because with each policy review comes the statement that ‘but we will probably not introduce these things of course’!!!

Your voting intention graph is very interesting. How did you calculate it? You clearly don’t plot each poll individually otherwise it would be far more erratic, do you calculate an average?

It’s not really possible for an opposition party leader to make a non-partisan speech. At least half of his job must be to attak the government.

Remember that the avaerage voter will have seen max. 30 seconds of the speech on the news. They will not have watched it like us!

I simply think the country has gone into a Brown hysteria. I cannot explain it. But to market boring dull speeches as as actually being positive (because apparently charisma is out of fashion) is an amazing piece of spin. I don’t believe that persoanlly. Charisma and likeability matter a great deal, and we’ll see that happens when Cameron gets some coverage.

O’ll say it again: the thing I fear most is this early election. I do not think this can be sustained by Brown for very long.

[...] have been skewed by the media coverage his speech attracted. As Anthony Wells fairly notes on his Polling Report blog: … it’s a snap poll, taken while Brown’s speech was still rumbling in respondents’ [...]

Luke W - You would think it was a boring speech as you are quite blatantly a Conservative supporter.With regards the Liberal percentage,you may all say”I can’t believe it” however this is one of a few recent polls that have them at this level.

What some on here and obviously Central Office do not understand is how good a politician G Brown is.He is playing the political game very effectively,from speeches to style to the non-timing of the election.

For those that say that Cameron will get the same bounce after his speech,I say to you this.Browns bounce after the speech is because he looked to Joe Public confident,he had the whole party behind him and the polls are in his favour.How many of the three can Cameron say he has before he makes his speech.

Without repeating myself,all the timings are going against Cameron.I actually feel sorry for him.However the Conservatives picked a Blair style leader,when that style was going out of fashion.How none of you could for see this once Brown took over and give the public what it wanted,dour but conviction politics,yes thats dour Luke,just like his speech,is totally beyond me.

Mike Richardson,I have just sent your clock to Switzerland has it has just exploded with this poll.

Two questions now is:
1:will he call the election with a double digit lead?
2:Is 11% point lead the high mark?

Jonathan, it’s a very basic rolling average of the last 5 polls. No rhyme or reason to that, it just gives a good visual illustration. For each of the individual pollsters there is a graph that plots each individual poll.

I think Richard has picked up on a point missed by many - though it was noted he didnt criticize Cameron or Campbell - that the public are tired of negative politics. Or at least that’s what they keep saying (doesnt mean they dont respond to it). I seem to remember Cameron saying he wanted to end ya boo politics when he took over.
Brown should call it for Oct/Nov - sometimes politics is all about seizing the advantage. On this kind of polling he will be returned with a majority at least as big as Labour currently enjoy and a 5 year mandate.

I agree with Warren - he really should call it now! I might apply to be Brown’s Alisdair Campbell and give him a push!!

If Labour won mid term with between 60 - 100 seats Cameron would be gone.

If the Tory boost next week is only 2%, which it will be, the opportunity is just too good to miss!

Carpe Diem!

I think the Tories should replace Osborne urgently so they have a credible economic spokesman who can make a critique of Brown, and put more flesh on the bones for alternative policy. Other things have gone wrong too.

But - before they reach for the panic button, there was a YouGov poll before their pretty sweeping victory in the May elections which put them on 37% - compared to 33% now.
They have lost 4 points, but Labour is doing much better because the Lib Dems and some of the others have gone sharply backwards.

T-Jones- If I’m a blatant Conservative supporter, I wonder whose side you’re on? All I said was that GBrown’s speech was boring and I am surprised that it has acheived such a (supposedly) good reception.

More general points aside, I am interested in the art of oratory and public connectivity And in GB, for all his virtues, you have a very avaerage speaker who does not use intonation and bombards his audience with statistics and moralistic assertions. I’m quite surprised this would be recieved well. In my expereience, relatively frilly vacuous speakers like TB and Dave do better as far as public connectivity goes. Others, like Kinnock and Howard, despite beiong excellent debaters, did not tend to go down well with the ppublic.

My genuine belief is that at most 5% of the elctorate see speeches, and those are politicos who are ususally partisan anyway. I thunk this support GB is getting is a product of his domination of the news and political landscape for a week or more. I simply don’t think the few seconds of GB there are on the news is enough to deliver the moral compass/substance etc. The worth of a speech is the top three or four soundbite lines it can be condensced to on the news. That is the truth of the matter.

yes, I agree to diching Osborne. He’s fine and for the future but vastky overpromoted in the second most improtant post. DC could do with Clarke at his side instead imo.

I agree with Lukw.

This is probably the single biggest thing they could do.
Why not persuade Ken Clarke to take the job on, or move David Davis into that job.
Phillip Hammond is a very able man - not as known as he should be, and he thinks hard about detailed policy. Dominic Grieve also.

The lack of a credible economic spokesman against Brown is a major handicap.

re London mayoral contest, according to the Guardian, the Lib Dems will announce a candidate in November, perhaps we’ll get a meaningful opinion poll then… although if their ratings are this low I would not bet on them winning.

Talking about disbelief, apparently Norman Tebbit has been praising Gordon Brown in the Times. Oh my.

There really seems to be something wrong with the you.gov methodology at the moment. If you take your last 10 polls, they have on average over-estimated the Labour Lead by 2.1% (compared to the Weighted Moving Average). It is possible that the sort of people who respond to internet polls are more influenced by Brown than the population as a whole. The WMA is 33:41:16. Anyway, let’s see how it is after the conference season.

How many people actually heard this speech? I think people have worked out Brown likes the cult of personality.Does that mean they’ll really vote for him? Or is it all a wind-up? He reminds me of Robert Maxwell.
It would be interesting to know what people liked about this speech - did the pollsters ask this question?

Lukw - sorry to disagree on asubject that interests you, but Brown’s vocal qualities are among his most powerful assets. He uses a great deal of chest resonance - something Lady Thatcher worked so hard to develop, simply because chest resonance makes one sound sincere. An open throat and the deeper registers - it’s coming literally from the region of the heart.It may be unconcious, but it’s working for him on an oratorical level! So much depends on one’s sound (per … sona = through sound)
Does YouGov carry out its own polls without being commisssioned? This poll was bound to show the Brown Bounce at its peak, and one would have expected it to have been commissioned by a newspaper who wanted to encourage an election, rather than an independent body.

Make the current Ave of the last five 40.8 - 33.0 - 16.8 Think thats pretty good for a governemtn in the mid-term.

Also I’m not suprised at level of LibDem support, little media coverage and a leader that seems to be ver much in the ack ground at the moment. Wil Gordon call this week…?

I think the polling industry and the reporting of polls hit a new low with this poll . A GE is not held within an couple of hours of the Prime Minister making a major speech and no response from opposition politicians . A poll taken at the time this one was will measure opinion of the speech but is completely useless as a measure of voting intention at a GE . As Anthony mentioned , Blair’s speech at last year’s party conference gave a similar 7% boost to Labour opinion poll support . It disappeared a month later , probably sooner as there was no corresponding Yougov poll taken immediately after the Conservative conference last year .

True Mark, But Labour were behind then, Labour’s lead and share of the vote has been increasing in recent weeks. I’m sure it will dip again. I’d say that Labour will reach 39-42, Tories 32-35 and Libdems well 14-19.

John T - YouGov do some internal polls without being commissioned for various reasons, like keeping the panel engaged or as R&D for new products, but as far as I’m aware this is just a normal poll commissioned by Channel 4.

what i think this probably means is that many former Lib Dem voters (who may have been Labour voters in 1997/2001) are now pro Labour enough to vote Labour in seats where that makes sense although I suspect these same people would stick with the Lib Dems in seats where they are the main challenger to the Tories. That is why it is particularly bad news for the Tories. The actual national rating for the Lib Dems is nowhere near as relevant as whether centre left voters are now reverting back to a willingness to vote tactically which diminished in 2005

A few facts we should all bear in mind. The timing of the poll (commissioned by Channel 4 I believe) was designed to record the optimum bounce following Brown’s speech. So I don’t think anyone here realistically believes that Labour would have an 11 point lead in an October election. That said, Brown’s lead before the Labour conference started was somewhere between 3 and 8 points and any election result near the top end of that range would be an extraordinarily good result for Labour. Brown is no fool. He will wait to see how the polls are looking next week whilst the Tories are contemplating regicide in Blackpool and then he will make a decision.

As for Brown’s speech, of course it was relatively dour and lacked that spark that we are used to from the likes of Blair. That was Brown’s intent. He is very cleverly feeding the public’s need for a solid, serious and substantial leader. You can call that spin or presentation. Either way, it reflects Brown’s actual attributes which is why the public find it credible. If Brown attempted to do the whole grandiose vision thing, I suspect it would be a cringeworthy spectacle.

As to the level of the Liberals’ vote share, I think two factors are at play here. First, they have ceded back to Labour the votes they garnered from the Iraq war. Whatever they may think, Iraq is no longer a major electoral issue and Ming Campbell is making a huge mistake by continuing to go on about it rather than looking to recover ground from the Tories in the South. Secondly, the Liberals will still benefit from tactical voting during the election proper. A Labour voter living in Somerset has no option but to vote Liberal to keep the Tories out and a Tory voter living in Rochdale has no option but to vote Liberal to keep Labour out. I suspect therefore that their support will recover to 18% which is still a disaster for them.

These are interesting times and I would like to add that the political debate on here has improved markedly in the past week. Considered and constructive analysis from any political perspective is always welcome.

Don’t shoot the messenger. If Channel 4 commission a poll to see how Gb’s first conference speech as PM went down at a time when there is huge speculation about a snap election, what are the polsters to do. Refuse to run it?, withhold the results?, I don’t think that’s realistic.

As for the Tories the worst thing they could do is fire Osborne, good or bad, next week is all about seeming united and ready to govern, switching shadow chancellors and particularly going back to someone from the Thatcher days when you were trying to portray yourself as the future would be politically inept.

A major theme of GB’s speech was theat when tested he had stood firm and “Wouldn’t let you down”, next week is a major test for Cameron and he has to do the same. Much as i oppose the Tories, from an electoral point of view anyone at the conference who as much as breaths a word if criticism of him is an idiot.

i’ve already said earlier that I didn’t think it was that good a speech, no real vision. I also think that the Britain being tested bit was overdone. The foot and month “Crisis”is effectively a smattering of cases around a lab which has been contained by measure designed during the real crisis a few years back.

The terror attacks were an attempted exploition and a car that went ofn fire, they could have been worse but they weren’t the London Bombings, I like John smeaton and he was brave, but if he hadn’t have acted the guy would probably have just burnt to death.

As to the Northern Rock, there are still major question marks over how it was handled.

So I think Brown over did the whole thing a bit, trying no doubt to make us feel good about ourseleves.

Peter.

When looking at this poll we need to remember, one there is a problem with YouGov’s methodology as it under represents the Lib Dems and over represents Labour, two it was taken just after one side had just given its case, three it was taken when the TV media were being almost totally uncritical, and before a lot of the critical press coverage came out, and four it was a snap poll.

I wouldn’t call an election based on it but that’s just me.

By the way, I don’t really understand this point about Charisma/style going out of fashion? As far as I was aware, it wasn’t Tony Blair’s skills as a rhetorician or as charismatic leader which made him become unpopular. I think this supposed hunger for dourness and boringness has all been an enormous piece of spin which seems to be working!

See the Daily Mail headline this morning? ‘Women Voters flock to Brown’

Are there any papers left which currently support the Conservtives?

I think what has happened in the Tory party over the last few weeks showd just how hard it was always going to be for Cameron coming from a platform to the left of most of his party. The Tory press is hostile, the remaining left-wing press remains unfriendly- to- hostile, and the party itself is proving an absolutely unleadable rabble, with sniping beginning as soon as a single bad poll comes out, and a belief that a return to a Thatcherite position will somehow win an election where it has so so comprehensively failed to do so in the last two. I like Cameron, but forces who are supposedly friendly are behaving in such an unintelligent way and just will continue to make the same mistakes again and again. It’s very frustrating.

Lukw speaks a lot of sense about disunity - it is fatal, make no mistake atall about that.
And there’s too much reaching for the failed panic button of 1997-2003.

But Osborne has to be replaced urgently - if not actually during the conference.
Someone moderate with gravitas in charge of the money.

Talking of spin Lukw, is that a bit in your posting? The Mail headline today was ‘women voters turn to Brown’, not ‘flock’ which is rather different. Also, you ask if there are any papers left which support the Tories? Mail/Express/Telegraph to name but 3! Certainly they’re not all crazy about Cameron (not right wing enough apparently) but the support is still there and they are all vehemently anti-Labour.

The removal of Osborne is essential for the Tories and as mentioned above Clarke would be a good appointment but would Cameroon want to have someone who thinks a referendum on the EU treaty is a daft idea in such a position? I suspect not. I see nothing but internal strife ahead for the Tories.

To pick up on your first point LukW: I think it’s ironic that one of the Tories’ few potent lines of attack over the past few years has been against alleged Blair spin - and that relentless attack I think is partly why Blair fell from grace. So for the Tories then to elect someone as leader who appears largely to ape Blair’s style and even policies is a classic own goal - they and their media supporters have created the conditions in which Brown is now revelling!

There have been reports that another Tory Mp is about to defect, will this be during the Labour or Tory conference? What will the polls look like then?

Whether or not a defection is about to happen, it’s not surprising to anyone who’s been following the polls/news. There are two reasons for defecting : career-advancement, and/or the realisation that New Labour has won the arguments - it will be interesting to see the next polls on perceived performance re economy, health, crime, education. Cameron’s line must be that the taxes have been wasted, and will continue to be wasted unless the Conservative Party is elected. Those results will reflect the success or failure of his speeches to convince the public that his approach is better. He must be careful to acknowledge that (at least) the minimum wage has helped, and I’d like to see him pledge that there will be no cuts in the numbers of doctors,nurses,teachers,policemen - in other words the really expensive aspects of the public services.

From what I’ve read/heard there are several that might do it. Probably it will be between the two conferences, or perhaps during the Conservative conference. Cameron’s got work to do, to say the least.

As i understand it that is what he’s doing. (pledging no cuts ) Presumably that’s one of the reasons he’s not wowing the Tory faithful. Brown has cut nurses / doctors jobs and certainly has made a lot of teachers redundant in Northern Ireland. The PCS union state on their website he’s cut a lot of civil service jobs and that’s why they’re balloting for strike action. Perhaps that’s what he talked to Margaret Thatcher about.

Another defector? Dear me, what a rabble the poor old conservaives are. So rebellious. I would have thought that, after a decad ein oppoition, they would have some kind of conviction to attack the government rather than their own leader. Unless you are a labour partisan, you should take no pleasure from this. One of the two main poles of British political ideology is rendering itself disfunctional due to it’s addiction to self-mutilation. I don’t blame Cameron to be honest, I simply think it may be impossible to lead the Conservative party at the moment unless you are a Thatcherite.

On the subject of defections, Quentin Davies did not worry me overmuch. His defection seem very odd, because he is an old-fahioned pro-hunting, socially conservaitve Tory- not what you would expect as a happy bedfellow in the modern Labour party. What the Tories don’t want is a defection fromt he centre-left of the party…like another Woodward or Temple Morris. Right wingers going over to labour sends a mixed message, moderates going over is really bad news.

May Cameron himself will be the defector. I’m not sure I’d blame him!

Some inetersting comments: I really don’t see how anyone, even a Tory, can ‘SPIN’ the idea that dour Brown is really just spin! It’s laughable what the Tories bang on about re spin! It takes a real spinner to try to portray Brown’s dourness as spin! It is this sort of thing that the voters see through or rather the more intelligent ones do!

Re the comment about Brown cutting nurses/doctors etc - what absolute spin! Anyone with a modest level of intellect knows that nurses,doctors,teachers,police numbers are all massively up from the days of the Tory cuts. Untrue statements tend to turn people away!

The shadow chancellor definitely needs replacing in my opinion. Hes is my M.P - IMO lightweight and carries little credibility either in business or the public. As I mentioned some time ago the Tories mistake was not electing Davies and Clarke. Instead they have a bigger spinner than Blair and a shadow chancellor that one week endorses less control and regulation for the banks and the next week when he reads about Northern Rock in the Tory Mail, the Tory Express and the Tory Telegraph he writes to the government demanding tighter control and regulation of the banks!!! Laughable and also a sad state of affairs if that is the best opposition we can muster.

It was not Blair’s rhetoric that made him unpopular, it was Iraq and it was the style of politics that he enjoyed which was constantly criticised by the Tories as ’spin’. Rather odd then that they elect a leader who got his job by spinning and then expect spin to win an election - bit out of date there I think, at their own doing! What Brown is good at is presentation not spin. Spin is Camerons forte as it was Blair’s.
As was mentioned earlier by another contributor, Brown’s oratory skills are a great asset in the present political climate, a climate created I hasten to add by the Tories running down the Blair style! One thing Brown clearly is not is an heir to Blair! I don’t think Davies would have been either do you - but now the Tories will forever be wondering - if only!!! A glaring gaffe that was so obvious at the time of the Tory leadership election, apart from to the Tory party.

As already mentioned above, the Libs need to start targeting the Tories down South pretty quickly or they will lose a lot of seats there. The danger is that the Libs will end up with just a few seats again, the Tories will be representing the South only and Labour mostly the North. Whatever next, an Ind party for the South! Perhaps Boris can be their leader!

I understand that a Tory defector may possibly be announced the day before or actually on the day of Camerons speech. If it happens it will be trailed as an important announcement to be made by Brown!!! Now won’t that worry them - will it be a defection or an election!!! That is presentational skill not spin by the way!

Maybe the defector is Thatcher

Presentational skill is somehow a more virtuous acolade than spin? Revealing a defector before DC’s speech is spineless politics and should not be seen as anythuing else!

I’m still not convinced by this idea that style is out of fashion. We’ll see about that. Style, by its nature, is always stylish.

You have to hand it to Brown!
He has somehow managed to uncouple himself from his past pivotal role in the Blair administrations-a sort of New, New Labour.
So his reversals/stepping back from failed policies like relaxation of gambling, drugs & drink laws, uncontrolled immigration, etc are presented with no danger of personal culpability.
Even the failure of the Tripartite system of Financial Services oversite-which he designed & which failed to highlight Northern Rock , is presented as “financial turbulance”.

Cameron got this man badly wrong.Brown is a consumate political tactician.

The new warm ,caring & sincere Gordon-father of the Nation ,with a tent big enough for both Margaret Thatcher and the Beast of Bolsover ( but not the ruined pensioners from whom he fled in his car)is a brilliant disguise.

And it’s working!

Cameron has to raise his game very quickly.

Have just read Norman Tebbits praise of Gordon Brown and attack on David Cammeron, the polls show movement from LibDem to Labour, maybe this will start the move from the Tories to Labour; I don’t think the Tories attempts to distance themselves from Lady Thatcher has helped any (I am no fan of Lady Thatcher but even I found the Tories attacks on her distasteful after her visit to no. 10). Will be interesting to see if there are any more polls this weekend.

I really do believe that Gordon needs to call! The momentum is building and looks like the tide could turn his way big time……..

I missed that Judith Symes, who was on David Cameron’s A-list, has already defected to Labour!

Is she an MP?

Lukw: Presentation is how you present something.

Spin is making something sound like something it is not - the two are very different!

For example if one were to suggest Brown’s speech was really about style and not substance then that would be opposition spin. If Osborne were to say that banks need more control and then give the control to the banks themselves, that would be spin. If Brown said he wants equal education oportunities for all and then gave more money to grammar schools per pupil than state schools but because there were fewer pupils in the grammar put the case that grammars received equal funding then state schools, that would be spin.

Revealing a defector at a sensitive time for an oposing party is presentational. Revealing 4 Labour defectors out of 25 as in a certain recent by election campaign and saying look, ‘everyone’ is abandoning Labour would be spin.

If you were selling a house and made it look clean and tidy that would be presentation. If you advertised your house and said it had a pleasant outlook but really it backed onto an airport runway and you used the excuse that it would be pleasant for a plane spotter, then that would be spin! There is a difference!

I agree with you about style, unfortunately however the Tories have managed to convince most of the voters that ’stylish’, which Blair certainly was, is out of fashion! Style will always be stylish to those it appeals to, however there seem to be a lot of unstylish people about right now - a bit like Brown!

Politics in this country for the last 28 years or so has really gone downhill - maybe it’s because of the lack of skills and poor intellect of some of the people who are attracted to politics these days. It’s a great pity but both Labour and the Tories have obviously been so disheartened at stages over the last 28 years that it is sadly understandable for there to be so few conviction politicians these days - they are all probably so worried about trying to find out what the public want first and pretending they agree with the public views and it is this the elctorate are not fooled by and dislike and it is the conviction politicians like Thatcher and now Brown that people would rather have, even if they do not always approve of their style!

For the Tory supporters amongst us, nil desperandum - all good things come to an end!

Jake: I bet she’d get a bigger majority here in Tatton than Osborne She could be our new anti sleaze candidate! I hear the Hamilton’s have a room to rent (cash only)

LOL…… I know she stood in bootle 2001 and Brighton 2005.

Richard- Yes, I agree there’s a difference between spin and presentation, which you clearly illustrate. I’m not sure one is any more virtuous than the other though!

I am too young to remember 28 years ago (being only 24 myself) but I certainly think the stock of politicians has gone down to an almost subterianian level in comparison to what it was like even 10 years ago. Think how many taltented politicians, debaters, speakers etc, there were (on both sides, but mainly - although I am sounding biased here- on the Conservative side). Many of the Tories got cleared out in 1997 as they were all replaced by novice ultra-loyal Blairites. Since 1997, the big beasts have dwindled and very few new ones have emerged. Howard and Clarke are spent now, John Reid is quitting, and I can’t see Charles Clarke coming back. Both front benches are largely full of pygmies! I though Alistir Darling was overpormited at the DTI, never mind chancellor!

LukeW - Heres a good example of Spin.Releasing a list of hospitals that are under the threat of closure when they are not.Then having local Tory MP’s to these hospitals claiming they knew anything about the list and in fact Centeral Office hadn’t told them.The poor MP then has to grovel to all and sundry, apologising ,while Central Office goes underground.

In a whole series of Own Goals that was a beauty.

Anyone got an idea of who the defectors may be?

Anthony,

This poll seems to suggest a fall in the “others” vote. Is there any indication where they might be from in the data. I wouldn’t like it to be from the SNP, but given Browns popularity up here iI wouldn’t be all together surprised.

I know the data for scotland is limited, but it would be interesting to Know what might be happening up here. No one seems to have done a Scottish poll since the Holyrood election which is almost six months ago (hint hint).

Peter.

TJones- That sounds more like a lie to me than spin. My point is not that good presentation and spin are the same (which I never said) but that neither are virtuous arts. If a defector is unveiled during the Tory conference - whatever you want to call it - that is the politics of the gutter and not of the high moral standards our Prime Minister claims to embosy.

On another topic, have there been any Scottish Polls recently? If the SNP are doing so wrell in Scotland GB’s lead must be even higher in England than these polls would normally suggest (as the Lab figure would be boosted by the Scottish votes).

As for Labour in 1992, I think the best thing for the Tories in 2007 is to loose!
I believe history will repeat itself… As in 1992 the government will win a 4th term not because the electorate like the government but because they dislike or distrust the opposistion but in four or five years time, once unpopular Labour policies such as ID cards, road pricing or work place parking taxes, even higher taxes to make up the deficit & covering green fields with houses etc have come to the fore, they will be voted out big time, giving us another decade or so of Tory government.

T Jones

I agree the tories did not handle that very well! However, my Brother is a ward manager in the NHS and it is a known fact within the organisation that once you close maternity units or A&E units closure of the hospital comes along not more than five years later or at the very least it’s scaled down to being a day centre/geriatric centre. It’s happening at my local general.

Ian, you say that Labour is doing well because the public dislike the Tories!!! How come Labour have increased their position by about 9% points? It’s because of the change in leader not because of any change in the Tories.

I think the underlying unpopularity of the Tories has beena staple of Labour leads. I think that, say for example the Tories have popularity 2/10 and Blair had 1/10 - they were ahead. Brown maybe has 3 or 4/10, so he is able to pull ahead of the Tories because they are unpopular and he is a little less unpopular.

So you are saying Labour is ahead because its more popular than the other parties? And the Tories are behind because they are less popular? But when the Tories are in the lead, that is because Labour are more popular than the Tories and the Tories are still less popular than Labour? I don’t understand you.

The Tories have a given(low) level of popularity, Blair was even lower. Brown is slightly higher than the Tory level. Thus the hierarchy is Blair>Tories>Brown.

The point I am trying to make is that Brown is not necesarily popular, but simply more popular than both of these other very unpopular things.

I thought all politicians were unpopular! So all you are saying is that all politicians are unpopular. But that the current polls are showing Labour is the least unpopular and when the Tories were in the lead they were the least unpopular but that no party (whoever is in the lead) can be called popular but only the least unpopular. Your glass is always half empty I take it?

Lukw point makes sense to me. The public aren’t huge fans of Brown but they’re sick of the Tories and Blair so Brown is polling highly.

That doesn’t mean to say all politicians are always unpopular. In 1997 I think Blair really was popular. It wasn’t just a protest vote against Major. People thought he was going to change things for the better and end sleaze and solve all the worlds problems like he said he would.

I don’t think people have the same delusions about Brown. He’s just the best of the available candidates.

I find this Poll hard to take as it seems to suggest Brown’s speech went down very well, when I like other people making comments found it uninspiring. I fear it contained soundbites that picked up voters who have not seen through such things yet.

I have not seen the Scottish figures for this poll. I am with Lukw in wondering about this. My immediate reaction was that all Brown’s references to Britain might go down very badly in Scotland. And I am surprised that Brown has not been picked up heavily on the West Lothian question. He referred all over the place to issues like health and education for which, following devolution, he has responsibilities in England rather than Scotland and Wales, even though he sits for a Scottish constituency.

I never cease to wonder that an authoritarian tone can be so popular.

Given current events, such as Northern Rock and a foot and mouth outbreak apparently caused by Government underfunding of a public laboratory, the current polls are a terrible indictment of the opposition leaders.

Blair was popular for a long time, but the people eventually turned on him. I suspect this is as nothing compared to the reaction there will be against Brown in a year or two’s time when economic storms on the horizon come rolling in.

Frederic Stansfield, good point, if the economic “storms” do appear then maybe Labours lead will drop but on the other hand if the economy contines to grow as it has done for the last 10 years then maybe the lead will increase. Could this be the first time since 1970 that a party gets over 45% of the vote?

Frederic, those who approve of Brown’s tone don’t do so because it’s authoritarian. It probably sounds more down-to-earth to them than the previous tone of Tone, who disguised his rather shallow tones by concentrating on varying his pace, and developing a distinctive rhythm, with plenty of pause and held eye-contact, so it’s no wonder to me.
As far as Brown’s credibility is concerned, the more people wrongly predict disaster ahead, the more his credibility improves. His opponents ought to concentrate on the “wasted tax” line, and try to parade as many example anecdotes as they can.

Gary,

No I’m saying as in 1992 the public do not yet trust the opposition enough to vote them into government. Thats not quite the same as saying they fully support Labour, many out there see Labour as the lesser of the two evils and so are sticking with them for now.

As most on here (I hope) would agree, oppositions do not win elections, governments lose them. Over the horizon there are many Labour policies that will ultimately cause the party to lose big time (though most voters aren’t really aware of them yet,like being made to pay tax on parking your car at work etc) particulary if that coincided with bad ecconomic news.

Ian - all of your ideas that point to Labour losing support can are to do with increases in the cost of living. I totally agree that the Labour Party will lose power (eventually) rather than a the Tory, LibDem, or SNP (only winding you up Peter Cairns!) party gaining power, but the over-riding question , to me, is who can convince the electorate that their ideas are the best in terms of controlling the cost of living. For instance, a chief exec might have trouble keeping on the right side of shareholders by explaining that the cost/income ratio has deteriorated because of rising costs, but if he can point to an improving turnover/profit ratio, he will win the day. It’s the profit margin that counts with the voters, and no increase in taxes (and there have been many!) can compete with a well-delivered argument that the benefits to society (the profit) make the increase taxation worth it. So far, Brown is winnig, because Cameron’s point about wasting taxes is still not being heard.I don’t know why! I’d love a four-party system where I wasn’t sure how I was going to vote, but I find the current system almost devoid of clarity. SO much noise and anger drowns sensible debate, and I must admit this site, by concentrating on interpretation of polls,and stymying over-prejudiced remarks has contributed greatly to my understanding of how other people think.

I don’t think Cameron is pushing the ‘waste’ argument hard enough. IMO, this is the Tories’ strongest point and a poll a few weeks ago confirmed people think extra money on public servicues, paid for by large tax increaces, has been largely wasted

I think they are reluctant to because they believe they are open to the counter cry of ‘tory cuts’. But, to say your opponents have wasted money does not mean you advocate cuts, which makes sense to any person with an IQ of above 50. But is that a majority. Sometimes I have my doubts…

I don’t doubt the Tories always have their knives sharpened. Where they stick them, that is, is another matter

Richard,

“If its economic storms your looking for - thats easy just vote Tory and you’ll soon be paying 10% on your mortgage, Osborne says base rates should be 8%”

I never knew Osborne had said that. Meanwhile, I read on Ceefax Business that the OECD has said the UK “may need to CUT rates” to boost the economy.

Well the Thin Lady has sung ( Jerusalem!!!) and it’s all over.
Jack Straw puts the final flourish to Gordon’s little bag of goodies-policy reversals from the airbrused “Blair Years” and Damascene conversions to Tory policies hitherto condemned.
And for good measure something from the BNP-”British Jobs for British Workers”

What on earth does Cameron say to expose this stuff?

-Oy mate-we’re the Conservatives you know!

Can’t wait

It seems that Brown faces noi dissent for espocing idea and convictions far to the right of his party, but Cameron causes terrible storms when he shys leftwards.

The Conservatives should learn from this amazing Labour unity. On one hand though, I find it a little inhuman and disturbing! However, it does show one thing- like the Tories in the 80s, there’s one thing that Labour want more than anything else- and that’s to win!

The council by-election results last night (I think there were about have the Tories doing quite well and gaining a couple of seats. In those elections, where several thousand people voted, the Tories have a 7% lead apparently.

However, it may simply be that the areas where these by-elections were areas in which the Tories were unusually strong anyway, but the results seem to come from mixed bag of places to me.

eight not 8 ?!??

opps, sorry, these weird emotocons are going crazy.

Peter Kellner’s done an analysis on last night’s bye-election results (Sept 27) and compared to last time they apparently show a swing to Labour and are much better results for the government compared to LA bye-elections just before the last GE.

All fascinating stuff these latest POLLS - but the BEST POLL so far this week coming right in the middle of the Labour Party conference was the FANTASTIC Conservative swing in the north east of England on thursday in Labour heartland - where the Tories won a Labour council seat and broke the back of all the Labour majorities in the other 8 seats in the City of Sunderland (can’t get much more Labour than Sunderland)

A BBC political commentator “Sean Curran” said that nationally these figures would have given the Tories a 6.2% lead over Labour !!

I say YES - Gordon Brown - call an election IF YOU DARE !!!

As i have said before - I live in the North of England - North East to be exact - right in the so called “Labour Heartland” - i am hard put to find anyone supporting Labour - even chatting to my decorators , builders and hairdressers - so where on earth these POLLS are being conducted is beyond me ???

Apart from the great Tory hammering of Labour in Sunderland - the Labour policy of Mayors across the UK was totally rejected in Darlington yesterday - 7,981 for and 11,226 against - this is a Labour town in the heart of the North East - rejected by so called Labour voters !!!

I have a draft of a post I’m going to put up during the campaign rebutting god awful comments about polls I see in lesser comments sections than mine own. One is “the polls must be wrong because no one I know supports X”.

Opinion poll samples will be considerably more representative and drawn from a considerable wider pool than “people X comes across in his daily life and talks about politics with”. Remember, people don’t have to be actively positive about the government to reluctantly tell pollsters they’d probably vote Labour, they just need to think Labour are better than the alternatives.(And besides, come on - look at the results in the North East! Almost every seat is a safe Labour seat, it’s packed to the seams with Labour voters.)

Plus you can get far more Labour than Sunderland. There is a pretty solid Conservative group on Sunderland council. Compare that to Barnsley or Hackney or Newcastle.

Anothony, just as a point of interest - how much stock do you place on council by-elections? How significant is this Tory lead we have seen in this round of by-elections do you think?

Lukw - I’m putting up a post that will mention them tonight (or tomorrow morning, or whenever the next round of polls emerge. I expect some over the weekend)

ANTHONY :-

My comments on the North East are brought about by constant speculation on here that Labour are solid in the north of England . These council bi-elections are a prime example of that NOT being the case at all .

You are quite correct that the Tories have very good representation on the local councils in Sunderland and in the rest of the North East - this is not something that has always been the case - the vast majority of Tory seats on local councils is very new - mostly in the last 2 years of council elections - so it should be a guide to the vulnerability of Labour throughout the UK - not just in middle England .

Talking to local people can give you an idea of feelings - especially grass roots voters / the POLLS can show what they like - but real elections do count at the end of the day - they all show a Labour reduction in support both north and south of the border .

Wow, thanks Anthony. I love this website!

seems another yougov poll confirms an 11pt Labour Lead!

For anyone interested in speculating on the political future this is definitely the place to be as most of us don’t have much day to day contact with likeminded anoraks.

“(can’t get much more Labour than Sunderland)”

I do wish people would actually learn about polling, its methodology and accuracy before coming up with the tiresome “I don’t know anyone who will vote for X” nonsense.

As a Labour activist in the 1980s I could barely find a Tory voter in the Warrington South constituency while out canvassing, everyone hated Thatcher- but by God battalions of Tories turned out at the polls come the day that mattered.Listen to what Anthony is saying and you may actually learn something.

“A BBC political commentator “Sean Curran” said that nationally these figures would have given the Tories a 6.2% lead over Labour !!”

So,less than the 1