A new Ipsos-MORI poll in the Sun on Monday has voting intentions of CON 34%(-2), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 14%(-2). There are no dates available for the fieldwork yet – sometimes MORI’s polls do take slightly longer to reach the papers, especially the monthly face-to-face polls, so this may have been taken prior to the ICM and YouGov polls that were published over the weekend.

The 42% recorded for Labour’s support equals their highest level of support so far this Parliament – a level last reached in a MORI poll back in 2005 before David Cameron became Conservative leader. 14% is the lowest the Liberal Democrats have recorded from MORI this Parliament and, though we won’t know until we find out the fieldwork dates, it might well have been despite being conducted during their conference. As I said in my predictions for what would happen in an early election, I suspect the Liberal Democrats are suffering as they once did through a lack of media profile, and that in the event of an election campaign they would probably do better than this.

The poll also supposedly contains a varient on the voting intention question asking how people would vote if Gordon Brown offered a referendum on the EU Treaty which gives Labour a 17 point lead. When, a few months ago, all the polls used to contain a question asking how people would vote if Gordon Brown was leader I got bored to my back teeth of religiously adding a caveat about them being purely hypothetical questions and that the public aren’t actually very good at predicting how they’ll react to future events. Given how accurate they were at predicting a hypothetical future then, I trust everyone will give the appropriate pinch of salt to this hypothetical voting intention question.

UPDATE: The poll was conducted between the 20th and 22nd of September, so is bang up to date. There was also a question that asked how people would vote if Brown ruled out a referendum on the EU treaty which showed Labour’s lead slipping to only 1 point. I’d dismiss this question along with the one above! More interestingly the poll also suggests a far, far lower lead for the no camp when people were asked how they’d vote in a referendum on the EU treaty, finding that 38% would vote against it and 32% in favour. This is but a single poll, and others have all shown a much bigger lead for the No camp, but it does suggest that such a referendum could potentially be winnable for Brown.


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