Comments on: Labour running ahead despite Northern Rock

By: Oscar Wildebeest

Oscar Wildebeest — Sat, 22 Sep 2007 21:03:33 +0000

I suddenly feel less confident about my prediction, in view of Douglas Alexander’s latest remarks.

By: Richard

Richard — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 20:52:22 +0000

Many thanks Dave.

Very valid views Oscar. The risk against of course is that the Tory’s can only improve, which undoubtedly they will.

A safe and peaceful weekend to us all

By: Dave Hawk

Dave Hawk — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 20:43:23 +0000

Richard,

All eight by-elections took place yesterday.

By: Oscar Wildebeest

Oscar Wildebeest — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 20:42:48 +0000

Peter: very good point. It’s a bit like the US Presidential election – it’s all very well being ahead in the national vote, but you have to win more states than your opponent.

I still don’t think Brown will call yet – there’s just too much to lose, and things can change very quickly in an election campaign.

By: Richard

Richard — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 20:22:49 +0000

Anthony – How do you view the likelihood of Brown calling a G.E the day before Cameron’s speech? I know you have had a differing view to that of mine on when would be a good time to call but is it now too good an opportunity to miss?

If Labour get a further boost of 2% or so, which they will, by the end of their conference, surely it makes sense to call a G.E as Cameron is about to speak – his speach would becaome non-news – It would be likely to negate any boost that the Tories would get from their conference and would surely cause havoc for the Tories with no official policies.

Brown could then also claim to have a mandate regarding his European stance of no referendum if he managed to increase Labour’s majority because his views would have been put openly to the electorate.

By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 19:51:10 +0000

Looking behind the headlines of the Sept ICM poll, the Labour lead looks a lot less impressive in the South than in the North.

Again it’s the same old story, what matters is getting the votes where you need them. Labour having them queing up at the polls is safe seats doesn’t actually increase there majority.

The lead may look good but the Tories can still make gains in target seats even on these figures.

Peter.

By: Mark Senior

Mark Senior — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 19:46:09 +0000

Yuogov poll in tomorrows Telegraph with changes to last Yougov ST poll Con 33 -1 Lab 39 N/C LibDem 16 +1 Others 12 N/C

By: Steven Wheeler (Lab)

Steven Wheeler (Lab) — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 19:05:10 +0000

I have just been looking at the Newsnight poll Peter mentioned. It says Labour are 12 points up when asked about the economy irrespective of voting intention.

I find it hard to believe that many people saying they’d support the Conservatives in intention polls would say Labour or Liberal had better policies on the economy.

Does this mean that more people who say they are unlikely to vote in intention polls would vote Labour if forced?

Does this mean

By: Alec

Alec — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 18:55:09 +0000

It’s interesting, but I’ve also been looking at recent (from mid August) council by election results posted on
http://www.aldc.org and these also indicate a generally pooor performance from the Tories. I hesitate as it is a LD website, so I don’t know if it lists all contests (although it does show some LD losses), but there are sufficient Tory losses and Labour gains to suggest the opinion polls are accurately reflecting actual voter sentiments.
As I’ve said before, the big gap that has opened up between Labour & the Tories on individual issues and questions of competence is I think more significant than the headline lead – it shows an inherent weakness in the Tory poll position, and a clear sign that Cameron has failed to capitalise on his opportunity. There was a period during Blair’s long goodbye when Cameron could have established the new Tory brand – he missed the chance, Brown capitalised, and the Tories are back where they started.

By: Richard

Richard — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 18:55:00 +0000

As Chris already pointed out, I am amazed to hear Osborne today urging the government to bring in tighter control and more regulation in the financial services sector! Is this really the same man that sat next to John Redwood only a matter of days ago nodding his head and agreeing that the financial services sector should have LESS government interference, less control and be more self regulating?????

This type of Tory hypocrisy is endemic! Please get a grip and provide some real opposition based on beliefs! Whatever headline next – It will be Chameleon and Zac buy a 4×4 each because the driver’s lobby say bicycles are a menace?!!!!

Dave Hawk -were all those council by-elections last night or old ones?