Labour running ahead despite Northern Rock
This is interesting – an ICM poll in Wednesday’s Guardian has voting intentions of CON 32%(-2), LAB 40% (+1), LDEM 20% (+2). It was conducted between the 13th and 16th, so a lot of it would have been after the Northern Rock difficulties started to dominate the news agenda. It’s early of course, public opinion can take a while to digest events, but as an early sign it suggests the sign of economics wobbles is boosting Labour support rather than damaging it.
It seemed to be echoed by a snap Populus poll taken on Monday afternoon, after a day in which the TV news was full of footage of huge queues outside the stricken bank. The full results aren’t up on the Times’s site yet, but Peter Riddell’s analysis mentions that only 20% of people blamed the government (and I’d warrent those are largely Conservative supporters anyway) and that the proportion of people who think Brown and Darling are the best team in an economic crisis is still up at 56%, down from 61% before the recent troubles (and Cameron/Osborne are also down, so Brown’s lead is actually bigger than before).
The 8 point lead in ICM’s poll really does put the possiblity of a snap election back on the table. All along my prediction has been that there will not be an election this year, that there simply wasn’t the time available for it to be demonstrated to Gordon Brown’s satisfaction that a Labour lead was truly consistent, and wasn’t a temporary bounce and wouldn’t fade away in the heat of an election campaign. Iff this sort of lead is echoed in several more polls in coming days though (and the very fact of this large lead, and the Northern Rock affair means that more polls will probably be commissioned) then perhaps, just perhaps…
UPDATE: The Guardian headlines on leader approval figures and the supposed swing against Cameron. This is actually rather small. Assuming the wording of the questions was the same, when ICM asked leadership approval questions last month for the Sunday Mirror David Cameron’s leadership was approved of by 38% of voters, with 42% disapproving. This poll has 37% approving of his leadership, an insignificant change, and 45% disapproving – a change in his net rating from -4 to -8. Over the same period, Gordon Brown’s approval ratings have dropped from +40 to +32. Alas, Sir Menzies Campbell, whose net rating is now marginally above Cameron’s, was not asked about last time, so we can’t draw out any changes. No doubt that Brown is still riding high and Cameron’s in the doldrums, but it’s always worth looking at the figures rather than the headlines.
ICM also has figures for best party on issues, which seem to show Labour head on everything, even Conservative core issues like crime and immigration (albiet, by very small margins). The most notable figure there though is a huge 25 point Labour lead on the economy. For a poll taken almost at the height of a banking crisis, this certainly supports the hypothesis that people have rallied to Gordon Brown as a safe pair of economic hands.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the next poll – this was conducted before the crisis stabilised, so Labour may well get a further boost from being seen to have successfully handled the problem. On the other hand, if people have rallied to Brown at a time of economic crisis, they may clear off again once the problem has passed. On top of all of that, we should remember it is just a single poll, we may all be getting excited about an outlying poll that just happened to co-incide with a mayor news story!
Filed under: ICM, Populus, Voting Intention
This is largely what I have been expecting. The big poll news over the summer hasn’t been Labour’s headline lead, but rather the slump in the underlying view of Cameron. Put simply, much of the poll evidence suggests Cameron has created self inflicted wounds by appearing too much the PR man at a stage when voters are looking for dull gravitas. In this, Brown appears to have caught the mood. For the Tories this distinct shift of sentiment should be very worrying – a percieved crisis will make people even less likely to back a lightweight, even if they don’t like the incumbent.
According to this poll, Cameron is the least popular of the three leaders. Net approval ratings: Brown on +32, Campbell -5, Cameron -8. Could it be that Cameron is now dragging the Conservatives down, rather than up? Or, is the mention of economic problems enough to remind people of what happened 15 years ago and who was in charge then?
Also, the government seem to have got away with the Northern Rock problem so far without really doing that much apart from making promises. No doubt if there is more to come, then perhaps things will change.
I don’t think the events of 1992 are responsible for this. I think 15 years is long enough that most people are just about ready to put it behind them.
I think theres a lot of issue’s behind what we’re seeing in this poll, but basically it boils down to the same thing. Brown is still enjoying his honeymoon. Last month it looked like it was fading, but now it looks like he is still riding quite high. Of course, it won’t last forever, honeymoons never do, so Labour should probably start thinking about making hay while the sun shines.
As for Cameron, well there absolutely NO comfort to be taken out of these polls. Whichever way you look at it, they are complete disaster for him and his party. I don’t really know where he should go from here to tell the truth. He just has to keep plugging away and hope Brown doesn’t call an election before the honeymoon fades, but basically the Conservative Party are in a pretty dire position tonight.
Just as an aside to that, I would also say this ICM poll (haven’t seen the details on Populus) should ease some of the pressure on Ming and the Libs. 20% is a much more comfortable position for them. Its the Consevrtaives that will be crying into the cornflakes in the morning and lamenting their lot…. Again.
20% is a lot better than of late for Ming but could that just be a “conference boost”, or the benefit of a Conservative slump? Saying that “others” aren’t doing so well here.
“could that just be a “conference boost””
Unlikely as the polling period was Thursday to Sunday so pre-conference (and the publicity out of conference hasn’t been great for Ming). A bit of a boost for the closing days of conference but Lib Dems will wait for more news. Awful for Cameron – this is “back in the box” levels of support and the personal ratings are even worse. He will be praying for better news to come.
Interesting poll – The Libs up to a figure they are likely to come within 2 points of at an election, Labour up again (amusing comment from someone who asked is this a double bounce!) which suggests that people do consider Brown/Darling a safer bet than Cameron/Osborne to handle the economy and the Tories down a little.
I think what this poll shows,is that with the best will in the world, Cameron and Osborne have just not got what is required. They should be steaming ahead right now, yet they are not trusted in an economically difficult time and their appeal seems to diminish each time a new policy review is announced. It clearly isn’t working and maybe some in the ranks of Tory advisors are even greener than they realise! Maybe they should get Maggie back before Gordon grabs her!
The Libs, in the face of adversity with rumblings about Ming yet again, seem to be doing ok and as Charles Kennedy said yesterday, the last thing they need is a change of leader right now. Ming Campbell will return them 18% or more in a GE in my opinion, which is pretty respectable considering the present political landscape.
Anthony, you have mentioned all along that Brown will probably not call an early election and for the reasons you have stated, you are probably right, although I must say I have disagreed with that view, simply because I do not think Brown will fall into the same trap as Callaghan. If and a big IF, the present economic difficulties show a bigger swing to Labour because of how they have handled the financial problems that the banks are suffering, then surely Brown will call soon.
As I previously mentioned, I wonder how long it will be before the BoE meddlers realise the problem they have created, similarly to the FED in the USA and cut interest rates. I note the Fed reduced today by 0.5% and the BoE reduced its lending rate to the banks down to 5.75% from 6.75%. I wonder if the penny has dropped yet that all of this could have been avoided had they not unnecesarily put up base rates from 5.25% to 5.75% in quick sucession. This increase caused major problems for the banks and business but clearly does not affect most mortgage holders (yet!) who are on fixed rates. Could they really not understand that simple fact? Base rates must be reduced to an economically sensible level, they are 0.5% too high, unless of course you want to engineer a property crash and put the economy in recession which is totally pointless!
The BoE have created a problem that they should have forseen, but of course the majority on the panel hold a completely different view of economics than that held by economists with, lets say a wider understanding of how the UK economy stays in growth rather than recession!
I disagree that Cameron and the Tories should be “steaming ahead” at this point Richard. Brown is on honeymoon. He only took over 3 months ago, so in some way its to be expected that his honeymoon is still going on. ALL new PM’s get them and its nothing new. In that context, I don’t think Tories should be too disheartened. But the worrying aspect for them is that after the dip in August, off the back of the Rhys Jones killing, the lead appears to be extending again.
This latest POLL actually highlights the misconception that a lot of the people who comment on here have that Liberal votes would mostly go to the Labour Party – a 2% swing to the Liberals directly from the Tories in this latest poll contradicts this and shows that the majority of any loss of Liberal support in the future or at a general election will go right rather than left – mmm !
Interestingly looking at the previous 9 POLLS from ICM they have consistently given better results to the Liberals than any other pollster – averaging 19.4% since the 24th April .
The only logical conclusion is that the British public have gone collectivly insane and therfore really will not get the message untill their keys are handed into the building sociaty.
However experience and a swift history lesson in contempory British political history would indicate that as far as the Conservative party is concerned untill things get that bad its just as well they stay out of it and carry on making a very fast personal buck or two.
In all honesty can we blame them?
The Brown honeymoon can’t really explain Cameron’s poor personal rating, particularly among his own party’s supporters. Cameron’s poor rating among his own voters has interesting implications for turnout (remember the Bromley by-election?) If it comes to an election where the Conservatives are not expected to win, will their supporters bother to vote to express confidence in a leader they don’t like and who many would want to step down the day after the election?
Ming has almost as poor a net rating as Cameron among voters as a whole but his decent net rating among Lib Dem voters suggests he will have less trouble motivating supporters. Brown has a very strong rating among Labour voters which will please him, but there is a honeymoon element there.
What is the shortest ever length of time a Prime Minister has served before losing an election? Surely Brown is too cautious to go to the polls this year. Even a Tory meltdown wouldn’t tempt him to take any sort of risk. If he had a radical new agenda, then he could claim it was necessary to seek a new mandate, but there’s no hint of that, and he hasn’t had time to establish himself firmly enough. I wonder what the effect on Cameron’s ratings would be if Campbell decided to go? Would a LibDem bounce take points from Labour, or from the Conservatives?
Not good for the Tories, a breif respite because of the crime issue! We have the Labour Conference to come! So that could add a few % to Labour’s rating then we have Tories Conference (can they hold their nerve?)
Not sure if I am right but hasn’t Labour’s lead in the polls being of historic proportions? Havne’t they predominately been ahead now for 15 years?
Was has been the Tories best OP result?
Mike – careful about assuming that if one party goes up and another party goes down people have necessarily switched from one to the other. Polls nearly always conceal a lot of churn under the surface, this poll shows Labour up 1, but in theory it’s possible that Labour have actually lost 2 points to the Lib Dems, but gained 3 from Conservatives and others….we really can’t tell (plus there are also that big body of don’t knows and won’t votes out there, it plausible that movement is just as much about people moving in and out of that group!)
John T – obviously it’s impossible to say. When the Lib Dems used to always increase during election campaigns it was normally at the expense of Labour.
Mike Richardson’s comments seem to be contradicted by what the Guardian reports about the poll: “Only a quarter of current Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters say they might vote Tory instead. Around half of them say that they might move from Labour to the Lib Dems, or vice versa. That suggests the so-called anti-Tory progressive consensus remains a reality.”
This poll is not just superficially good for Brown and Labour – ahead on voting intentions, key issues and popularity as leader. It’s indicative of the failiure of Cameron to either capture vital centre ground voters or persuade the majority of his Party that moving to the centre ground is essential to win power. Blair and New Labour successfully did that 1994-1997, clearly the bulk of Conservatives still feel they need not change and that the voters – and power – will return to them by right at some point.
Jake – with the exception of 2006 and early 2007 (which was almost sold Tory leads) and the middle part of 1992 (again solid Tory leads), Labour have prodominantly been ahead in the polls since 1989.
It might be a statement of the obvious, but when the polls dominate the headlines, they create terrible difficulties for the “losers” and great opportunities for the “winners” It is Cameron who now has to face his party and the electorate at the same time, in appalling difficulty, when a financial crisis, and looming industrial unrest really ought to have given Brown sleepless nights writing his speech, not to mention his courtship of Lady T, job creation for his former opponents, and controvery over the Treatitution. There’s a balance between reporting people’s opinions and reporting the facts and figures that inform those opinions. Until that balance shifts in his favour, Cameron can only hope he’ll be treated to a second honeymoon, but to have any chance of that, he’ll need a spectacular conference, and some bad news on the economy.
Thanks Anthony…..
Well that tells us something surely?
At a guess, wouldn’t the Tories need to be recording something like +15% leads for a long time in order to be likely to win?
15% + leads. No I don’t think so really. I’m not sure massive pro government swings closer to an election are as applicable when Labour and the incumbant and the Conservatives in opposition. In the run up to elections, I do not remember seeing a surge in support for an incumbant labour administration at any time in history, but this has oiften been the case with incumbant Conservative administrations.
Why? Because all polls – I believe – favour Labour histroically. People don’t like telling pollsters they are going to vote Conservative- it’s still a dirty word. For that reason the Conservatives are probably likely to do a bit better than polls close to an election are predicting, even a bit beter than exit polls predict.
However, even as basically a floating voter I find this poll pretty depressing. I do not want to live in a one party state and do not think an increaced Labour majority at the next election would be healthy for our democracy.
I also think the Conservatves would be very stupid to ditch Cameron. Have they learned nothin about stabbing leaders in the last few years? The guy had them ahead in the polls for eighteen months, and then, a new PM comes in, Cameron says soemthign silly about grammar schools, goes to Rwanda when his constituencey gets flooded, and hey presto, he’s miles behind again. I do not really think this change in political fortunes is concrete by any means, but the one way for Conservatives to ensure it stays that way is to immeediatly desire to shoot the leader. I do, however, not really think Osborne is so great, I feel he seems too young as a figure to inspire public trust and a belief that he is wise.
John T – bingo. Polls are rubbish at actually predicting an election tomorrow. If there really was an election tomorrow, then everyone would have fully fledged manifestos and the last three weeks would have been full of campaigning, and they weren’t. The real importance of polls is that they set the political environment, now all the media coverage will be in the context of Cameron being behind and Brown having a nice lead (and, almost certainly, dominated by speculation over an early election).
Jake, no. They need to lead by somewhere in the region of 10 points for one single day. It just needs to be the right day
More seriously, in the last two Parliaments the old model of the government falling in the polls mid term and then recovering towards the election hasn’t really held. Equally, politics isn’t mechanical, because a party is X points ahead or behind one cannot predit it will automatically lose or gain Y points by election time. There’s no period the Conservatives need to be ahead for, they just need to be around 10 points (on a uniform swing, in practice I suspect it would be somewhat less) ahead come the election to gain an overall majority.
Lukw – Ten years into the Conservative’s last period of office, Labour had no chance, eventhough they could point to high unemployment and a boom in consumer credit. Throughout the eighteen years it never felt like a one-party state, though I imagine another win for Major in 1997 would have changed that. The Conservative Party will return, there are enough floating voters to ensure that, but they need to be patient and allow new ideas to evolve. Having said that, it was Major’s soapbox that came to the rescue in the 1992 campaign, maybe there’s a headline-grabbing gimmick up Cameron’s sleeve?
As I predicted (self congratulatory slap on the back), the mini Tory revival was based on nothing more than Cameron having more face time off the back of a few grim crime related headlines. Cameron will need to do a great deal more to achieve a long term gain that will give him the kind of lead he needs to form a government. Having some policies would certainly help. I suspect the public are now slightly indifferent and cynical towards the constant stream of policy reviews which ultimately add up to nothing more than a passe partout wish list until such time as Dave sits down and explains precisely which recommendations will become policies and how he will pay for them.
Likewise Labour’s increasing lead is a direct result of Brown having more face time. I do not think we have seen the full effects of the Northern Rock issue play out and until we have more polls, we cannot yet draw firm conclusions. That said, for now it seems that the public have a great deal more trust in Brown/Darling than Cameron/Osborne. It is not enough for Osborne to say after the fact that the government should have done more to avert the Norther Rock crisis. What does he say that the Tories would have done differently? Tighter regulation and more intervention which would run counter to basic conservative principles? The public know the difference between opposition and opportunism.
The good news for the Tories is that Brown has not been properly tested and there are weaknesses that they can exploit. The worry for them is that it seems that they do not presently have the leadership or the strategy to exploit it.
As I have said before if I were Brown I would seriously consider going to the polls if he holds a lead of over 5 points after the conference season but my suspicion is that he won’t.
The British people do not like too many elections. They punish parties with comfortable majorities who go too early – witness Wilson in 1970 and Heath in February 1974. This parliament is just over 2 years old. I cannot envisage the deep-thinking, measured and cautious Brown going for an election until at least 2009. With regard to the present standing of the Conservative Party I suggest they seem to have only two public faces – those of Cameron and Osborne. Neither has those qualities of gravitas, ballast and flair that inspire confidence and trust. ‘Boy George’ is no Kenneth Clark or Nigel Lawson and ‘Dave’ is no Harold Macmillan or Margaret Thatcher. The party would do better to have some of their more experienced elder statesmen gracing the media.
Jake: ‘The Brown honeymoon can’t really explain Cameron’s poor personal rating, particularly among his own party’s supporters’
I agree with the principle, but is it possible that Cameron’s ratings are suffering because of potential Tory voters comparing his PR-driven, superficial image with Brown’s solid, no-nonsense, boringly competent one? Particularly after Blair, and at a time of (perceived) crisis, Brown’s image seems to chime with what the public want, and Cameron must by now be worrying that he’s chosen the wrong PM to copy!
Oh, and Mike Richardson: 10 days to go! Tick (and indeed) tock…
well no because in 1997 when Labour were elected they remained ahead the whole parliament (a 1st I believe?)
I am not so sure about shy Tories tbh, well not as significant as in 1992.
What about shy Labourites, been in power now 10 years?
Weighted Moving Average is 34:39:17 not much change really. If the public really thinks that Northern Rock was a triumph for Brown … the mind boggles. We’ll see what happens. I don’t think an Oct election was ever a real possibility – so long as the Tories don’t start to panic we’ll have an interesting 2008.
Arnie – I can’t see the Labour lead being down to more Brown face-time. It probably would boost Labour (in fact, he wasn’t around much when the lead narrowed, so it could have been partly an absence of Brown!), but he wasn’t actually around much last weekend. IIRC his first public comment on Northern Rock was after the fieldwork for this poll had been completed.
Jake – at least prior to Gordon Brown becoming leader there were indeed shy Labour voters. The adjustments ICM and Populus make to their figures to account for “shy Tories” don’t automatically favour the Conservatives, in fact after around 2002 they began to favour Labour, winkling out “bashful Blairites”.
ChrisC – it probably can to some degree actually. I mean to do a post looking at the actual questions asked on the leader ratings at some point, but I suspect that a fair amount of people judge how well Cameron and Campbell are doing as leaders of their respective parties by how well they are doing in the polls. If the Tories are leading Labour, they think Cameron’s doing well and approve. If not, they think he’s doing badly and disapprove. I think the way the questons are asked may well mean they are led by the voting intention figures, rather than measuring a factor that goes into them. A better question might be to ask people how well they think Cameron and Campbell would do if they were Prime Minister – it would be a hypothetical question of course, and people wouldn’t actually have a very good idea of how they’d do, but then, come a general election they have to actually make that judgement.
John H – Wilson didn’t go early in June 1970 – it was a few months over the typical four years in fact. Heath went a little early in 1974 (3 years and 8 months) but not wildly so. Wilson went very early in 1966 and won big.
There is probably some argument that Brown shouldn’t go with a working majority (indeed a fairly large majority). But the opposition parties cannot make that point as both have enthusiastically called for an early election (they have been enthusiastic in public anyway).
With all the worries about Northern Rock and the economy in general recently I can’t help thinking the Tories would have been much better off with Ken Clark as leader. I think he was basically seen by most as a good chancellor and he is one of the few faces on the Tory benches that may have been able to attack Brown’s record with some credibility.
Being a member of the Labour party I’m obviously biased but I really can’t see Cameron ever becoming PM. Maybe the Conservatives would be better to ditch him – perhaps a resignation after the next election would save them from looking like they stabbed another leader in the back.
Do any of the pollsters publish approval ratings for other members of the cabinet/shadow cabinet other than the leaders?
While we are all focusing on NR we are forgetting that this poll was done around the time that the Goldsmith report was being hammered in the press. If nobody in the media was blaming Brown for what was happening at Northern Rock why would it produce a swing to the Tories?
It bwill be interesting to seee voter support breakdown on the figures for Camerons popularity.
If he is falling with tory voters then it’s not so big a problem if they will still vote Tory anyway. The issue to worry him is that if they think he can’t win, then they may drift to the LibDems or even UKIP BNP.
Cameron and the Tories still need to keep there nerve if they are to have any chance of winning, and to focus there attentions on people who haven’t been voting Tory. If they retreat in to their core support again they are finished and the election is lost regardless of when it’s called.
Cameron took the tories into their first lead in a decade because he was the first Tory leader since major to appeal beyond the parties traditional supporters. If he fails to do that again because the party want him to sound “More Tory”, then they’ll be back to playing Russsian roulette with five loaded chambers.
Personally there’s not much I like more than seeing the Tories getting a good kicking, but from a polling and electoral sense, I find it frustrating that beyond Cameron and those close to him, his entire party don’t seem to have a clue as to why what he’s being trying to do is the only possible way that they can ever win an election.
Peter.
Steven, no – and they are largely anonymous. I suspect very few people could recognise Chris Grayling or David Heath, let alone say whether they approved of the job they were doing.
Arnie – “The good news for the Tories is that Brown has not been properly tested”. Apart from two terrorist attacks, major flooding, foot and mouth, handling Iraq/Bush, Northern Rock…oh, and overseeing a stable and growing economy for the past ten years
First post here – excellent site, many thanks Anthony.
At what point would people say: this isn’t a bounce, it is a lead based on the preferences rather than novelty? Do we have any help from previous bounces on how long, historically, it takes for gravity to do its work?
I think Ken C should be shadow chancellor. Shadow chancellor is the only shaow cabinet role (except home secretary) which gets any real media attention, and having another (albeit talented) young man at the treasury doesn’t really inspire confidence. Youfulness and dynamism is great in a leader, but for the chancellor you want a man to make people feel safe. Clarke would be poerfect for this- because (oddly) even though the Tory reputation on the econmy is pretty terrible, Clarke retains a positive perception as a chancellor. I think that would probably make a big difference.
Osborne should be given deputy leader or something, he seems a bit too young in the public eyes to take on such a large portfolio.
Had a look at the ICM August Poll on Brown and he has a ^$% approval rating from LibDems, that would seem to suggest that if LibDems are going anywhere it is more to labour than the Tories.
If there is a 2-35 recovery in the LibDems and Labour is still going up then the tories must be losing some to the LibDems and some to others, as the “Cameron can win” factor starts to fail.
Even if the Blair bounce fails it’s not clear if enough of the fall in Browns vote will go to the Tories to get the defectors to the likes of UKIp to come back on to the winnin g ticket.
A bit like the NR situation, it’s all about perception and confidence, whether ex tories come back is as much to do with whether they think he can win as whether they like his policies.
Large parts of the Labour Party never liked (and either loathed) Blair, but they stuck with him and backed him because he was a winner. Cameron has to convince his own party next week that he is a winner, and they have to greet him as one, even if they have to jhold there noses while doing so.
Peter.
Gups
I think the bounce aspect is still very strong, augmented by the extremely cost effective “poster” and strapline “not flash, just Gordon” – they won’t even have to rent the billboards for that to take hold. The bounce will remain until his luck runs out with regard to the effects of events, such as the terrorist bombs (they didn’t go off), the floods (natural disaster which co-incided with Cameron’s trip to Rwanda), foot and mouth (contained better than last time), the “run” on Northern Rock (it fizzled very quickly), Iraq (slightly improved).
I don’t think many voters ally themselves on the basis of who they think will win, but on a gut feeling of who represents their own interests, and it’s too early to tell if Gordon’s ideas are prevailing there.
Don’t forget another thing. Brown had to wait ten years to become Prime Minister. He’s not going to risk throwing it away after a few months, unless he’s 100% certain of a win.
CHRIS C :-
Yes thank you for reminding everyone of my prediction of a Tory lead in the POLLS by the end of September – with the ticking clock – don’t forget how close they came just recently with 1% and an even status in the POLLS with Labour – once again i stand by my prediction of a Tory lead in the POLLS by the end of September – very latest first week of October . These two latest POLLS are down to an unknown factor which occur right up to any general election .
As for the constant speculation of a a few posters on here that the Tory vote may go to UKIP or the BNP – UKIP is a spent force in UK politics and the BNP even though it is a right wing organisation , it’s main support comes from working class Labour constituencies .
The Tories need a low Liberal vote to cash in on getting a chunk of the vulnerable Liberal seats – at 15% share of the POLLS recently the Tories could grab as many as 30 Liberal seats . Discontented Tories would never vote Labour – they virtually all go to the Liberals or stay at home .
The Tories would still probably have been in the lead if Tony Blair was still the Prime Minister. Labour’s lead has come about almost entirely due to the novelty of a new PM.
It will be interesting to see what the polls look like after the party conference season, which seems crucial for all the parties this year.
As I’ve mentioned before, an election announcement could suddenly sway things the other way, as we saw at the 1970 general election. Labour’s lead reached double figures in that campaign.
Mike Richardson, I know people who have gone straight to Labour from Tory and straight to Tory from Labour.
Andy, I do not think it is the novelty of a new PM which has restored Labour’s lead so much as the replacement of a very unpopular PM with one who so far has impressed most people with his handling of the myriad of difficult situations which have been thrown his way.
I imagine that the Goldsmith/Gummer report did the Conservatives no good at all, but we’ll have to see if this is just a one-off.
I think the way that the Labour Party has sidelined its dissenters will have impressed the public who I suspect are in an increasingly authoritarian mood. High crime rates and financial turmoil do not normally make people think about recycling.
The problem for the Tories is that they and their core supporters just do not seem to understand that middle England does not want high interest rates and restrictions on who can borrow what. Whatever happened to that much trumpeted Tory view of letting people take the responsiblity for their own lives, without government intervention or have we gone back to the old Tory way of thinking that the working and middle classes cannot be trusted with their own finances so we must impose restrictions upon the peasants to keep them reigned in!
The Tories should have elected Davies and Clarke, not Cameron and certainly not my local M.P Osborne! Most people realise that Cameron and Osborne have not the faintest idea of what style of economy the working and middle classes need to survive and have probably little idea of how to handle a financial crisis and for that matter neither it appears have most Tory sympathisers, which is the root of the Tory problem.
Davies and Clarke would be real hard hitters and would certainly be a match to Brown and Darling but have the Tories got the nerve to do it? I don’t think so.
The Brown ‘bounce’ is certainly made up of at least 3% who have returned to Labour after Blair left – rightly or wrongly he had become a liability. It is not just the fact Brown is new, it is that Brown isn’t Blair and also Brown, whether we like it or not, is a phenominal opponent, intelligent and very experienced so he has the answers to problems before they crop up and does not need to rely on soundbites like Blair did and Cameron does.
The conferences will just end up boosting every party by 2% or so when it’s their turn on T.V but it will soon slip back again as it always does. The party with the last conference has the best chance of retaining that boost, particularly if an election were announced!
If the Libs go home to prepare for Government and Brown sends his troops home to prepare for an election, I wonder where the Tories will go home to – to the Libs I would say and good luck to them, Ming Campbell is an honest, decent man that deserves some recognition.
I really cannot see Labour getting much more than a 70 seat majority right now so there has to be the question of why bother, but the reason for doing so is to gain 2.5 years more for Brown before the election after next has to be called by which time it is highly likely that the rough patch in the economy will be well and truly over and all will be well again for a possible 5th victory for Labour, when undoubtedly the Tories would still be facing leadership problems because Cameron would have gone, Clarke will have had enough and with respect, be too old and Davies will have lost his edge. That is the main reason Brown would call soon. He is a long term thinker – he has had to be!:)
Looking at question 13 of the ICM poll (second choice party)there’s some hope for Ming (especially in constituencies where there’s a bit of tactical voting) but as far as I can tell no hope at all for Cameron as Labour appears to be ahead of the Tories on second preferences as well.
I find it interesting that you can actually tell which poster favours which party just by the take on each poll.Each seem to take any crumb of comfort they can wangle out of any statistic on any given poll.
My take is this,Camerons lead was not down to Cameron or the acceptance of Conservative policy,but against a very unpopular PM.
The difference in style between Brown and Blair could not be wider and it is unlucky for the Conservatives that they picked a leader who’s decided to ape the PM who was on a crest of a slump.
It come as no surprise that Browns dour steady approach has been accepted by the electorate,as poll after poll showed that they had become bored then disliked Blairs type of style,whilst he was PM.I’m amazed no one at Central office with their sponsored polls and focus groups that all parties have should have told them this.
Mike R – Like the way I’ve had to reset the old ticking clock to first week in October.Though I doubt the extra week will make much difference….tic toc tic toc.
wolf, your comment about crime is very true but you should have said perception about crime, under Labour crime has gone down by almost 50% while under the Tories it went up by 100% (whichever figures you use, either the crime survey figures or the crime reported figures), I know that means that it is back to how it was in 1979.
Tony J; Of course, it may not take people long to get bored with Browns dour, steady approach. You know, at one time John Major made a refreshing change to the strong-willed Mrs T, but people soon became fed up with him. People will, at some point, become bored with Brown, I think. Whether he has won an election by then though, remains to be seen.
Anthony, is there any historical conference boost data?
Good News Jose Mourinho has Left Chelsea.
Bring on the Title for the Gunners Arsenal the best team in London.
Hope Arsenal win the Title!
The Lib Dems will prove people wrong in the Polls and possibly will have 50 MP’s next time or more like 80 MP’s would be great gaining loads off seats off the Tories and Labour!
Gin – Major actually won an election.Maybe when the electorate go off dour and steady and move back to enigmatic,the Conservatives will most probably choose wrong again.
Boris for PM…heheheh!
People didn’t get “bored” with Major as such though, GIN. They mainly just lost confidence in his ability to run a bath let alone a country. It’s true that he also lost his freshness somewhat but that wasn’t his main problem.
Tony Jones – couldn’t agree more. It really doesn’t say much for the Tories that the best they could do was find someone to copy the style of the incumbent PM (presumably because he won 3 elections) just as he became largely unpopular! Against Blair, Cameron looked OK but against Brown I suspect he looks opportunistic, superficial, and lighweight. The Tories have embraced spin over substance at the exact moment that the electorate turned strongly against it.
[...] Risky, no? Not that anyone’s listening. Even if the only time this was done, the pro-membership side won convincingly, and every government that has been elected since 1970 has been more or less supportive of the EU, this positively frightens me. The upshot? The Prime Minister may be tempted to shoot the fox; more like sweep the whole field with a machine gun. That would be achieved by calling an election with ratification as a manifesto commitment; which may just have become more likely. [...]
TONY JONES :-
No adjustment of your clock – depends on when the POLLS come out – so the first week of October is perfectly reasonable / you went very quiet a week or so ago when there was only a 1% gap and level pegging – that was no blip – just a fore taste of upcoming POLLS as i predicted .
Cameron may not be the ideal choice for a lot of Conservatives including myself – but no matter what the POLLS may say or commenters on here may wish for – he will not be leaving as leader of the party before the next election .
No matter what the POLLS may say from now to the next election whenever that may be – it’s wishful thinking of most on here to expect an increase in the Labour or Liberal seats . Even if an election were called tomorrow – even based on the current POLLS – the best Brown could expect is a hung parliament . There is only one of the 3 main parties that has consistently increased it’s seats in Westminster / Europe / local elections since Cameron came to power and that’s the Tories – why should that change now ?
Anthony, any idea when we can expect the next poll? Populus seem to be releasing some sort of poll in instalments. By the time they actually disclose the voting intention figures, the data will be over a week old!
Arnie, that’s their conference season poll. They do it every year, they ask lots of questions and release it bit by bit through the season. There isn’t a proper voting intention question in it.
MORI should turn up at some point, next scheduled one is ICM in a week or so. I suspect however that Nothern Rock and the 8 point lead might well have lead to some paper or other commissioning polls for the weekend, so we may get something sooner.
Interesting.There were 43 000 people in prison in 1979 and 80 000 today yet recorded crime has gone down.
On another note do the parties commission polls as to why they’re seen as the way they are. And how much do party funders influence policy? Or is that a silly question?
[...] And the signs are that Tony’s successor might have the Ferguson touch too. [...]
Mike R – You could say the first week in December and you will still be wrong.Cameron has never been a great orator,so this will be another Conference season where he bombs.
With regards the poll,how can you say that an 8% lead would only give him an hung parliament.Even Com Res/which has always had the smallest percentages for Labour,shows 3% lead.
Time will tell,well 10 days time will tell…tic toc.
wolf, don’t forget that people are sent to prison for longer now and that in 1997 there were about the same number in prison as now and at that time crime was about 100% more than it is now. Also the way a crime is counted has changed, in 1997 if someone walked along the pavement scrating the painwork of 10 cars that would count as one crime, now that counts as 10, also in 1997 if there was no evidence of a crime (i.e. you left the front door open, someone walked in and stole cash from your wallet) that was not counter, now it is once the crime is reported, with or without evidence.
Gary G – Exactly right re the crime figures. Perhaps the number in prisons has risen because all the Tories were locked up! On a serious note, the fact is more criminals are being jailed for longer than under the previous administration. that does not necessarily mean there are MORE criminals, just more being caught and more being locked up.
Tony Jones and Chris C – absolutely right re the Tories chosing Cameron. I said on here when he was elected Tory leader than it showed how out of touch they were, electing a poor mimic of Blair – just when the country wanted someone of substance and not Blairite spin!
Did someone mention that based on the current polls that the best Brown could hope for at present was a hung parliament? Mmmmm – sounds like a Tory economist getting his sums wrong again! A candidate for Mervin’s job at the Bank Of England there!Tic toc!
No offence meant
Cameron could well come into his own on a three week election campaign, when his superior communication skills and general empathy (as opposed to Brown’s frigid awkwardness) may close the gap.
If the Tories gather together the sensible – and more popular – options from their many reports into a manifesto, the gap could close still further.
No one’s suddenly decided ‘We want an old-fashioned, boring PM’. This is media spiel in which everything is black and white. It’s much more nuanced than that. Fact is, Brown has taken over at a rather fortuitous time for a Prime Minister.
Only the most incompetant would struggle with Foot & Mouth, Floods and Bombs. All the PM has to do is look like he’s racing back from his holidays and holding late night cobra meetings. Brown has done this, and has no doubt secretly enjoyed these incidents as it perpetuates his image as ’steady hand on the tiller’.
An election campaign is altogether different. As chancellor he cut flood defence and DEFRA’s budget with regards Pirbright etc. Three of the main issues at the next election could well be a) crime b) trust (eg his failure to call a referendum, not the issue of Europe passe), and – possibly – c) immigration. Brown and Labour have weak lines on all three, and expect at least the falling of Labour MPs from the entirety of the South East (not inc London).
Obviously this isn’t much for Cameron to cheer about, winning more seats in the heartlands, but it could well weaken the Labour majority because, despite these polls, I very much doubt a Brown government would actually increase its majority.
Wolf – of course parties commisson polls on how they are seen! Whenever a politician comes out with the old “the only poll that counts is the one on polling day” chestnut my immediate thought is always “So why does your party spend hundreds of thousands of pounds commissioning polls then?”
“There is only one of the 3 main parties that has consistently increased it’s seats in Westminster / Europe / local elections since Cameron came to power and that’s the Tories – why should that change now ?”
There have been neither Westminster or Europe elections since Cameron took charge of the Tories. Local elections are most definitely not a barometer of Westminster elections for a variety of reasons including the fact that there’s an election everywhere, there are different issues, ‘protest’ voting is not an option, the media cover them differently, it’s for a different body etc…
Anthony – I think Wolf’s question was whether polls ever ask the follow-up question “Why?” I think they save that for focus groups, but I’m sure the answers, if given honestly and without being narrowed by multiple choice, would confuse them as much as enlighten them. I would hope that most people decide after weighing up the arguments, anbd considering moral/wthical questions as well as economic ones, but maybe hair-colour comes into it too for some!
Anthony,
Quite right.
For all the parties (including my own, who use YouGov) the poll that counts is the one that tells them what people will support and especially will vote for.
They also like the recent one from the LibDems ask “planted” questions designed to get people to say yes to the parties policies, effectively polls as propoganda.
So you get the Libdems asking things like…
“Do you support a cut in basic taxation which will help most hard working families on below average income”,
While the next day announcing that they are planning to cut the basic rate from 20% to 16%.
(This even though when Brown announced cutting it from 22% to 20%, they attacked it saying raising tax thresholds would be fairer as it was only worth £100 to someone on £10,000 but £600 to someone on £35,000. Why you’d think that they had decided to target Tory voters as the make up of there target seats changed).
Peter.
Good speech by Sir Ming yesterday.
A strong 3rd party is good for the country.
Still hoping for an election this year.
What the polls give the polls take away stay calm.
Steve Sillence says; ‘Only the most incompetant would struggle with Foot & Mouth, Floods and Bombs’.
What, like David Cameron did?? I agree these things may have proved to be strangely fortuitous for Brown (it’s an ill wind etc!) but only because they allowed him to demonstrate very clearly the change in style that had occurred with the change in leader, and which seems to chime with what the public want to see. The various crises also point up the lack of real Tory policies and their opportunism – for example George Osborne saying there should have been more regulation/supervision of Northern Rock just a couple of weeks after Redwood’s report called for less! The British people see through such things very easily and that I think is largely why Cameron’s ratings are bombing…
very good local by-election results for Labour last night. Big gains from the Tories in Birmingham & Worcester. It certainly suggests a move to Labour on the ground. A couple more polls with good Labour leads over the next few days and I think we really might see an October election after all
I am still against an October election, although a short campaign would sit a cash starved labour party short on big ideas.
However I think the will he won’t he game is mainly because the last date to announce it pretty much coincideds with Cameron getting to his feet at the Tory conference, and that will have everyone watching two ways.
I wouldn’t put it past brown to have invited the press to Downing St, for an announcement at exactly the time cameron is speaking to announce what will turn out to be something quite banal.
It keps ameron on his toes and leaves the impression that a boring policy change from Brown is more important that Camerons key note speech of the year.
Peter.
I think this autumn is Brown’s best bet at re-election and gives Cameron his least chance of getting an outright majority (which I still think is possible for us to get, though not at all likely this autumn).
However I’m still firmly convinced Brown wouldn’t call an election. After coveting the Premiership for so long, why risk it so early? There is a good chance he would lose an outright majority at least and end up in a Hung Parliament, why risk it when he still has years to go?
is there a link to where you can access byelection results?
Jake, here is a good site:
http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/
Has full results from 1996 to now.
Anthony,
Anything on the ICM Newsnight Poll, I just caught the details on the BBC web site.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7006852.stm
Peter.
Jake,
I found these listed by a poster on politicalbetting:
Birmingham City – Brandwood: Lab 1998, C 1663, BNP 290, Lib Dem 285, Green 193, Ind 157, Ukip 64, New Nationalist Party 25. (May 2007 – C 2646, Lab 2231, Lib Dem 730, BNP 588, Green 448). Lab gain from C. Swing 6.6% C to Lab.
Caerphilly County Borough – Moriah: Lab 638, Ind 230. (June 2004 – Two seats Lab 893, 838, Plaid Cymru 273). Lab hold.
Copeland Borough – Harbour: Lab 463, C 337, BNP 245. (May 2007 – Three seats Lab 656, 574, 556, C 412, 403, 385). Lab hold. Swing 3.7% Lab to C.
Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough – Abbey: Lab 807, BNP 457, Lib Dem 409, C 329, Green 115, Ind 10. (May 2006 – Lab 736, Lib Dem 676, C 480). Lab gain from Lib Dem. Swing 13.2% Lib Dem to Lab.
Pembrokeshire County – Pembroke St Michael: C 251, Lib Dem 242, Ind 184, Lab 142. (June 2004 – Lib Dem 472, Ind 336). C gain from Lib Dem.
Southend-on-Sea Borough – Shoeburyness: Ind 666, C 494, Lab 460, BNP 273, Lib Dem 66. (May 2007 – C 788, Ind 658, Lab 481, BNP 315, Lib Dem 107). Ind gain from C. Swing 5.6% C to Lab.
Wigan Borough – Wigan West: Lab 837, Lib Dem 464, BNP 264, Community Action Party 219, Ind 72, Green 60. (May 2007 – Lab 1388, C 563, Community Action Party 560, BNP 402). Lab hold. Swing 2.0% Lab to BNP.
Worcester City – St Clement: Lab 604, C 478, BNP 166, Ukip 122, Green 52. (May 2007 – C 879, Lab 409, BNP 281, Green 209). Lab gain from C. Swing 17.6% C to Lab.
Anthony, my apologise for cluttering this thread with these but it’s my only means of letting Jake know.
Thanks Mate,
Well they are polls, just real ones and a cross section of the country as well.
Not good news for the Tories or Lib Dems…
Jake
As Chris already pointed out, I am amazed to hear Osborne today urging the government to bring in tighter control and more regulation in the financial services sector! Is this really the same man that sat next to John Redwood only a matter of days ago nodding his head and agreeing that the financial services sector should have LESS government interference, less control and be more self regulating?????
This type of Tory hypocrisy is endemic! Please get a grip and provide some real opposition based on beliefs! Whatever headline next – It will be Chameleon and Zac buy a 4×4 each because the driver’s lobby say bicycles are a menace?!!!!
Dave Hawk -were all those council by-elections last night or old ones?
It’s interesting, but I’ve also been looking at recent (from mid August) council by election results posted on
http://www.aldc.org and these also indicate a generally pooor performance from the Tories. I hesitate as it is a LD website, so I don’t know if it lists all contests (although it does show some LD losses), but there are sufficient Tory losses and Labour gains to suggest the opinion polls are accurately reflecting actual voter sentiments.
As I’ve said before, the big gap that has opened up between Labour & the Tories on individual issues and questions of competence is I think more significant than the headline lead – it shows an inherent weakness in the Tory poll position, and a clear sign that Cameron has failed to capitalise on his opportunity. There was a period during Blair’s long goodbye when Cameron could have established the new Tory brand – he missed the chance, Brown capitalised, and the Tories are back where they started.
I have just been looking at the Newsnight poll Peter mentioned. It says Labour are 12 points up when asked about the economy irrespective of voting intention.
I find it hard to believe that many people saying they’d support the Conservatives in intention polls would say Labour or Liberal had better policies on the economy.
Does this mean that more people who say they are unlikely to vote in intention polls would vote Labour if forced?
Does this mean
Yuogov poll in tomorrows Telegraph with changes to last Yougov ST poll Con 33 -1 Lab 39 N/C LibDem 16 +1 Others 12 N/C
Looking behind the headlines of the Sept ICM poll, the Labour lead looks a lot less impressive in the South than in the North.
Again it’s the same old story, what matters is getting the votes where you need them. Labour having them queing up at the polls is safe seats doesn’t actually increase there majority.
The lead may look good but the Tories can still make gains in target seats even on these figures.
Peter.
Anthony – How do you view the likelihood of Brown calling a G.E the day before Cameron’s speech? I know you have had a differing view to that of mine on when would be a good time to call but is it now too good an opportunity to miss?
If Labour get a further boost of 2% or so, which they will, by the end of their conference, surely it makes sense to call a G.E as Cameron is about to speak – his speach would becaome non-news – It would be likely to negate any boost that the Tories would get from their conference and would surely cause havoc for the Tories with no official policies.
Brown could then also claim to have a mandate regarding his European stance of no referendum if he managed to increase Labour’s majority because his views would have been put openly to the electorate.
Peter: very good point. It’s a bit like the US Presidential election – it’s all very well being ahead in the national vote, but you have to win more states than your opponent.
I still don’t think Brown will call yet – there’s just too much to lose, and things can change very quickly in an election campaign.
Richard,
All eight by-elections took place yesterday.
Many thanks Dave.
Very valid views Oscar. The risk against of course is that the Tory’s can only improve, which undoubtedly they will.
A safe and peaceful weekend to us all
I suddenly feel less confident about my prediction, in view of Douglas Alexander’s latest remarks.