A ComRes poll in the Independent has headline voting intention figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 34%(-2), LAB 37%(+1), LDEM 15%(nc). Like YouGov yesterday it shows a widening of the Labour lead (or in this case, a re-establishment of it). While the changes in YouGov’s poll alone weren’t enough to be confident that anything had changed, the addition of this poll begins to suggest a pattern of labour widening their lead once again.

Unfortunately the poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday last week, so is actually older than the weekend’s YouGov poll and considerably prior to Northern Rock’s difficulties. We await the first poll to give us any real idea of what political impact, if any, the economic wobbles of the last couple of days has had.

Note that in the Independent’s coverage of the poll they say that, if repeated at a general election on a uniform swing, these figures would reduce the Lib Dems to 13 seats. This is wrong: the Independent’s figures are based on the Electoral Calculus calculator which uses a modified proportional swing, on a uniform swing these results would produce a House of Commons with 229 for the Conservatives, 353 seats for Labour and 39 seats for the Liberal Democrats.


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