Two new polls on Monday both show the Conservatives recovering and Labour starting to fall back. Communicate Research, now rebranded as ComRes, have headline figures of CON 36% (+2), LAB 36% (-1), LDEM 15% (-1). It was conducted between August 29th and 30th. A YouGov poll for GMTV has headline figures of CON 35% (+2), LAB 38% (-3), LDEM 15% (+1).

It’s a big change from the YouGov poll a week ago, and backs up the movement that Populus’s private polling had detected. Perhaps doing the fieldwork over the bank holiday weekend produced an unusual sample in the previous YouGov poll, or perhaps this shift in the polls is the direct result of crime moving up the agenda last week and the Conservative announcements on the subject.

In combination with Populus’s private poll last week it looks as though the Brown bounce may have peaked and be on its way back down, or alternately it’s the result of the crime issue being to the fore and the first good week for the Conservatives for a while and the Labour lead will be back up again in a week’s time. Politics is still in flux and we’d probably best wait a bit longer before deciding that it’s all “politics as usual” once again.

More tomorrow.


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