With a huge quantity of elections on Thursday, we also have a huge amount of opinion polling ahead of it. Here is a summary of the polling on this week’s elections and what we can predict about this week’s results from it.

SCOTLAND

The Scottish election race has been heavily polled and with fairly consistent results across polling companies. Everyone has the SNP clearly ahead in both votes, and we can be confident as confident can be that the SNP will win. The broad questions are:

a) How close the SNP will get to an overall majority in their own right, rather than with the Greens
b) Whether Labour or the Conservatives will be in second place
c) Whether Alex Salmond’s Alba party will win any seats

At least six companies have released Scottish polls in the last week or so (and we may well get more tomorrow). Most have shown the SNP around 50% in the constituency vote (SavantaComRes in the Scotsman were lower at 45%, but was conducted a week ago now, so I don’t know if they have another to come). In the regional vote most companies tend to show the SNP at around 36%-41%, with everyone showing the Conservatives in second place on around 22% and Labour third.

It is hard to translate votes into seats with confidence between so many of the final regional seats end up being won by extremely small margins, but it is probably the best way of understanding the interaction between the two votes. The most recent projections have tended to suggest that the SNP may just scrape a majority.

Sky projects 67 seats for the SNP based on the Opinium poll, John Curtice in the Times suggests 68 SNP seats based on the YouGov data. Panelbase in the Sunday Times at the weekend was projected to deliver them 65 seats by Curtice. The Herald’s BMG poll was projected to deliver 68 SNP seats. If the SNP do fall short then they will easily have a pro-independence majority with the Greens anyway, but an outright majority may give them a stronger moral case in the inevitable argument with the UK government over a referendum.

Finally, there is Alba – Alex Salmond’s new party. There has been some difference between polling companies on their projected level of support. For a while Panelbase were giving them around 6% while other companies were giving them derisory support. The final YouGov & Opinium polls did at least see them climbing to 3% (possibly enough to get a seat somewhere depending how unevenly their vote is distributed), while the most recent Panelbase poll had them dropping to 4%.

WALES

In the past Wales has not tended to attract much polling – there have been elections when it was YouGov and no one else. This year has been more interesting, with polls from SavantaComRes, Opinium and ICM. There are final Welsh polls from YouGov and Survation due out out tomorrow (and possibly SavantaComRes too) so we’re not done here yet.

The polling show far has also shown Labour ahead, but by differing amounts. Back in February and March YouGov produced a couple of polls showing the Conservatives within touching distance of Labour. Since then Labour have pulled back ahead, with a lead of 9-11 points on the constituency vote, 7-10 points on the list vote. We will see what the final polls show tomorrow.

LONDON MAYOR

Perhaps the most foregone conclusion that we have polling for – there has never really been the slightest doubt that Sadiq Khan was going to be re-elected as London mayor once Rory Stewart dropped out (even when Stewart was in the race polling showed an easy win for Khan, but at least Stewart had the potential to shake things). Given the race hasn’t been competitive there hasn’t been nearly as much polling as in past years, but we have had two final calls today (and perhaps more to come tomorrow). Both show Khan winning easily.

Opinium’s final call has Khan winning the first round by 48% to Bailey’s 29%, with Porrit in third on 8% and Berry on 7%. Khan wins easily on round two.
YouGov’s final call has Khan slightly lower on the first round, winning by 43% to Bailey’s 31%, with Berry on 10% and Porrit on 5%. Again, Khan wins easily on round two.

MAYORAL ELECTIONS

As well as London, there are elections for seven combined authority mayors (Cambridgeshire, Greater Manchester, Liverpool City Region, Tees Valley, West Midlands, West of England, West Yorkshire). We have polling for two of those, and in the case of the more recent polls, both show incumbents who were initially elected on a knife-edge now cruising to re-election.

The West Midlands mayoralty is being defended by the Conservative Andy Street. We have two decent sized polls there. Redfield & Wilton polled about a fortnight ago and found a 9 point lead for Street on the first round, but only a 2 point lead once second preferences were redistributed. Opinium released a more recent poll on Tuesday morning, commissioned by the Northern Powerhouse Partnership which projected a clearer win for Street – a 17 point lead and victory on the first round.

The only other poll I’m aware of is for the Tees Valley race. This was won by the Conservative incumbent Ben Houchen by an extremely narrow margin in 2017. The only poll is by Opinium. It has a sample size of only 387 (243 once you take out don’t knows and won’t votes) and the size was such that Opinium didn’t have the space to filter for likelihood to vote. For what it’s worth though, the shares were CON 63%, LAB 37% – suggesting a very easy hold for the Conservatives.

HARTLEPOOL

Survation have produced two opinion polls of Hartlepool. The first for the CWU early in the campaign, the second for Good Morning Britain, conducted at the end of April. Constituency polling is a difficult challenge that has a somewhat patchy record, and small sample sizes mean they are large margins of error. That said Survation’s latest poll showed a very solid 17 point lead for the Conservatives, well outside the margin of error. The poll would have to be very wrong indeed for this not to be a Conservative gain.

LOCAL ELECTIONS

Local elections rarely get much polling because of the nature of the contest. There is very uneven pattern of contestation, so many people don’t get a choice between all parties. In many places people get more than one vote so can vote for different parties. From a pollsters point of view, it’s also difficult to know what you are measuring – the “Projected National Share” that the BBC calculate on election night is not the actual shares of the vote – its a projection based on the votes in some key wards – so even if pollsters did ask about local elections, the numbers wouldn’t match the numbers the BBC announced on the night!

Normally the only attempt we get to predict likely gains and losses in local elections is therefore the Rallings & Thrasher modelling based on how people have voted in local council by-elections. This time round the coronavirus lockdown means we’ve had hardly any local council by-elections, so even the Rallings & Thrasher model lies dormant.

Unusually though we have got a couple of predictions using polling data. YouGov released a poll last week of councils that cover Northern & Midlands seats that the Tories won at the last elections (the so-called “Red wall” seats) that was used to project gains and losses here – that predicted Tory councillor gains in those areas.

Meanwhile Electoral Calculus have make predictions of district and unitary councillor gains and losses based on data from newcomers “Find Out Now” (a company that polls people visiting the PickMyPostcode website). Not sure why the county elections were excluded, but there goes. That predicts gains of about 300 seats for both Labour and Conservative, at the expense of Lib Dems and Others (note the overall number of seats rises because council changes). Note that the YouGov fieldwork was mid-April, the Electoral Calculus data last week, so quite possible that it pre-empted some of the recent poor coverage for the Government.

POLICE COMMISSIONER ELECTIONS

The final set of elections on Thursday, and very much the poor relation, are the Police Commissioner elections. Given the lack of public profile these – rather unsurprisingly – don’t appear to have been polled at all (indeed, given the uneven pattern of contestation and the fact I expect many people have no idea they are happening and won’t make their mind up how they’ll vote before being presented with a surprise additional ballot paper on Thursday, they would probably be rather hard to poll if we tried).


17,510 Responses to “Polling ahead of Thursday’s Elections”

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  1. Final YouGov London mayoral voting intention (2-4 May)

    FIRST PREFERENCES
    Sadiq Khan 43% (-4 from 1 Apr)
    Shaun Bailey 31% (+5)
    Siân Berry 10% (+1)
    Luisa Porritt 5% (-2)
    Laurence Fox 3% (-1)

    SECOND ROUND RUN OFF
    Sadiq Khan 59% (-7)
    Shaun Bailey 41% (+7)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/05/04/london-mayoral-voting-intention-khan-43-bailey-31-?

  2. which AW mentioned in this new thread, along with a great round-up of all other recent polling.

    Local elections polling and Electoral Calculus input great to see and for sure CON gains might be a tad lower since fieldwork on that one.

  3. These elections are not far off from being mid term. Labour need to be doing an awful lot better than the polling suggests.

    They will gain some comfort from steady results in London and Wales but results in Birmingham,Tees Valley and Hartlepool look like being very poor in areas they need to be doing a lot better in.

  4. I’ve never seen anyone use the term “contestation” before. I suspect I’ll be quite happy if I never see the term again.

  5. Interesting updates.

    If (or probably when) Labour loses Hartlepool, a probable Labour win in West Yorkshire will lead to the Boris Blue Bandwagon rolling to Batley and Spen.

    In 2019 result:

    Lab – 22,594 – 42.7%
    Con – 19,069 – 36.0%
    Ind – 6,432 – 12.2%
    LD – 2,462 – 4.7%
    BXP – 1,678 – 3.2%
    Grn – 692 – 1.3%

    Lab majority – 3,525 – 6.7%

    Leave/Remain vote from 2016 – 60/40

    The independent candidate is highly unusual (in more ways than one), and campaigned strongly on a hard Brexit ticket. They in fact tried to be the BXP candidate, but was turned down.

    This seat is winnable for the blues if Hartlepool falls, and Batley has HAD a Tory MP from 1983 , losing in 1997.

  6. Sorry the caps lock on for HAD.

    A fat fingered typo.

  7. YG also slipped in a Westminster VI into their London polling (change since 29Mar-1Apr)

    CON: 33 (+2)
    LAB: 51 (+1)
    LDEM: 7 (-1)
    Green: 7 (uc)

    Relevance might be in the London Assembly where it’s possible LAB win an outright majority given the low polling for LDEM and Green.

  8. @TW – Yougov tables have London Assembly polling – from what i can see the figures are very similar to 2016. Main difference from Westminster VI is the Greens polling in double figures for both constituency and list (13% and 15%)

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8j36zntkp3/Results_FinalCallLondon_210504_W.pdf

  9. Congratulations to ManCity on getting to the Champions league final.

    Dream final ManCity v Barcelona. Sort of all Catalan final. City manager Pep Guardiola being from Catalonia and a big supporter of Catalan independence. :) :)

    Moving on…

    AW
    Thanks for the polling summery but you forgot about the 3 big elephants in the room. Irish border polling, Welsh independence surge roughly 33% and Scottish indy 50/50 with latest poll showing indy just in front.

  10. POLICE COMMISSIONER ELECTIONS

    I read somewhere 75% of people couldn’t even name their police commissioner. Just another layer of waffle. ):

  11. @ CMJ – West Yorks mayor will probably go to LAB but not a dead cert IMO

    As for the Heavy Woollen District Independents in Batley&Spen then certainly a winnable seat for the Blue team if their voters get behind a good local CON candidate and LAB make a bad selection choice (that seems to be one of the main problems LAB are facing in Hartlepool)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Woollen_District_Independents

    Their priorities map very closely to CON HMG (many of them already ‘done’)

    @ MP – West Midlands Mayor covers a combined authority that includes Birmingham but a lot of areas outside of Birmingham as well.

    In a ref in 2012 then Birmingham voted against an elected city Mayor so in order to get a devolved deal they created the West Midlands combined authority, with a Mayor role.

    CON turned a lot of the Westminster West Midlands seats Blue in GE’19 but a few narrowly escaped the net so valid point that LAB don’t want to be going backwards in West Midlands but Street likely has quite high incumbency value in the Mayor role.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_West_Midlands_mayoral_election#Results_by_local_authority

  12. I’ve got some serious doubts about the Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus MRP. Couldn’t find any ward level details but independent/other dropping by 203 councillors (35%) just seems wrong to me- I assume fragments of UKIP are not included in “others”?

    Plus the additional 250 councillors in new authorities puts a bit of potential spin on major party “gains”.

    I also think Lib Dems can probably dig in more than this poll suggests (much as I’d like them not to dig in!) and why would Greens lose seats when these elections were held when their national polling was much lower?

    I doubt this MRP can handle local factors very well.

  13. Polls I’m expecting tomorrow:

    ANOTHER Survation
    Ipsos MORI
    ComRes

    (BBS)

  14. @ FROSTY – Self oops from me. Managed to skip that bit!

    Makes more sense now[1] so I withdraw the LAB majority comment!

    [1] Green tactically voting LAB in GEs due to FPTP but voting for preferred party in a more PR system ‘makes sense’. However, that then makes it surprising to see Green so high in LA constituencies?

    IMO none of those were likely to change anyway (ie a split ABCON vote isn’t going to help CON win more constituencies) and even if it did it would come out in the ‘wash’ of the list vote

  15. SHEVll

    “I also think Lib Dems can probably dig in more than this poll suggests (much as I’d like them not to dig in!”
    ____

    My wee best new pal with the specks Mike Smithson has tipped his orange menace to do quite well in the Chesham and Amersham by-election.

    Lots of swingers in this corner of Buckinghamshire and no pun intended the Lib/Dems might “Buck” the trend in Swingershire :) :)

  16. We now have the answer to Chris Curtis’s “14%” question.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1389594182877171715

  17. OLDNAT

    BBS has (for the 3rd time) updated seat projections.

    New polling analysis and projection, YouGov 2nd – 4th of May 2021

    Holyrood seats projection:
    SNP ~ 70
    Conservative ~ 25
    Labour ~ 18
    Green ~ 12
    Lib Dem ~ 4

    (Three analysis pieces in a day, knackered!)
    _________

    Looking good for a super majority :) :)

  18. Thanks for the new thread and analysis Anthony. A bit surprised you didn’t comment on postal votes. I suspect it will be much higher than usual this time because of Covid.
    ———————-
    Allan Christie
    “I read somewhere 75% of people couldn’t even name their police commissioner.”

    I’m surprised it’s that low. I certainly couldn’t.
    ——————
    ON
    I couldn’t make head or tail of that link. Who are Chris Curtis and John Elledge and why are their views on where London stops important?

  19. @ AC – The Chesham and Amerham by-election will not be held this Thursday. We will get an idea of how it might go from the local ward data tis all.

    @ SHEVII – in 2017 (and 2019 which is relevant in some places) LDEM were polling higher nationally than they are now (about the same in 2016) which is why I had the view that LDEM would go lose seats and quite likely why the ‘prediction’ picks that up.

    With the collapse of UKIP then BXP then, yes, some of those councillors will be shown as ‘Ind/Other’

    Agree your other points. It would have been nice to see a ‘changes’ map but with boundary changes etc then all we have to go on is the districts council prediction list (and as per AW then “Not sure why the county elections were excluded” )

    Large pinch of salt for sure and being an overall net gain in numbers then far more chance both CON and LAB can claim a good result.

  20. @ AC – ‘Super Majority’ (for the relevance to how it might impact the ‘process’ of ‘Get(ting) Indy Done’ is a specific number, I’ll leave that someone in the specific polity to re-explain.

    IMO a large Indy majority and specifically an SNP outright majority might ‘help’ but TBC and no way am I going through all the process issues again.

  21. TREVS

    FFS that by-election was the main event for me. Well I’ll be keeping a close eye on the local ward data for any hints of swings towards the orange menace. :) :)

  22. TREVS

    “IMO a large Indy majority and specifically an SNP outright majority might ‘help’ but TBC and no way am I going through all the process issues again”
    _______

    Indeed leave it to the courts :) :)

  23. @TW

    Tracy Brabin nearly tripped up over brownies:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-56984746

  24. Supermajority;

    Certain votes at Holyrood such as changing the Electoral system need a 2/3rds majority not just over half.

    Currently there are 129 seats 9one of which is the Presiding Officer.

    So a majority is 65 and a Super majority is 86.

    70 SNP and 12 Greens is 4 short!

    Peter.

  25. Re: London Mayor

    The Count Binface vote is being underestimated. To prompt for some of the minor independents and not for Binface is regrettable.

    I’m not surprised Bailey is picking up a few more voters. Boris won two elections with the doughnut strategy and there is no way any Conservative candidate should be polling less than 30% on first preferences. Even a candidate as polarising as Bailey. Indeed the second preferences split shows not just that Bailey is polarising but that he is putting off a lot of non-Conservative voters altogether.

    The Green surge is real. Many Labour switchers to Green on first preferences but also voting Labour on second preferences A sign of what might be possible for the Greens if we had PR nationally (rather than just for the purpose of a dozen top us seats in the London Assembly)

    Hartlepool

    One of the most fascinating things to watch over the next few years is whether after the Covid emergency is over and the net benefit/loss of Brexit becomes more apparent, the Tories can retain red wall seats over the long term – I.e. whether the cultural shift in these seats is permanent, or if they will start slowly returning to Labour. We won’t find that out on Thursday as the Brexit hold is still strong and fresh in people’s minds. An easy win therefore for the Tories.

    Polling

    I can’t really fathom how some recent polls have placed Labour just a few percentage points being the Tories. If Hartlepool is an indicator that the red wall is still firmly Conservative (and I have seen no clear evidence to the contrary), the national share of the vote for Labour can’t really be higher than the very low 30s at most. Maybe this recent polling has merely demonstrated a short term knee jerk reaction of voters to apparent Tory sleaze.

    Scotland

    I wonder how the SNP might have done if not for the creation of Alba (the part not the country!). It clearly hasn’t helped the independence movement (at least not in the short term) and seems unlikely to gain seats either. I don’t follow Scottish politics closely enough to form an educated view on Alex Salmond’s motives. While he certainly poured his heart and soul into the independence cause whilst SNP leader, from this distance he seems to lack self awareness and self restraint. One or many independence leaders globally who has unfortunately personified the cause, without considering the consequences of such a strategy once his star has waned.

  26. RAF
    I tend to think that the cultural shift in the Red Wall seats is permanent, or as permanent as these things can be. With the loss of the old heavy industry and weakening of the unions (except in the public sector), the old sense of working class solidarity seems to be disappearing. Also, as another poster said, the party is perceived by many to be led by ‘woke’ university graduates who appear to have little understanding of ordinary folk outside London.
    In addition, many of the remaining Labour strongholds are in inner city areas relying on the votes of descendants of post-war immigrants. This in itself will be a source of conflict because of socially-conservative attitudes of many of those folk.
    My own (probably biased) opinion is that Labour is on a long-term decline unless they can get a few people like John Prescott or Dennis Skinner near the top of the party.

    Having said all that, I am conscious that the Tories permanent demise was confidently predicted on this site in the early years of this century. However, the Tories are ruthless and adaptable, whereas Labour are hampered by having ideals.

  27. RAF

    “I don’t follow Scottish politics closely enough to form an educated view on Alex Salmond’s motives.”

    Even those of us who do struggle to construct a coherent description of his motives!

    A large part of it seems likely to be ego – the need for rehabilitation of his reputation, and constructing a myth of the man (I use the gender term advisedly) who created the resurgent nation.

    The Alba Party construct does simply gather together a bunch of fundamentalist dissidents against the SNP gradualist strategy (which he established), together with those who advocate traditional male elitism and a strand of feminism which wishes society to establish “sexual apartheid” (equal but separate).

    I doubt that the party will be around long enough to be able to withstand the centrifugal forces that will drive it apart. Jim Sillar’s Scottish Labour Party, as well as the factionalism we see in far right and left groupings seem likely to force its disintegration.

    “Parties” whose policies, strategy, and candidate selection, are simply determined by the leader, in order to gather the dissidents don’t seem likely to last long.

    Leaders who have “unfortunately personified the cause” are not that uncommon – as a quick glance at Downing St under several of its former inhabitants would suggest.

  28. woke
    /w??k/
    Learn to pronounce
    verb
    past of wake1.
    adjectiveINFORMAL•US
    alert to injustice in society, especially racism.
    “we need to stay angry, and stay woke”
    ————–

    I’m Ok with being ‘woke’.

  29. The Trevs,
    “As for post lockdown1.0 onwards then I’ve stated many times that Boris needed to move quicker on regional tiers from Sep and he did ‘too little, too late’ once it was clear the Kent strain was more transmissible (Dec). ”

    The second wave starting when schools reopened in september happened largely in the North of England, not South. I hope by now we have debunked the argument made at that time, that his happened because of poverty in the north making transmission easier. The subsequent southern kent wave and indeed initial spring 2020 southern outbreak bely this, and show we have had an oscillation S-N-S. I see no way poverty could have altered in this manner to thereby cause transmission to wax and wane.

    The second wave was pushed by infection amongst youngsters at schools and universities. We proved that both by timing and the very high rates in that age group. The fact it did not happen in the south is only accountable by assuming those southern kids were immune. Which makes sense because the original spring outbreak started in the south, so southern kids were exposed earlier. Northern kids were somewhat protected by closing schools, which happened before lockdown.

    The september schools wave could have been prevented if those schools had not been shut down in the spring, at negligible cost in additional dangerous infections in the spring. Covid death toll has always been about how to stop high risk groups being infected by outbreaks in low risk groups, and getting the schools immune earlier would have accomplushed this.

    Hastings and some London schools had outbreaks of covid like illness early 2020, before the official start of the disease. Given the september experience that schools can indeed push the epidemic through a community, it is reasonable to assume there was a schools wave at the start of 2020, spreading via schools undetected. Maybe someone will in the future research this from school records to see if this could have been a major and hidden means of spread before it officially started.

    School age and parent of school age people are all in the pretty safe bracket who thus create no wave of hospitalisation which is how covid has always been first detected.

    You reckon restrictions in september were too little too late, but because they were slow to start, those areas which had highest spread in schools also had fastest end of the outbreak, and had time to peak and start falling before those restrictions were applied. Thus we know the disease would have burnt itself out without the restriction and with little or indeed no additional death. QED.

    There was clear evidence of growth of a new outbreak in November in South East England, ie Kent (and indeed adjacent eastern sussex such as Hastings). This wasnt so apparent during November, but once December figures were also available, it was very clear the rise of the Kent variant third wave was visible in figures from November too. Whether thats cases or ONS or King’s app. So no, the Kent Strain happened in November, probably originated in October even. By December it was clearly declining again in the earliest infected areas and peaked at the end of December regionally.

    So to reiterate, the third wave rose during November lockdown and started faling during the December temporary relaxation. Lockdown didnt work. QED.

    Government insists on using the description ‘more transmissable’, becaue it hides the obvious truth behind twhat has happened. People have failed to catch covid despite widespread infection because of immunity. The kent strain overcame exisiting immunity.

    It was proved people had immunity to covid before it arrived. This was done by testing old blood and finding it had an immune response neutralising covid. How this worked is less clear, but the explanation I have repeatedly heard is that immunity against other corona viruses also worked against covid.

    The best explanation of what has happened therefore is covid has adapted to escape that existing immunity, which was impefect anyway because it was created against different strains of corona. So what we have seen is a gradual process of people becoming more susceptible to covid as it steps around different aspects of our immunity, but at the same time these same people will develop instead a tailored immunity to the real corvid instead of to cousins. This has been shown to be as good or maybe better than vaccine induced immunity. (which is what would be expected)

    Government policy however has refused to permit antibody testing (people will remember it was banned by government in 2020), which would have allowed people for a year to be certified safe and go about their normal lives. Most people would have been thus released from lockdown by now

  30. Projecting ComRes 30 Apr – 4 May into seats (changes vs 23 – 27 Apr / vs 2016):

    SNP ~ 59 (-2 / -4)
    Conservative ~ 29 (+1 / -2)
    Labour ~ 26 (+2 / +2)
    Green ~ 10 (-1 / +4)
    Lib Dem ~ 5 (nc / nc)

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1389724368243236865

    Very much at the low end of the range for SNP (although even then still an Indy majority). As can be seen in BBS’s maps then SNP would be losing constituencies to come in that low and that seems unlikely, but certainly not impossible, IMO.

  31. Very good to see AW on here and many thanks to him

    PETE B and RAF
    Hello to you. The Spectator article which I picked up on twitter by Patrick Flynn says what you both are saying about Labour; basically the Labour Party has abandoned, or is seen as abandoning the traditional English communities outside big cities.

    Emily Thornberry’s tweet during a previous by election said it all IMO.

    Back in the 19th Century Disraeli and Salisbury spotted that the English working class voter was ‘Conservative in the noblest sense of the word; and at the present time the ‘high tory’ tradition is being continued into the present by ‘BJ’.

    On foreign policy I am reminded of Canning who succeeed Castlereagh in 1822: ‘For Europe, now and again read England; and you have a clue to my policy’ After Palmerston’s death in 1865 the Tories have been able most of the time to capture the grounds of a ;national’ policy combined with social amelioration and adaptability in fiscal policy.

  32. Good morning all from a very sunny Winchester.

    TREVS

    Another poll out this morning has the SNP on heading for a majority and Independence 52% no 48% Yes.

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2191954/scottish-election-polling-survey/?utm_source=twitter

  33. The SNP could be on course for a slim overall majority at Holyrood, paving the way for another showdown with Downing Street over independence, according to our exclusive eve-of-poll survey.

    Nicola Sturgeon’s party appears to be far enough ahead to pick up three more seats than in 2016, ending with 66 MSPs.

    That’s just over half of the 129 places in the Scottish Parliament, and would be enough for the SNP to govern alone and claim another mandate for a referendum.

    In the volatile race for second place, research for us by pollsters Survation suggests the Conservatives could cling on as the largest opposition group – but only just at a reduced 24 seats.

    Scottish Labour could slip back again by one seat to 23 despite signs of growing popularity for new leader Anas Sarwar. Lib Dems would remain unchanged with just five seats.

    Greens would do well on Survation’s results, picking up an extra five regional seats to reach a total of 11 MSPs.

    Independence majority
    The balance in favour of a referendum, when SNP and Greens are combined, would total 77 of the 129 MSPs in the chamber – all without any members elected from Alex Salmond’s Alba party.

    Meanwhile, Survation found support for independence had slipped back by a point from their last research in April. With people who don’t know taken out, the result is 52-48 in favour of the union – a result which still shows a major split across the country.

  34. CHRISLAINE, so one ill-advised tweet speaks for the whole Labour party in your eyes?

    It’s Daine Abbott all over again.

  35. Re Holyrood polling, Savanta ComRes is either alone in picking up a significant slide in SNP support or is wrong.

  36. Israel says they are ready to welcome British tourists.

    Is this what we are reduced to for a holiday…. Israel? ): ):

    Hopefully North Korean tourism will open up.. I would sooner travel there to watch my pal Kim open up a tractor factory with fluttering “American imperialism is doomed” flags at his side than travel to Nitin-Natoos Israel. ):

  37. Your Home Timeline
    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    9m
    New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 30 Apr – 4 May (changes vs 23 – 26 Apr):

    List:
    SNP ~ 36% (-1)
    Con ~ 21% (-1)
    Lab ~ 19% (+1)
    Grn ~ 10% (-1)
    LD ~ 7% (nc)
    Alba ~ 3% (+1)

    Constituency:
    SNP ~ 49% (+2)
    Con ~ 21% (nc)
    Lab ~ 21% (nc)
    LD ~ 8% (nc)
    Grn ~ 1% (+1)

  38. Chris,

    I guess the dilemma is, as you pointed out yesterday, that the traditional Labour vote of old could not deliver Election victories on their own.

    Either they get a turn after a long Tory period as time for a change wins out and/or they triangulate to get the extra votes needed.

    Triangulation of course puts in jeopardy long term those traditional voters, see the drop 1997-2005.

  39. This tweet is right on the mark

    Sophie Grace Chappell
    @SophieGraceCha1
    ·
    11h
    40% support for Tories in England = “the Conservatives have the solid backing of the country”
    50% support for SNP in Scotland = “the country is split down the middle”

  40. Allan
    Greece and Spain are ready to welcome British tourists it’s our regime that are preventing it.

  41. Precisely
    Much like the overwhelming support For Brexit that the regime and their propaganda outlet the BBC spouts on about based on 57% of the electorate voting for parties other than the regime in 2019.

  42. Jim Jam
    On past.performance the opposition will probably secure a plurality after a decade and a half of a government being in office.

    Mind you the opposition party in its daft quest for the mythical traditional Labour voter and being born again brexitanians is doing its best to buck the odds.

  43. Yes Steve 2028 I reckon, maybe a smaller country by then?

  44. Yougov tweet

    YouGov final Welsh Parliament voting intention (2021)

    CONSTITUENCY
    Lab 36% (+1 from 18-21 Apr)
    Con 29% (+5)
    Plaid 20% (-4)
    Reform UK 4% (nc)
    Lib Dem 3% (nc)

    LIST
    Lab 31% (-2)
    Con 25% (+3)
    Plaid 21% (-2)
    Abolish 7% (nc)
    Green 5% (nc)
    Lib Dem 4% (nc)

  45. Steve,
    “Mind you the opposition party in its daft quest for the mythical traditional Labour voter and being born again brexitanians is doing its best to buck the odds.”

    I did think Blair learnt that lesson 20 years ago. Labour at the moment seems to love fighting on terms dictated by con. Agreeing with the government on brexit and agreeing with it on covid, the top two issues of our time.

    Jim Jam,
    ” the traditional Labour vote of old could not deliver Election victories on their own.”

    There is such a fundamental change in society since those traditional labour issues created the labour political movement…why is anyone surprised?

    The red wall seats have been surviving on a moment in history frozen with the destruction of traditional industry in those places. Had they remained industrialised, they might have long since moved on and changed because of new blood and new ideas. So it might be they remained labour longer than was reasonable because of the loss of those industries.

  46. Yougov also had a Westminster VI for Wales

    Lab 37 (-)
    Con 36 (-)
    PC 14 (-4)
    RefUK 4 (+1)
    Green 3 (-1)
    Ldem 3 (+1)

    Interestingly, the biggest difference i could see between Westminster VI and Senedd VI was in North Wales – this area has a 10% lead for the cons for Westminster but level pegging between CON and LAB for the Senedd.- perhaps a sign that voters who switched to the conservatives in parts of NE Wales in 2019 might be more likely to switch back at this one? Small sample size etc and i guess there is not long to wait.

  47. @ AC – 50% support for Indy in Scotland = “the country is split down the middle”

    corrected that for ya ;)

    The ‘middle’ being the central belt that wants Indy and rScotland that doesn’t

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1387738845052080138/photo/1

    Sequencing innit. Now if SNP had stated that a majority = a mandate for Indy (rather than for IndyRef2) then maybe a win for Indy parties tomorrow could have started the ‘Tartan Divorce’ but yer wee lassie Nicola is only claiming a mandate for IndyRef2 (and we agree the courts will likely decide on that)

    For Brexit. We gave Cameron enough concern to get him to commit to EUref (GE’15). We won loads of votes in HoC to get that ref, we won the ref, we won the HoC vote Queen Gina got SC to demand, we won the two GEs that followed (quibble the GE’17 as a ‘draw’), we won the vote for Boris’s deal in HoC (backed by LAB) and importantly we had Article50 of the Lisbon Treaty (although extensions pushed out the 2yrs and the ECJ slipped in the possibly to revoke which took the game to a penalty shoot out in GE’19 – which we won (thanks once again to LAB for gifting Boris the GE he needed to ‘Take Back Control’ of HoC from the Remainers)

    It was a painful drawn out ‘frustrating’ process nightmare but despite all the dirty tricks and shenanigans of Project Fear/Remain we ‘Got Brexit Done’ in the end.

    For Indy then it’s a long road ahead but tomorrow will be the first step on what will then be an irreversible path – outcome still TBC with lots of hurdles to jump.

    It might not be fully resolved before GE’24 (but possibly ‘via’ GE’24) and then they’ll be ‘transition’ (or maybe not – with no Article50, etc then ‘No Deal’ instant Scexit is possible)

    Some irony in the swapping of jerseys. CON+U are now Remain.UK (from Leave.EU) and can only play ‘Project Fear’, frustration and dirty tricks (don’t be naive to think otherwise) where as SNP are now Leave.UK (from Remain.EU) and have to play the ‘land of wind of haddock’ and ‘Take Back Control’ side.

    Important 1st step tomorrow and then let the games begin!

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