A new YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has Labour’s lead up to ten points. The topline figures, with changes from YouGov’s last poll, conducted for the Telegraph, are CON 32% (nc), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 14%(-2). It is Labour’s largest so far under Gordon Brown but, as with the MORI poll yesterday which showed Labour’s lead down a point, the changes from the previous poll are not themselves significant, so the wider picture seems to one of the Labour lead holding steady. The poll also equals the lowest level of Lib Dem support that YouGov have recorded.

I’ve before that I don’t think there is any realistic chance of an autumn election – there simply wouldn’t be enough time for Gordon Brown to be sure that the Labour lead in the polls wasn’t ephemeral. My assumption is that talk of elections this year is no more than media speculation and Gordon Brown keeping the opposition guessing. However, if Labour’s lead gets large enough then who knows, a snap election may become a real possibility. This is the first double point lead for Labour under Brown, and it’s looking as if, for whatever reason, the Brown bounce is producing larger leads in YouGov’s polls than in those of other pollsters. If other pollsters were to start regularly showing the same sort of lead we may yet be into snap election territory.

UPDATE: There is also an ICM poll in the Sunday Mirror – headline voting intentions, with changes from ICM’s most recent poll, are CON 33%(+1), LAB 39%(+1), LDEM 18%(-2). Once again, there is no change in the Labour lead. Difference pollsters are producing Labour leads of different magnitudes, but in every case the story seems to be that the lead is stabilising.


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